Member Info for Boyobach

Continuing the thread...
Nice finish today but not quite good enough. Think of it as green v red, where red hasn't been beaten in the last two weeks. CWR isn't going up until red gets broken but after that it should start to rally. Here's a 15' minute view: https://invst.ly/rm17p

At 156 septic peg could be bang on the money if you're a glass half full kinda guy....
https://invst.ly/rm12e

Half way through the week and Brent is up since last Friday’s market close but you wouldn’t know it from looking at the oil co’s: https://invst.ly/rlx30
Despite COVID gloom, for OP the wedge pattern is still upward: https://invst.ly/rlx60
After five straight days closing lower, might G finally reverse that trend today?
https://invst.ly/rlx8o

...as the old cliché goes. But probably useful right now. In simplistic terms here: blue = long term up, green = medium term up and red= short term down:
https://invst.ly/rlwtn
Trends are most interesting when they either get broken or when they confirm a limit.
Although CWR was limited by blue on Friday, after a brief but deep overshoot tested lower prices, it is still being suppressed by the red downward trend that has dominated for a couple of weeks. Breaking above red should indicate when the downward pressure has been largely overcome. A closer view here: https://invst.ly/rlwv-

On checking, I think that the reported sale of shares attributed to the ex-chairman in Stockmarket Wire (link below) actually refers to the IPGroup disposal. The number of shares involved is identical and Mr Aubrey is also CEO of IPGroup.
( https://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/7014250/Director-Deals-Ceres-Power-Holdings-PLC-CWR.html )

I've seen nothing more recent than 12th June from Liberum Trendz.
BTW were you aware of the departing Chairman's sale of shares on the 16th? Not unusual at all but the timing wouldn't have assisted the sp to stabilise particularly quickly after IPG on the 13th : Alan Aubrey, Chairman, sold 9,156,339 shares in the company on the 16th July 2020 (from StockMarket Wire 22nd July).

Yes bunks - I've been relatively lucky. Swapped the proceeds from G near top into CWR when that hit the bottom and have made 10% there since - which I haven't yet sold, so I had to add fresh cash when G fell back to my first target near 146. It's now a two horse race as I'm overweight CWR (although I might normalise upon that level ) and still underweight G. I'll re-balance (or not) depending on how they both go from here.

I think the people selling now are more likely to be those that acquired some/all of their holding recently at circa 420 - I would fall into that category, having traded around my core holding as CWR was rising and actually sold out entirely when it hit the top. Like many, I re-acquired when it fell back to the mid 500's but it fell even further - so the logical thing to do was to go 'overweight' when it dropped below 425 (the previous institutional placing by IPG). A 40p+ gain when you are 'overweight' is a pretty compelling reason to sell and one reason that the sp might be relatively slow to recover. In my own case, I'm contemplating an increase to my holding for the long term - so I've decided not to take a profit for the time being. Trading is an essential way to manage even the longest term investments in my view.

Assuming that Ceres continues to recover, rather than ‘moving sideways’ for a while, then one likely trajectory would be similar to its previous upward trend, indicated by the green dashed path here. Alternatively, the red dashed lines indicate the potential path If it rises as fast as it fell. However, caution and profit taking, following the recent low, could quite possibly cool things down to a more temperate pace than either. In any event, 520-560 seems an achievable and moderate target range over the next month and I don't think we should be too dismayed if the sp doesn't revisit 600 for a while.
https://invst.ly/rlcs5

Hydrogen: the sp has only fallen by a little over 20% over the last 12 months, whilst monthly revenue is around a third of what it was and four months have been deferred. That's better performance than many of its peers. Now, it might be fair to argue that the sp was too low to begin with, of course.

Jim - I think payments are in line with the company's statement a few months ago, whereby November to February production inclusive have been deferred. My recollection is that this is the position (apologies for the table format):

Production…..Paym't Due....Month Paid…Status
Aug 19……......Nov 19……….Jan 20……….Paid
Sep 19……......Dec 19……….Jan 20……….Paid
Oct 19………...Jan 20………..Mar 20……….Paid
Nov 19…….…..Feb 20………………………..Deferred
Dec 19…….......Mar 20………………………..Deferred
Jan 20…………………………………………..Deferred
Feb 20………………………..………………...Deferred
Mar 20……...............................Apr 20………...Paid
Apr 20……...............................May 20………..Paid
May 20……..............................Jun 20…….......Paid
Jun 20……..............................Jly 20.…………Paid

Well bunks, the long term chart suggests the sp could easily go lower and, as I said on Friday, I do think the sp is rather toppy v OP with 137 and 132 being potential buy-back targets for me: https://invst.ly/rk-c0
Earlier today, I bought back some that I'd sold near the top last Tuesday. I'll only add more if I can make a similar margin on the others I sold at lower prices (around 150) prior to BSD .

Pretty much by the playbook:
https://invst.ly/rkurc
I did buy a few back this morning, effectively realising a profit from last week, but still moderately underweight.

The first hour - especially on Mondays - when all the orders set up overnight or at the weekend are executed, can be a bit crazy.

Tuesday was a bit of an anomaly then? Pity - a bizarre profit grabbing opportunity although spikes are difficult to trade - they can presage a continuing rise and the FOMO factor kicks in for many investors. In the worst case you can sell half way up the rise only to face profit dilution (or worse) if the retrace isn’t deep enough. So, Tuesday was really only good if you were able to realise a profit without dilution on buy-back.

Today’s action leaves G below 152 support but just perched on two trends at 150,
https://invst.ly/rk3z3
giving a max sell/buy-back profit of about 20p from Tuesday if you were very lucky. The sp is still rather toppy v OP in my estimation (I daren’t mention my current target for G buy-back at the risk of being accused of blatant de-ramping). Suffice it to say, today’s G:Brent ratio is about 3.5x, the eighteen month average is 3.15x and the 5 day MA is about 3.6x. But perhaps it’s toppy for good reasons that I’m oblivious to and which some were prepared to shell out 170p or more for.

Whatever the case, G was overtaken by both GKP and Chevron in the weekly parade: https://invst.ly/rk3yg

But it remains ahead of Chevon (and well ahead of the others btw) in my somewhat arbitrary comparison from Early October: https://invst.ly/rk3xy

Textbook end to the week - nice:
https://invst.ly/rk3jn
Back on track Monday hopefully.

Might have been the 14.00 auction?
Stock Exchange Electronic Trading Service: Quotes and Crosses (SETSqx) is a trading service for securities less liquid than those traded on SETS. The auction uncrossings are scheduled to take place at 8am, 9am, 11am, 2pm and 4:35pm.

forgot to add that 445 would put CWR back on a significant trend line - obviously that is what is happening as I type.

CWR below 425 (bearing in mind that's what institutions paid IPG in May) is a no brainer.
It's been a darned nuisance - I'd planned to reinvest my profits from BSD in G but CWR won the race to bargain level.
There's a gap to fill at 461 over at CWR - might get filled today - and I might've sold at that level for a quick 40p profit but I'm frankly thinking of sticking for the long term. Meanwhile I'm now very underweight G and it might be the thin end of an inevitable wedge - meaning I'll never top back up but just sit on my rump (in both senses of the word).

Getting back on trend now (442+ required), which would make 550-590 a realistic target range for September (sooner if enthusiasm returns sharply). If CWR was worth 650+ a couple of weeks ago (I'm not saying it was) then the change of share ownership doesn't alter that - although liquidity will presumably be different now. GLA