Member Info for Boyobach

Yes Hasiba - G is up over 9% so far this week - ie in less than 2.5 days - it's on a solid looking trajectory. Let's hope tomorrow doesn't throw a spanner in the works. As for RDS, that has so far been a disappointment for me although I think it's largely due to income investors deserting the stock because of the dividend cut. Since March 1st RDS is down around 30% compared to G which is slightly up over the period. So, in order to match G's performance, RDS would need to be £16.50 today. I'm confident it will achieve that eventually. But what about your old favourite CWR? That's done well for me overall and arguably back to entry level pricing (420 was good in that respect - it's approaching 470 now).

Well Leem, G very nearly touched 157 today, which puts Broadland and Hasiba more firmly in the frame amongst the FC entries than they were yesterday. Much will depend on Thursday’s price reaction to H1, of course. On which point we can see that G is inching up to the trend line it was testing before Bunks’ last BSD (centre of chart). That particular day was all the more remarkable for occurring during a market drop which affected the period 20th-31st July and, whilst the sp would probably have pulled back anyway, the market almost certainly hastened and deepened that drop. So, with the market recovering modestly this week, where might G have landed with a more ‘normal’ pull-back -ie the place where it could be heading if the market continues to recover over the next few days? Well, after today, 150-160 suddenly looks more possible but if the market does firm up and Friday’s statement is positive (without necessarily being a show stopper) then 165+ also becomes plausible. 15’ view: https://invst.ly/rod0y

Yes, Surprised - a good day. And, as you like to see indicators, my updated chart includes Bollinger Bands - not that they really add much to the trend lines IMO.
It illustrates how CWR has closed above the long-term trend (blue) that it fell through last week and well above the downward path that has dominated the last three weeks. So things are looking much rosier:
https://invst.ly/rnx9c

Excellent Mark888 - an even more interesting monicker than I thought - may the 888 truly bring you good luck!

Jeez - yet another COVID coma day. The market seems to be a mixed bag this morning but, despite some early downward pressure, G had been clinging on to 144 pretty well - Mark888man’s FC number (Market Man? I get it at last.) There have been mutterings of a ‘second crash’ but nothing very much to support it. I don’t often use Bolly Bands: like all indicators, there is an element of interpretation (smoke and mirrors if you prefer) and, to me, they often look much more convincing after the event. Anyway, here’s the FTSE100 from Feb for fun so you can judge for yourself:
https://invst.ly/rnrcj
In simple terms we don’t want to see events in the second blue circle turn out like the first. The trouble with Bolly is that we probably won’t know the depth of any fall (if indeed there is one) till it’s too late….

Well, on the way down last time, FTSE100 passed through 5877 on March 11th - similar to today - and CWR was around 350. So CWR is stronger now versus the market than it was at that point. So I’d be optimistic and say the bottom would likely be above 300, with 320 being a fair possibility as it is consistent with CWR’s long term trend. But you’d have to be braced for 230 as per last time.

Cheers Surprised - Best of luck with CWR and your other investments.

Wow! Hasiba signals we should be coming out of lockdown. I like it.

I hope there are enough of us left to play ( typical negativity from Boyo, I hear you say).

It’s an excellent week to start back with news of some description due to emerge on the 6th.

I guess I won’t get away with a sensible chart based entry like ‘between 140 and 152’. Fair enough as it’s my mouth rather than my money at risk.….. I’ll go for 148.

As you rightly point out, Surprised, I did not refer to any indicators. They weren’t really necessary to my argument (the clue was in the title) and I notice that you didn’t use them in order to suggest an alternative view or, earlier in the day, when you asserted that ‘CWR should power back up over coming sessions’. I happen to think that some justification for a point of view is better than none and pictures (ie charts) save an awful lot of words. For example: some might feel the difference between ‘power back up’ and ‘rocket back up’ is obvious, whilst others might think they are much the same. I generally find that a very simple chart is an effective method for conveying such nuances. Whatever tools we choose to use, let's hope CWR fulfills the more optimistic of our forecasts eh? ; -)

Well a big wooden spoon to the majors (RDS and Chevron) this week. The market seemed surprised by the RDS Q2 numbers although enough hints had been dropped.
https://invst.ly/rn1ow
G and GKP were level pegging at the top of the bunch with DNO trailing them slightly.
On a very long term view, G is doing well under all the challenging circumstances and ‘above par’ against Brent: https://invst.ly/rn1s7
Systic Peg was wrong this week unfortunately.

