Member Info for Boyobach

Fair points Marcus - but as an investor there is a limit to the latitude we might give a supposedly world-class company. I daresay there has been some prudent and timely kitchen-sinking going on. Write downs of resources may be very smart from an accounting pov, for example. Yet the fact remains that, even against a 2-bit outfit like GKP - which hasn’t been paid for a large percentage of the oil it has recently produced, RDS is barely holding its own. And since 9th of June the sp has consistently fallen whilst the price of Brent has gone in exactly the opposite direction, with RDS falling 10% and Oil up nearly 20%. Should RDS not have made a killing, for example, from trading oil it acquired when it was super-cheap?
In totality it unavoidably points to RDS being rather over valued pre-COVID. And whilst some recovery may well be on the cards, its days at £20+ are starting to look like history to me.
Chart of RDS (candles) v GKP (blue): https://invst.ly/rubnd

Yep - if RDS was in the same league performance-wise as Chevron it would be around £18 today - so it plainly isn't. Neither is BP.

Since August last year, RDSb has dropped about 50% whilst Brent is slightly less than 25% down and Chevron tracking it fairly closely at a touch more than 20% down.
It’s a challenging time but, by these straightforward comparisons, it’s evident that RDS's sp is performing very badly indeed. Is that purely due to market sentiment or is there something more fundamentally wrong with RDS in comparison to its super-major peer? Clearly there was a time to sell Shell but is now a good time to buy it back? The picture is not encouraging as it fails to revive whilst Brent recovers to $45.
Reference comparison between RDSb (candles), Brent (green), CVX (purple) from end August 2019:
https://invst.ly/ru9f-

I’ve seen the Simply Wall St stuff before and, as they say, it's based on pure number crunching rather than specific and detailed analysis, eg:

Are they [G] in a good financial position?
They have sufficient cash for at least 1 year of operations [ this Rated a ‘Pass’]

It also comes with generalised caveats and risk warnings which don’t seem to include specifics about G’s inventory of resources or KRG payments etc etc but, bottom line, based largely on estimated xash flows, they conclude G’s sp could be 306 on a fair value basis. Even if they are right, I doubt it’ll make it to that level by January, which is as far ahead as I was prepared to look. I’ll be very happy indeed to be proved wrong about that.

Ha! It was obviously my post putting a target of 180p + on it Leem!

Is OP likely to recover any faster from this level - around $45 - than it did from when the previous crash hit bottom at the end of 2015? I would say not. Here’s the five year historic picture:
https://invst.ly/rtx4e
And a closer view of this year:
https://invst.ly/rtxt5
According to the latter, $50 - $54 would be a rosy prediction for year end, assuming maintenance of the current trends with no significant volatility or flattening out. However, given those factors, $48 looks a more conservative possibility, potentially placing G at just 150p, based on its average performance v Brent to date,

Meanwhile, although the override payments are not due to resume until the year end at the earliest, it is to be hoped that there’ll be some clarity about the revised mechanism by that stage and, of course, Sarta should be in production by that point so there are reasonable prospects for the price to advance beyond 150 during the last four months of the year. If I’m correct about Sarta being worth about 6000 bbl/day net to G then that might represent an 18% sp boost, so a year end target of 180-200 looks realistically possible to me IF all the above assumptions are correct.

'I guess this phase may also take care of the 535 resistance.......'
https://invst.ly/rtva-
Well this morning seems to be dealing with that quite nicely. CWR recovery from the IP Sell-off and wider market drop in July is progressing pretty well and on track for the Berenberg target and the next resistance around 580 in early September at this rate.

It'll certainly be exceptional IF it actually happens but it probably won't trigger a BSD for the simple reason that the market won't expect it to last.
The standard pattern - over many years:
1) Iraq Central Gov. tries to reduce KRG's 'constitutional' share of planned annual budget.
2) For this and other reasons ICG struggles to get the annual budget through parliament - it arrives later every year
3) The final budget depends on KRG supplying a certain amount of oil to SOMO.
4) A cat and mouse game ensues - which side will be first to comply or first to renege?
5) One side and/or the other fails to comply with the budget terms (they always accuse each other).
6) The deal collapses with a lot of recrimination and the KRG never gets its allocated share.
7) The cycle repeats the following year.
I used to follow news of the budget progress, payments and even logged monthly oil reports made by MNR at one time - total waste of time. I pay no attention now - it'll just be a nice positive if it happens.

