Member Info for Boyobach

I think we should expect pretty much what they indicated in the last T&O Update, Tartine. Almost certainly nothing more and quite possibly a bit less. Which leaves plenty of scope for nothing very much in fact. Something like:
Sarta: civils done but no oil till Q4 at the very earliest. Qara Dagh - on hold but utterly ready to go at the drop of a hat. Some anticipated decline in production at Taq Taq and Tawke due to reduced cap-ex. Bina Bawi will continue to be rather like an embarrassing prima donna that stubbornly remains centre stage but never gets to sing a note - distracting the audience and impossible to remove discreetly whilst the spotlight rests upon them. Time to shift the spotlight maybe.

G for the last month:
https://invst.ly/ri5jv
Brent for the last month:
https://invst.ly/ri5m0

I don't feel the div is a major factor, H - there are no guarantees about the next one. I'm with Leem in terms of the toppy feel to the sp. This morning's price action, based again on low volumes, flew in the face of logic with OP experiencing downward pressures and whilst the market and oil majors are in retreat . So I took some more profits at the top as everything about the price spells imminent pull back to me. If it were to crack and hold 152 then the sp will be performing almost as well against OP as it did at last November's peak - before the KRI payment issues and COVID . I just can't see that being sustained, I also think the chart is starting to show signs of a reversal - in the form of a possible doji day just below the 152 resistance . It's not infallible as an indicator, of course. https://invst.ly/ri3ds

Thanks guys - all valid points.

My take-aways from the chart comparisons were firstly how, in the two year chart from an appropriately selected start date , Chevron provides a reference line for G indicating when it has outperformed its ‘normal’ level - as per the summer of 2018 and the first five months of 2019 but with diminished frequency since then. By this measure it’s only slightly above par presently.

Secondly, I became more aware of how similarly DNO and GKP have reacted since October. These are G’s main KRI peers which, as different as they are, nevertheless suffer the same local geopolitical issues. So if Chevron, in this comparison, plots out G’s ‘normal’ then DNO/GKP roughly represent where G could have been based on similar performance ie around 100p today (bearing in mind the chart places GKP and DNO nearly 10% lower than G at their respective worst points). Rightly or wrongly, I regard this as G’s immediate ‘downside’ risk.

By these comparisons it seems fair to conclude that G sometimes punches above its weight (reflecting Leem’s view) but because of company specific prospects (as per Hydrogen’s list - especially the more tangible items).

Note to self: Remain ‘slightly underweight’ unless a clear buying opportunity presents itself in the next 13 trading days. Set suitable stop losses as 6th August approaches and re-evaluate the whole thing after that.

150p is a key level and investment review point for me in G’s post-slump sp recovery. G has reached it as OP appears to be relatively stable, given that OPEC+ seem to have achieved their immediate objective of nursing the price up to $40+ whilst avoiding a disruptive revival of US Shale. Whether Brent will get to $45 remains to be seen - it looks promising but I somehow doubt it will get much further this year, giving a likely overall 2020 average in the region of $43.

G’s recovery has been quite remarkable - especially since June 23rd - so the question uppermost in my mind is whether this progress is realistic and sustainable. For this I’ve been pondering the following chart of G’s sp (with volumes) against Brent, Chevron, DNO and GKP from October (a time when G was running at around ‘normal’ 3x Brent, there were no COVID or KRG issues and OP was just below $60 but rising). Chevron is my chosen benchmark ‘major’ as it outperformed both Exxon and RDS over the period:

https://invst.ly/rhi2w

So you can validate my choice of re-base point with Chevron, here’s a two year chart with a very similar re-base: https://invst.ly/rhicw

Yes - although it didn't drop out of the trend in May like it did today after my post. Monday should confirm but I now anticipate more of a pull-back this time around.