Have the last few days been irrational? A week ago CWR hit the 405p floor after two weeks in freefall and then, perhaps unsurprisingly, it has taken a further five days, amidst a general market decline, to break out from the trend that defined that fall.
But the break-out has hardly been decisive, so it’s been a disappointing end to the week. And, whilst the steep fall may well be over, there is no immediate sign of a bounce, which suggests that the sp may simply move sideways in the 420-480 range for while or even drift lower: https://invst.ly/rn1eu
The long term picture now looks like this:
https://invst.ly/rn13h with CWR uncomfortably closing lower than last Friday at about 10p below the long term (blue) trend that it must regain in order to make solid progress.

Well I guess they would wouldn't they? It's not like they were entirely unconnected with recent events in which they achieved a price of... er....585p. They could hardly come up with a much lower price.

Maybe that breakout from the two week red downward trend is finally happening. 15' view:
https://invst.ly/rmxml

Yesterday's more general market drop was an unwelcome setback on top of CWR's recent retrace triggered by IPG's disposal. It makes the need to escape from the red downward trend even more pressing. Closing above 450 today would be a modest start and also place CWR back on a long-term trend that is needs to recapture.
https://invst.ly/rmu2i

The issues affecting ARM’s China jv (which is 51% owned by Chinese investors) appears to be relatively parochial and internal to the Softbank owned organisation, which is in dispute with the local CEO who was sacked but refuses to go. Softbank's shares themselves don’t appear to be unduly affected by the dispute. So it seems rather contrived and an unnecessary distraction to link ARM’s problems to the fall in Ceres' sp, when there are other perfectly straightforward and rational reasons for the latter.

The UT price is the result of the closing auction and depends upon orders executed via that system - as I mentioned to bunks yesterday. Worth checking out SETSqx.

I agree Trendz. This may be market driven but CWR is certainly taking a disproportionate hit.
406 on the radar.

'Think of it as green v red....'
Well Red has the upper hand this morning, Green very much on the ropes and pushed downwards. It's a slippery slope below 440. https://invst.ly/rmce2

....the ole freaky UT @147.60p +2.64% - I'm not sure if I've copied this info from LSE on here before bunks, it's more up to date than the article I posted a week or two back:
The SETSqx trading service for securities outside the FTSE 350 Index.....
Stock Exchange Electronic Trading Service: Quotes and Crosses (SETSqx) is a trading service for securities less liquid than those traded on SETS. The auction uncrossings are scheduled to take place at 8am, 9am, 11am, 2pm and 4:35pm. There are 2 types of order book model for SETSqx depending on whether the security has registered market makers providing non-electronic quotes. An execution in the final auction will set the security’s closing price for the day and generate a closing price crossing session, which provides a further trading opportunity to execute business at the closing auction price.

Yes Trendz - although 500 is now below the vital blue long-term trend that I feel CWR needs to recapture in order to get back on its long-term track. In my view it should not be under 520 and, for me, it is a risky investment below that threshold. So in crude terms my targets are:
1) Finish this week above 470.
2) Capture 500 in around a week.
3) Be above 525 by mid August.
If it achieves those targets (or better) then I'll feel the disruption of the IPG sell-off is being overcome, I'll stay 'in' and my current 'overweight' level will become my new 'normal'. But, if not, then I'll probably take my profits from the recent 420 ish bottom and reduce my holding to its 'pre IPG sell-off' level - Hope that makes sense.