Yep - I pretty much agree with your comments Leem.
The only thing I would say about GKP is that they do have a difference with G regarding the type of oil they produce - lower priced and perhaps in less demand within the Mediterranean market. G also has the advantage of simplicity compared to 'big oil' - there are multiple reasons for the pressure on Shell - not least issues concerning their NAM JV with ExxonMobil. Ultimately, they all have their problems and I'm certainly not recommending any in particular right now. ATB

Well CWR seems to be sticking to the established trend and making a solid attempt to break through it:
https://invst.ly/rtbnd
As it lies only just beyond, I guess this phase may also take care of the 535 resistance that I mentioned previously.

Well it looks like the ‘end of day auction’ and UT robbed Leem at the wire. Sorry mate. In terms of market sentiment, G could be heading back into ‘bargain’ rather than “BSD’ territory - and Leem was reading that better than the rest of us. I was surprised to see it dropping below 137: https://invst.ly/rt5jp That’s not a good sign, so let’s hope OP perks up a bit next week as there’s not much hay-making time left before winter.

Overall a ‘nothing week’ for G, although, as I mentioned earlier, there’s a worrying tendency for the sp to creep downwards, flirting with the prospect of dropping out of the trend that has been pushing it upwards since early April whilst also losing ground v OP, where the ratio is 0.1 below average at 3.06x. https://invst.ly/rt5i3

RDS had a moment in the sun midweek but it didn’t last - the major has clearly upset the market deeply since ditching the sacred divi. Chevron remains the benchmark for me in terms of measuring how G is doing - so here’s that long-term comparison (along with Brent) since October: https://invst.ly/rt5hl

Well one thing's for sure, it'll either have to break up above the red trend here or down below the green in the next month or so given the 'wedge' that is otherwise squeezing the price towards 11.33: https://invst.ly/rt4rv

It'll be a pity if G drops off the green trend here:
https://invst.ly/rs-m1
It's already fallen below the nominal 140 support region and it's a slippery slope from here with precious little support until 118 ish. I guess I'd have to be getting back into overweight at that kind of level.

.....so, in that context, today's fall in Brent is, perhaps, even more of a disappointment than the plain numbers suggest:
https://invst.ly/rszr9

I think 65p out of AV was good going bunks - I'm pleased for you. I haven't bothered to trade AV for a couple of months so still have an historic tranche marooned at a net cost of 370 per share. I use trading now and again to pull down the net cost of targeted holdings and my focus for that recently has been on G, CWR and RDS (in that order). I find you can only fight two or three fires at a time - Ha! I'm generally doing OK since COVID struck but I did surrender my AV to its fate, only trading it near the bottom with some temporarily unused cash which I needed to park for a few days - did manage to knock 50p off the net cost per share though as they were 'on the books' for 420 before that. ATB

Since Brent hit $46 on the 5th August, OP has been in a wedge formed by the opposing rising green trends (limiting the lows) and falling red trends (limiting the highs).
https://invst.ly/rsywy
Over recent months, the rising trends have tended to win their periodic battles and over the last few days OP been squeezed as it approaches the latest ‘decider’ and the price is forced to either break above the current limiting red or below the current limiting green.

Yeah - we generally suck at Friday Club, bunks, although Leem seems in line here. I'm so p'd off because I planned a buy back at around 138 but was fooled by the brief rise this week and paid a couple of p over the odds - it's the price of ignoring my own charts. Ha!

Yes bunks - 'bottom line' you appear to be correct.
My Investing.com chart is effectively showing zero trades: ie too few to register - although I often find that it is wrong 'on the day' - so will check it again tomorrow.
Really odd that there were apparently no AT's until 10am - they are usually the majority (if you believe the feed on LSE). As Hasiba says the buy/sell data is unreliable, as I think we've discussed before, and the volumes for some types of trade may only reflect 50% (ie one half of the transaction is not reported). Anyhoo - it's doesn't look 'normal' today.

It looks as if only 'Ordinary Trades' are appearing - maybe a system glitch?