Member Info for Boyobach

Brent may be marching steadily, if slowly, upward:
https://invst.ly/rs77a

But $48 looks a couple of months away at this pace:
https://invst.ly/rs796
So don’t get too excited about KRG back-payments

When a headline doesn’t quite match the content:

Headline:
Oil Prices Leap Higher On Bullish Inventory Data
Last Line:
Brent crude was trading at $45.22 a barrel at the time of writing, with West Texas Intermediate at $42.40 a barrel, both slightly up on Tuesday’s close.

So ‘leap higher’ is really just ‘slightly up’ ?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Prices-Leap-Higher-On-Bullish-Inventory-Data.html

Cheers Rangor - G always seem a bit slow updating the latest Dividend details on the website.

At the mid-week point, G is looking a bit weak since Friday, with sleeping giant RDS finally showing some spark. Chevron seems likely to join RDS on the weekly leaderboard if this afternoon's EIA stats confirm yesterday’s API figures - although there’s never any certainty that they will:
https://invst.ly/rs1-8 .
RDS needs to add about £4 (33%) to its current sp in order to catch up with G’s performance since March 1st:
https://invst.ly/rs21l .
Bearing in mind recent comments concerning G and KRG payments, it seems likely that we’ll have to wait until Brent advances more purposefully towards $48 for the next significant and lasting boost to G.

G have made three dividend payments so far, the last being the 2019 Final, paid on 29th June
They have just confirmed the next one, which will be the 2020 Interim, I don't believe a date has been given but the 2019 interim was paid in Jan 2020 (ex -div in December) so I guess this will be similar.

Leem1 - 135
Boyo - 142
Mark888man - 144
Whitehat - 146
Broadland - 150
Hasiba.....155

Well done Mark.

Not surprisingly G is bottom of the rankings for this week:
https://invst.ly/rq06b

Despite the market disappointment yesterday and today's closing auction, G continues to lead the Covid-19 list from March 1st, also ahead of the FTSE100 over the period - but only just:
https://invst.ly/rq05z

It’s worth remembering just how much some of the contenders have to go in order to catch up: RDS may be at an attractive level but it’s not a nimble mover ordinarily.

Leem: They don’t know if and when the outstanding payments might arrive and it does not sound imminent.
The KRG have said that overdue payments will commence when OP is over $50. So, yes, not imminent but not indeterminate either.

Despite ordinarily being less optimistic than many around here, bunks, I don’t think today sucked. G’s sp reached about 195 in mid January at an OP of $65, which equates to 132 on a pro-rata basis with OP at $44, and I view today’s sp with that 'pre-crash' context in mind.
I thought today’s report was as good as it could be, given all the headwinds faced by G, and was reassured by the tone, the numbers and the demonstration of effective management control. I was slightly surprised by the announcement of an interim dividend but it is clearly manageable without detriment to the business and shows a firm commitment to investors that was first made over a year ago - well before the difficulties of Cov-19, OP crash and KRG payments came along. I had no great expectations regarding Bina Bawi so was entirely unfazed by that but was pleasantly surprised to learn that Sarta is still on schedule for production in Q4.

Hasiba - ‘Try to convince me..’
I’m certainly not trying to convince you Hasiba. I’ve often thought much the same about the risks to G and I have losslessly reduced my capital exposure to G by 60% over the last six months as a consequence. Whatever you decide to do I wish you good luck.

In my view the company has played a straight bat on all the issues and, if I have a problem with their handling (I don’t at the moment), then - like everyone here - I can simply pull out entirely. From an sp pov, G has actually outperformed all the oil co’s that I regularly track during COVID-19 and further back, which does mean that some - like RDS - have some catching up to do and may currently represent a good opportunity. I’m currently overweight RDS but I might switch that if their respective positions reverse over the next few months.

I generally agree L3Trader - particularly about the KRG.
But could they diversify whilst also re-purchasing bonds and paying a dividend? I don't think all those objectives are simultaneously achievable.

I'm sure many feel the same as you Hasiba and, indeed, I was also focused on the gas two years ago. But the Miran write-down put an end to all that for me. The report is solid, in my view, without any obvious hype - I liked this line:
'The Company has a portfolio that contains assets with material value creation possibilities, with discovered resource with the potential to add incremental value to the share price greater than the current market capitalisation of the Company. '

Genel are clearly negotiating for that money rather than demanding it.....

There's a lot to negotiate and it's much more complicated than just the recent receivables - there's the over-ride issue as well. All this has been achieved before with the KRG (the overdue receivables is a lot less than last time btw).
As Bill says: 'While the mechanism through which the receivable from the KRG will be recovered has yet to be finalised, we are confident that a solution that works for both parties will be found, as has been done in the past, and our discussions with the KRG continue.'

It beats me how 'unprepared' some investors in G really are. But then I forget how long the company has been navigating through all its setbacks and how new some investors are.

I don't think you are that much out of step with the market, Leem, judging by the way the sp is moving today. There probably has been more anticipation about Bina Bawi than there should have been. After years around G, I still can't understand the eternal optimism that persists around the gas reserves. But as an oil co they are doing OK - the report was solid under the circumstances.

The thing is, Leem & f15, was there anything in today's report that came as a nasty surprise? There shouldn't have been.
Was there anything that fell below your expectations? If you were expecting there to be something significant about Bina Bawi or payment of receivables then, to be honest, you've been in 'wishful thinking' mode and not paying attention to what the company has been saying (and not saying).

The position re Bina Bawi shouldn't be a surprise to any of us. I'm glad there was no attempt to present it in a more positive spin.
The report does not draw a veil over their own disappointment: '[april's] documentation did not adequately reflect the commercial concepts ....'
Those concepts were presumably the ones they arrived at in September/October 2019.
The imminent exploitation of Bina Bawi does not appear to be built into the sp, which is frankly just as well.
Regarding Hasiba's observations about the KRG: G is a KRI producer and has been since the before the London listing - so anyone invested in G must accept that the company is reliant upon dealing with the KRG . It's a known and, to that extent, priced-in risk.

You need to scroll past the 'Enquiries' section in order to get to the detail of the report, including the mention of Bina Bawi quoted by Rangor.

Just over half way through the week and the market is fairly active, with Brent touching $46 today - which could easily put G at 157 on recent performance. Since last Friday it’s been GKP’s week - up 10% as I type. https://invst.ly/rou71

G, however, still leads the field from Mar 1st (with BP added to the list this week):
https://invst.ly/rou7c

'rate of progress'

480 proved to be something of a barrier in May as CWR was on the climb upwards and such points of resistance tend to remain in the landscape. After 480, CWR did rocket to 580 in about six days - I don't expect that fate of progress this time. In fact it dropped back from there and eventually consolidated around 535 before making a final attack on 580. So, in terms of progress this time around, I'd say that 535 would be the next significant resistance once 480 has been regained.
https://invst.ly/ros79 .