Member Info for Boyobach

At least G is chasing OP today bunks. Back in early April G was at a similar sp whilst OP was under $34. https://invst.ly/r7vku

Well OP certainly isn't weakening Bunks - steadily rising since the intra-day low on the 12th:
https://invst.ly/r7mq3
G and RDSb look pretty sad by comparison. But they did bounce back a bit sharply ahead of OP in April . DNO was more measured but has continued to rise more solidly.
https://invst.ly/r7mku . G:Brent ratio continues to slump - now below 2.8x. I hope Hydrogen is right about Bina - I don't like the idea of going into Q3 below 3x Brent.
GKP lagging the field presumably due to the revenue outlook in light of the discount on Shaikan product?

Here’s a 20 year Brent price chart which indicates how, prior to the COVID-19 collapse, OP was tending towards a range centred around $57 and why, unless US production collapses to pre-shale levels, OP could be expected to stay within +/- $15 of that level during the projected lifetime of fossil fuels, with the top end of that range likely to be suppressed by plentiful supply and declining demand. Notice that Brent has just about regained the bottom end of this range:
https://invst.ly/r6ylv
The red ‘ceiling’ trend on the chart corresponds quite closely to the increase in US production from July 2011 which, for reference, is shown on this chart:
https://www.macrotrends.net/2562/us-crude-oil-production-historical-chart’
This second chart also shows that the current reduction in US Production has taken it down to April 2018 levels, which did allow Brent to rise above $70 for about 8 months. However there was no recession in progress at that point. It remains to be seen, of course, if shale production declines much further. In the meantime, OP will be doing very well if it manages to match the levels it achieved through the summer months of 2016, after the last rout.

The presence of Turkish troops pursuing the PKK has never been much of a problem for the KDP although they make the required noises of protest. The PKK are not pals of the Barzani's so the Turkish incursion is possibly welcomed despite being an embarrassment.
Remember, too, the fuss that Baghdad (PM al Abadi) made three years ago when 2000 Turkish troops remained at Bashiqa camp near Mosul after IS was defeated there? Basically the Turks come and go as they please in Iraq - it causes a bit of noise but not much happens politically or militarily.

Yes bunks - swings and roundabouts in the parks may be shut but they continue in the market...
G back below 3x OP, which was inevitable at some point. It's starting to look like the new 'top' has been established assuming OP stays south of $45 - which seems likely. https://invst.ly/r6r7y

I'm a bit surprised that G's welcome confirmation of payment for May production took second place on this BB to the GKP RNS today. I know it was only 2.65 x last months but that's a big improvement and 'on time' too. We need all the positives we can get.

Whilst Oil Co shares remain flat, OP has moved ahead this week, near May's highs. The usual group since last Friday's close: https://invst.ly/r6mni

Here’s a snapshot of Brent v G, (daily Brent candlesticks so G is the red line) taken this morning. Note the current Brent price line (dashed):
https://invst.ly/r656m
The point of this is to demonstrate - as if it were necessary - that since June 11th G has followed the market rather than OP and that, were it not for that market influence, G would be nearer to 140p today. Ultimately, IMO, OP responds directly to the reality of supply and demand whereas the market tends to respond in the short term according to sentiment and, only somewhat later, to reality. The trend in OP may have taken a step back on the 11th but it remains mainly positive into the $40+ range, which should maintain G 's sp in the 120-140 range.

'Oil prices finish lower as U.S. crude supplies edge higher and product stocks decline'
(link to full article below):
“Any hopes around oil prices pushing higher in the short term have been squashed by global growth concerns, rising U.S. stockpiles and coronavirus related developments,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM. “The road ahead for oil is filled with many obstacles as concerns over fresh outbreaks of coronavirus cases create demand-side uncertainties.......Given how the technical picture mirrors the fundamentals, the path of least resistance for oil points south, with $40 acting as a potential ceiling for WTI crude if nothing changes on the macro front,” he told MarketWatch.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-retreat-as-investors-await-inventory-reports-from-opec-and-eia-2020-06-17

A very poor day for G:
1) Dropped below 3x OP for first time since March.
2) Biggest fall amongst the three KRI Cos.
3) Effectively back down to the nominal 118 support line and at the bottom of the medium-term trend it has been following since early April.
https://invst.ly/r5wa1

O/T Re Ceres: Well that's what I decided to do Rangor - I sold 50% at around the top today but obviously there's the calculated risk that I may not get a good price when I top back up. But for every trade that doesn't pan out there'll be another one in due course. With shares that are trending up you can jump in and out and accrue profits - much harder to do with one that's falling, like G in H2 2018!

