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Whilst the market and Oil Co's in particular were up this morning, G was muted - with profit taking being the predominant characteristic in the first 40 minutes. I think it rather bears out Leem's observations. My own take is that G's recent strength has been underpinned by significant buyers who came in at up to around 120. They may well hold firm but it's going to take a strong nudge to move much higher, with 127 presenting a significant level of resistance.

Article (NB restarting 'shuttered production' is not the same as resuming drilling):
A couple of high-profile shale companies voiced optimism at the start of June. EOG Resources said it plans to “accelerate” production in the second half of 2020, finding prevailing oil prices sufficient to step up drilling activity. The company also reduced its hedging exposure, a sign that the company is bullish about the trajectory of prices.
In addition, in an investor presentation, Parsley Energy also said that it is bringing back the “vast majority” of its curtailed production in June. Parsley shut down around 400 wells in March.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Oil-Drillers-Restart-Production-As-Prices-Recover.html

Yes Leem - I tend to agree with your amazement. However do you remember the strong buying by interested parties rather than PI's, which took the price up to 130p in the first half of April? At that stage OP was around $32, so significantly lower than today. G was obviously seen as a good recovery stock. I don't have a problem with that.

An 'interesting' few minutes after 16.30...makes the charts look significantly different than they otherwise might have been:
G, daily : https://invst.ly/q-qnq
G trading 15': https://invst.ly/q-qpy
Brent v Oil Cos's 15' since Friday: https://invst.ly/q-qqc
Will G now remain solidly in a 118-127 range and might it even make an attempt to capture 127 and trade higher? Last week G managed to touch 128 prior to ex-div but OP has since risen enough to more than cover the ex-div discount.

It’s never wrong to take a profit and today offers a quick 6% or more for those (like me) that perhaps bought a few yesterday. Indeed, 123 looks a possibility on the 15’ minute view, although the steam may be going out of it as I type: https://invst.ly/q-lf0

But what about longer term? There’s not much point selling unless you can see a re-entry at a usefully lower level or you are making a more permanent exit. G’s long term picture has been improving all the while: https://invst.ly/q-lfp and now the dividend factor is out of the way and OP is steadying above $35 the picture is becoming simpler though there are still plenty of uncertainties!

G may now be establishing itself above support at 118 and could be knocking on the 127 door again soon. Then there’s the gap up to 137 - a gap that appears at some level in many sp’s. Admittedly 137 probably requires OP to be around $45 - so it may be a while off yet.

Because I’ve traded G since the drop, reducing my net cost per share and building back up to my original core level of holding, I’m more sanguine about watching to see what happens to G in the 120-133 range. And if G jumps the gap before my ‘safety alternative’, RDS, (or vice versa) then there’s a fairly obvious move that could be made.

Fair comments by Leem and Jim.

Much now depends on a steady strengthening in OP. On the supply side of the equation the recovery of Shale production would certainly be a limiting factor on price and it's interesting to note the big difference between the economics of continuing to run an existing frack well compared to drilling a new one:

Article: Achilles’ Heel of Shale

The quick turnaround in oil markets is exposing the shale industry’s big weak spot: Lightning-fast production declines. Shale gushers turn to trickles so quickly that explorers must constantly drill new locations to sustain output...
Left unchecked by new drilling, oil production from U.S. shale fields probably would plummet by more than one-third this year to less than 5 million barrels a day, according to data firm ShaleProfile Analytics. That would drastically undercut U.S. influence in world energy markets and deal a major blow to President Donald Trump’s ability to wield crude as a geopolitical weapon.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/oils-sudden-rebound-is-exposing-the-achilles-heel-of-shale/ar-BB14wxh9

But surely the divi was never worth more than about 8p, Hydrogen, and is now 'gone' as far as any current sp calculation is concerned?

As seemed possible in the chart earlier, G seems to be heading back towards the 118-120 trading zone, https://invst.ly/q-7de which at $38 Brent would put the sp (p) at just over 3.1x OP($) - so ‘normalising’ to some extent as the old 3x chart demonstrates, https://invst.ly/q-7c- , although G went a lot weaker v OP under less adverse circumstances a year ago.

It is sobering to see how much the Oil Co’s have lost v the FTSE 100 overall, with RDS so far failing to recover from its dismal Q1 Results on 30/4/20.