G was slowed down to some extent today by its best challenge yet on the upper blue trend line at 149 - below which it can only be described as levelling out. Captured it too - let’s hope it can hold onto it on Monday.
https://invst.ly/rhaz6

So, whilst G may be bottom in this week’s running order since last Friday’s close: https://invst.ly/rhasw
that’s the price of leading the group for a few weeks and encountering a barrier. It was only to be expected at some point - RDSb and GKP, in particular, have some serious catching up to do. DNO on steroids today it seems.
G remains leader of the group since Mar 1st: https://invst.ly/rha-y

I just lobbed this onto the CWR board, will continue the topic there if it warrants:
Events this week may trigger a spell of consolidation for the sp if it falls out of the rising trend (orange) that it has enjoyed since mid-March. https://invst.ly/rh55x
Not necessarily a bad thing but the price does seem to be at a decision point: pull back to 520 or regain 590.

Events this week may trigger a spell of consolidation for the sp if it falls out of the rising trend (orange) that it has enjoyed since mid-March. https://invst.ly/rh55x
Not necessarily a bad thing but the price does seem to be at a decision point: pull back to 520 or regain 590.

When a price falls into a wedge pattern - as Brent is currently - there is certainty that the pattern cannot continue and must be broken, removing at least one of the apparent constraints: https://invst.ly/rh4bu . There is obviously some upward pressure but will it be enough to break through the lid?

I don't think you'll be disappointed long-term Rangor. This week's placing by Berenberg certainly shook the tree and, mixing metaphors, knocked the froth off the sp, which may take a while to get back into its stride - quite possibly at a more subdued pace. Worth remembering that IP disposed of 12.5m shares around 2 months ago (with a lock-up period of 90 days) and that this week's was an apparently smaller tranche of 9.1m but had a bigger % effect on the sp. They are reportedly almost out now with just 0.2% . I guess it could have been anticipated by anyone watching it closely - smart move selling the rest before the 90 days?? I'm guessing the price might move sideways or even soften until that period is well out of the way. If I start to seriously accumulate/trade it then I'll go on the CWR board (will flag it here) . Good luck with it.

Cheers bunks - but I realise it's a thin line.

O/T Rangor: If CWR drops below 560 could get interesting: https://invst.ly/rgrtb. Might need to move this convo to CWR.

Five weeks on since June 8th (marked on chart) and both G and Brent are back to the same levels. Here are the usual runners and riders since Mar 1st - with PMO added for consistency with my other long term comparison: https://invst.ly/rgqi6
G leading the field and ahead of the FTSE100 over this particular 'COVID dominated' period.

Break out or Level out then?
https://invst.ly/rgowo

180 with Brent below $45 would see me out of G.

Like on 23rd June and 6th July? OP has been fairly flat since then so not sure why we'd be due one, bunks.
Would be nice though. We're going to need some help to get over 152, I think
https://invst.ly/rgf9l

Continuing the theme of G against the five other Oil Co’s in the race since $86 Brent, just over 22 months ago:G has rarely performed this well against the others. Yes there have been occasions when G has experience strong rallies but as a LT Hold over that period G has remained below Chevron, has rarely been above RDS but usually above the other KRI companies and PMO:
https://invst.ly/rf-bo (G v selected Oil Co’s, Brent and FTSE100).
The next test will come in terms of the longer term recovery phase of the cycle. To date PMO, DNO, GKP and RDS have not recovered with OP as much as G. So the question is whether G will maintain its lead or whether it will lag as the others make up ground. G’s recent comparative strength against the others reflects its stronger ratio to OP - it started at just 2.9x and you can more clearly see how it has developed from there if I just leave G and Brent on the chart, where G crosses the solid green Brent line at 2.9x:
https://invst.ly/rf-nj

O/T Re CWR:
Hopefully you got a good opportunity today Rangor, with the secondary placing arranged for IP Group.by Berenberg. That support line at 580 was a good guide as far as the subsequent price action has been, with today's bottom only briefly touching 557. I was happy to re-stock at 576 - my net cost per share over less than two months is just 3.84 so I'm well happy to be 54% up and still 'in' for the next phase.

Some commentators/media are characterising the current OP as 'a slump' - it's hardly that. Certainly it is levelling out, much as expected and looks to be on course for a 2020 'whole year' average of $42-$43 - also as expected.
https://invst.ly/rfugo
G, meanwhile, is settling back towards its average ratio to OP of 3.15x, currently down to 3.3x - so about 7p above par by my reckoning. It'll be interesting to see if 137 holds if OP softens further and it gets tested.
https://invst.ly/rfun1