Well it's good to know there are still a few people interested in G.
I happen to find it easier to spot a trend and potential limits from a picture. I also like to figure out when G is being influenced by something other than OP and perhaps moving a bit too far ahead of it.
Yes G came a cropper, with the rest of the market, on the 11th but, TBF, the price had already been cycling back down for three days prior, so there was plenty of opportunity to sell a few in anticipation (15 minute chart with Brent in green): https://invst.ly/r5em5 .Interesting to see that lift to the closing price again today.
And just as Friday and yesterday looked like they could be good opportunities to buy G if you were minded too, there are some obvious levels where a subsequent profit might be taken: https://invst.ly/r5er6
Thanks to Hasiba I'm doing rather nicely with Ceres (CWR) - that's been quite a nice one for selling highs and topping back up on lows. But I would not do it without a chart to guide me.

HUh?
Continuing the subject of sheep, idiots and crazy....
How does today's UT come out at the day's peak price, hit briefly hours beforehand in the morning, and a full $1.8 above the day's apparent closing price ?
https://invst.ly/r5097
Someone technical with an abacus please explain.
It may look good now but, of course, it sets a high bar for tomorrows open. Plus it makes a mockery of charts based on open and closing prices

Hey - good result today.
Looks like G's lower prices got tested and the SP may not be going in that direction. Phew!
https://invst.ly/r4--y
BP have apparently got big write-downs in mind - smart accounting maybe? I've heard that before somewhere.
Let's hope the API don't mess things up tomorrow and that EIA are on the same page as them on Wednesday....
It's extraordinary to think that the market slavishly follows the inventory of a land-locked tank farm in Oklahoma with no direct export capability. Ha! But that's the crazy product we are invested in.
The market is largely sheep, one loud bang and they follow the first idiot to move....

Something of a battle to stay 'on trend' (orange) today (following on from my 'Mid June onwards post, yesterday) .
Could get sticky if it slips from here.
https://invst.ly/r4wmt

Since early April, G has been following the orange trend in this 32 month chart: https://invst.ly/r4gey . There’s a closer view below.
It will not follow it indefinitely, of course, as it is a medium term trend strongly influenced by a similar trend in OP. So the likelihood is that, at some point in coming weeks or monts, the sp will move off the orange trajectory onto one of the much longer term, and less precisely placed, blue trends.

G is currently resting at the bottom of both orange and blue trends whilst, near the top edge, 152 represents potential resistance and is about the limit of what an OP of $43 might support in terms of G:OP ratio. Unless OP recovers to much nearer $50, the conclusion is fairly obvious. https://invst.ly/r4gjc

That Was The Week That Was: Five days of dropping back with G regrettably leading the pack (over 16% down):
https://invst.ly/r40uf
Never mind. Next week should be better.
Chart= 15 min review of the week from last Friday’s close, G, GKP, DNO, RDSb, Chevron Brent (LCO/August), FTSE 100.

'Chameleon' : yes bunks - Trading Guy' and 'Mr Long-Term' are often at odds with each other. Today, 'Trading Guy' won the argument - TBF the chart I posted earlier was irresistible! - especially on a 15' view. I did keep cash back in the event of an unlikely drop to 110 ish. To be perfectly honest (I rarely trust people who start a sentence like that btw) I have come to realise that I'd have done much better over the years if I'd traded G more aggressively with no expectation of long-term gain. As a 'keeper' it's been a pretty rubbish relationship. It's a shame 'trading guy' didn't win the argument last Friday!!
Also:
'thought we'd claw at least a few %back in a surprisingly buoyant market today' - that's G for you bunks, often lagging, often leading but rarely 'in sync'. 'Tis a bu55er to be sure. Despite the lack of spark today, things are looking good from here, I'd say. 130 shouldn't be such a tough nut to crack next time and 137 is only a matter of time and OP above $40. 152 doesn't look likely to me unless OP gets to $45. July could be good for that - fireworks for Independence Day maybe? Ha!

A longer term view - showing Brent (green) - is perhaps more enlightening. G always follows OP except when it doesn't: https://invst.ly/r3wak .

In a reversal of intentions, partly on the basis of that trend, I added some G today - keeping cash back in case of further market drops.