Just to elaborate on that last post, there's a longer term trend (orange) that might continue..or might not, as G could be at a decision point:https://invst.ly/q-16g (hourly chart).

Mixed messages this morning, perhaps, but a 15' view since last Thursday suggests G may be turning upwards from the falling red onto the blue trend here: https://invst.ly/q-0ll

Cautionary Article: Oil in for Best Month, Even as Rig Cuts Decline, Stockpiles Climb

The latest survey of oil drilling patches by industry firm Baker Hughes on Friday showed a reduction of only 15 oil rigs this week, versus drops more than 60 per week during several weeks over 2-1/2 months.

While the oil rig count is down 68% as a whole since the week ended March 13, the rate of decline has slowed in recent weeks, indicating that drillers were holding back on cuts as the surge in crude prices lure them to put out more barrels in return for more cash.
https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-in-for-best-month-even-as-rig-cuts-decline-stockpiles-climb-2130311

typo correction: The long term trends for Brent (red in the chart below) have been downward for more than five years, since well before the plunge from $110+.....

Longer term:
The long term trends for Brent (red in the chart below) have been downward for more than five years, since well before the plunge from 110p+. These trends have been countered by shorter term rising trends (blue) with sharp moves through trend lines invariably triggered by mismatches of supply (mainly driven by US Shale) and demand (market factors including the recent global virus related issues). Judging from this history, the likely price range for Brent by year end would appear to be in the shaded ellipse here: https://invst.ly/qz69h , a range of $35 to $53, centred near $45. This range includes the $40 estimate recently given by Morgan Stanley for end of year and is in line with their longer-term view of $45: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-research-morganstanley-oil/morgan-stanley-sees-tighter-oil-market-raises-brent-forecast-idUSKBN23300S?rpc=401&

There is room for error, of course, but it does define the likely extremes as we progress out of the current slump in price and as the gap down in OP, from about $45, gets filled. For G it suggests an sp of between 112 (35x3.2) and 145 (45x3.2) during the period if the current ratio holds without dilution as OP improves.

Despite my earlier post, you have to admire G’s resilience this week - going ex-div on a yield of about 6% (at 125p) but not coming out bottom of the pack on a week by week basis:
https://invst.ly/qz3-f
That dubious honour was going to RDS, which has been lamentable of late, until GKP stumbled at the close, with Chevron doing little better and very marginally behind G at the close. It was a four day week in the US and UK, of course, the full five days for Oil and DNO.

And a cliff-hanger at the close - is G about to crack the downward trend of the last couple of days? https://invst.ly/qz436 or will Monday see it continue towards 111?
Much will depend, most likely, on OP and market sentiment.

Thanks Whitehat, I'm very grateful for the correction - I had forgotten about the override suspension, that's a major factor.

It looks like G is now in one of its typical short term downtrends (red on this 15min chart): https://invst.ly/qy-z7 which was partly triggered by ex-div but seems to be continuing.
The weakness against Brent (green) is also apparent and the ratio of G(p):OP($) has now dropped back to under 3.3. Unless it rallies soon then 109-111 looks like a natural destination.

At least G saw receipts of $3.2m for April from the KRG yesterday, just before the end of May - I wonder how far it goes to covering operating costs? - The next T&O update will presumably enlighten us.

During April I reckon Brent averaged $26.5 and for May I estimate it’ll be nearer to $32 - a 20% increase. But a pro-rata calculation does not give an encouraging picture - let’s hope there is more to it than that, especially if Brent will average less than $40 for the remainder of the year. Also, we need to bear in mind how damaging sub $40 will have been as far as the override payments are concerned. The end-value of that agreement will have suffered a big dent.

In what way?

Yes - Hydrogen is probably the future path and a natural lead-in for some oil+gas producers (the energy source - not our homonymous and excellent poster ). Musk can afford to make mistakes and, in any case, he probably doesn't care that there isn't enough Lithium for everyone on the planet - just as long as he can sell a lot of cars.

Today's finish was strong - with a convenient tweak upwards at the close - against a background of lower OP through the day (Brent losing about a $1 overall), so the stage is set for a 118 or better start tomorrow, with any luck.
The delayed EIA report will be out in the afternoon and, as Hasiba says, a reasonable inventory draw could make the recovery from ex-div even quicker.
15 min chart with Brent (green): https://invst.ly/qy4wd