Member Info for Boyobach

Well a full week on from last Friday’s wrap and G has continued to make progress:
https://invst.ly/rc1-b
If you glance back to last week’s you’ll see that G has made steady strides against OP, the FTSE100 and the other featured oil co’s over the past fortnight. It’s pretty impressive - and I don’t pretend that I can explain it.
It does mean that G’s performance since Mar 1st has come close to matching that of the leader, Chevron, and far outpacing oil major RDS. Fellow KRI producer DNO has done almost as well over the period although GKP has suffered severely - a grim 40% down compared to G’s -7%. Chevron is due to report for Q2 in three weeks and it remains to be seen if write downs and other negative news will follow a similar pattern to RDS.
https://invst.ly/rc2l2

Yesterday I pointed out that G had previously encountered little resistance when moving up through 137 but had found some support when falling back. This morning G may have found that support again and, with Brent on the brink of potentially securing $43, there seems a fair chance that G will maintain its present level and maybe even build upon it. Having taken some profits earlier in the week, I’m currently ‘equal weight’ as far as my personal holding is concerned - so neither in buy or sell mode at the current sp.
The G:OP ratio is 3.19 (as of mid-day) - slightly above its 18 month average of 3.15, so the sp could be described as ‘normal’, although prevailing circumstances are far from that.
If G continues upwards then the next significant step could be in the 146-152 range, where both have previously offered resistance. https://invst.ly/rbziv
Together they represent a nominal ‘150’ barrier. I personally don’t imagine that G could get beyond this unless Brent is firmly over $45 and/or there is some significantly positive company-specific news. On which point we should bear in mind the prospect of the H1 statement which I assume will happen in about a month’s time.

There was a small (810 share) trade at 138 after the UT apparently. It smells doesn't it when the UT does not seem to bear a close relationship to the intraday prices ( which don't appear to have quite touched 137) ? We'll just have to wait till morning to see if it properly points to G securing the 137 level or if the sp now falls back. Brent continues to rise this evening so I guess there's a fair chance that G will continue upward tomorrow https://invst.ly/rbppw .

On the other topic - I'm sure Tartine is way too smart to make a massive punt that runs the risk of a damaging loss.
There are no perfect ways to invest - it's a risky business and the best we can do is try to calculate and mitigate the risks and hopefully maximise our returns. I've made too many mistakes to mention and G has provided me with plenty of learning opportunities. I may get the hang of it one day.

I wish you the best of luck Tartine.
I've usually been quite conservative about trading , varying my average core holding in G by up to +25% (my overweight level) and down to - 25% (my underweight level). The tranches would usually be around 10% of the total. However during the worst part of the recent collapse I was rather more aggressive. As long as each trade makes a profit I'm happy. My days of 'averaging down' with G are gone - so I don't chase the price downwards. Each individual 'buy' (or sell) has to stand on its own feet as far as I'm concerned and if I make my target gain but miss out because the price continues upwards (or downwards) then I have no regrets. ATB.

It'll be interesting to see if 137 marks the top of G's current rally. Although it features on the chart as a level of interest it has only really functioned as a support and never as a resistance - with the sp previously rising through it pretty much unimpeded. https://invst.ly/rbje8

My divi was in my account promptly on Monday morning - I'm with II.

It's been a good day - I have to confess to selling a few: after all, it's only the regular 10% trading profits that keep me solvent with G.
G may seem toppy - and I did imply as much with Leem earlier - but by my own yardstick of the G:OP long term average ratio (3.15x) it was only 2p over par at the 134p close.
Three days into the week, since last Friday's close, and G is leading the field: https://invst.ly/rb89k

Genel has certainly done better than RDS since mid May, Leem - here's the comparison against Brent since Mar 1st with all the others filtered out: https://invst.ly/rb3io
RDS has disappointed the market, especially in terms of its understandable inability to maintain its legendary dividend and now, unsurprisingly, its massive write downs. Despite all of that, and rather like yourself, I can't reconcile G's relative performance given the KRG background.

Just following on from yesterday: It was interesting to note that RDS used an average Brent price of $35/bbl for 2020 in their gloomy second quarter update yesterday. By my reckoning the average to date has been $42 - roughly today's price. So for the first time in about three months the ytd average price of Brent has stopped falling and, if today's price is maintained, the average for the year will be around $42. Put another way, Brent would have to average $28 for the rest of the year in order for the whole year average to drop to $35. This seems very unlikely indeed to me.
$42 also ties-in with today's ICE futures prices. That would be 20% up on Shell's rather conservative assumption. Meanwhile OP is sticking to the path I suggested yesterday: https://invst.ly/rb2c-

Re-posted due to full stop messing up the link:
OP may be turning a corner - but not in an entirely good way for G: https://invst.ly/raas4 .
I used the analogy of a bus clipping the curb last time, in early 2019. Looking fairly similar in shape: https://invst.ly/raavr - but around $20 lower at this stage!

OP may be turning a corner - but not in an entirely good way for G: https://invst.ly/raas4.
I used the analogy of a bus clipping the curb last time, in early 2019. Looking fairly similar in shape: https://invst.ly/raavr - but around $20 lower at this stage!

It may be an extremely boring point but the G:OP ratio continues to be a reliable guide in terms of G’s sp performance. Over the last 18 months it has averaged 3.15 and rarely deviated by more than +/- 10% from that value, with those limits representing a fair indication of whether the price was becoming toppy or under-valued. During March and April, the most volatile period for G within that timescale, it did range from 2.34 to 5.74 within a month - alternately indicating heavily under and over-sold.

Today the ratio is just about spot-on that average giving an expected sp of 129 for Brent at $41. We have often anticipated a significant revaluation for G and the ratio has indicated the potential for such as it has risen to 3.5x but, in reality, such a revaluation has yet to materialise.

Unless OP progresses to $45and beyond it is hard to imagine G exceeding recent highs, with the obvious conclusion that it will trade in the 120-150 range until circumstances change significantly. https://invst.ly/ra7gn

Yes bunks, it did. Would have been nice if the momentum of BSD had kept rolling - but who knows? Cracking 130p at $40 Brent is a big ask.

So here are the usual comparisons over the five days since last Friday's close:
https://invst.ly/r9fov
G doing OK, compared to sector peers, despite the irritating effect of UT's on some closing prices .

* its top limits more in line with blue.

The medium term trend for G has been modestly good since early April (orange here): https://invst.ly/r9cix
That ‘recovery’ trend, which gives a near-term rising price range of 122-140 with potential near term peaks of 152+, has a very similar slope to the peaks of Brent (green trace) over the period.
All well and good except that the longer term (blue) trends will ultimately take over (unless, maybe, Bina Bawi hits the headlines). There are signs of that already, with Brent not quite hitting that upper orange line and perhaps already flattening off, it’s top limits more in line with blue.

Yep. Intraday price moves/trends often more informative with G.

Result, unfortunate inconsistency or manipulation?
https://invst.ly/r8t3a
The UT based closing price for G often seems to be anomalous and out of kilter with the afternoon's trend and not to be trusted as an indicator.
Anyway - Brent now walking sideways so the fun is probably over for a while: https://invst.ly/r8t9t

So much for Big Surge Day - let's just hope G stays above at least 125 . A close at 127 or above would be 'a result' under the circumstances. https://invst.ly/r8isu

Yes - G just managed to stay on trend today but did so in fairly spectacular fashion. So will it drop back, use 130 as a launchpad for 137 or even make a more direct move on 147 (like last time)? :
https://invst.ly/r82r6