Member Info for Boyobach

Despite this week's setbacks, G remains on a discernible upward trend providing it drops no further:
https://invst.ly/r3uup

Well there’d been a lot of talk about a general market pull-back after the recent rally from March lows and it continued steeper today. If you add in the fact that G had done exceptionally well last week - and was starting to look toppy v OP - this week's sharp pull-back was on the cards.

Not necessarily a disaster, unless you happen to be in need of the cash immediately, but it offers a buy-back opportunity if you took profits last Friday. So, unless you have already done so, immediate interest turns to the potential ‘bottom’ of this phase, where 118 and 112 now appear as immediate possibilities:
https://invst.ly/r3khj

As we can see in the 15’ chart from Friday’s close, https://invst.ly/r3ki7 ,G and GKP are both disproportionately down compared to Brent, the majors and DNO. That may even-out over the next couple days and thus soften any further fall by G

Whilst I might commit ‘profits previously taken’ to G at this stage, I do not intend using ‘new cash’ in order to add until I have a better idea of where the ‘new bottom’ will establish - so I’m personally unlikely to be buying above 112.

Yes bunks, In a New York minute everything can change - for which a clip rather than a chart:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6oNkSJF3A0
As I responded to Hydrogen's post, at the weekend , when he suggested the sp was irrelevant:
'The question now becomes one of protection of capital value gained or regained....G has certainly started to look toppy.....definitely at a tricky phase.' I also suggested 125 as a potential drop back level.
The good news is that it is a market drop rather than G specific - so no one here should be worse off than they were in March and we know that 145 will be regained fairly soon. Looks like I could be back into 'buying mode' with G.

Looking at G over the last week we can see that the sp has shifted up by about 8p relative to Brent - specifically from the 5th June: https://invst.ly/r2v7w as OP lifted to $40 and the gap to 137 got filled. The G:OP ratio is now almost 3.5x, about the highest level it manages to maintain over a reasonable period. So 135-147 could be the new trading range for G until OP progresses above $43, when G should advance towards the 152 resistance and, hopefully, beyond.

The drop back was to be expected - but let’s hope G finds support at 137 or higher.
Since Friday’s close (x15 minute): https://invst.ly/r2lgh
Daily Chart with 50 (yellow), 200 (teal) moving averages: https://invst.ly/r2lg5
EIA weekly report tomorrow the API is a just a warm-up act IMO:
How Accurate Are EIA And API Inventory Reports?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/How-Accurate-Are-EIA-And-API-Inventory-Reports.html

Here's an article I found interesting based on how long moving averages (50&200) can be used to assess the market recovery - in this case the S&P, It concludes that:
' Overall, it seems that for now, there have been many stocks that have benefited from the stock market rally. However, it appears at least based on the one indicator, the number of stocks above their 50-day moving average, there may be a breather that is coming. Meanwhile, the stocks above their 200-day moving average have a lot of work that still needs to be done before we are likely to see a longer-term sustainable rally in the equity markets.'
I thought I'd check how G is doing by that metric (200 in green, 50 in yellow):
https://invst.ly/r1ri8
Full article: https://uk.investing.com/analysis/are-stocks-topping-out-this-momentum-indicator-says-maybe-200442531

An excellent day ending an excellent week for G and many others (pretty much most of the market). Here is my usual ‘bunch of five’ v Brent and FTSE since March 1st:
https://invst.ly/r16k8 Note that G has finally caught up with the FTSE100 over the period - the first of the UK companies on this chart to do so.

And here they are for the week: https://invst.ly/r16ls

Enjoy the weekend - time to start planning for the next phase (for whichever direction the market takes).

Agree with Hydrogen's comments , BTW, although I do tend to think that G is getting ahead of itself and Brent

Back at the beginning of March, when Brent was around $51, G was trading at between 147 and 152 (152 appears to be the next significant resistance). As we can see here, G is now running rather ahead of OP: https://invst.ly/r12ia

My thought would be whether G is actually stronger now than it was on March 1st?
Obviously optimism/sentiment seems stronger but as far as revenue and Free Cash Flow is concerned……

On a good day in 2019, before payment issues and COVID, G could reach 200p with Brent at $60. My point being that progress from here - and certainly above 152 - will increasingly be reliant on OP and positive company-specifc developments.

just to clarify - it's not a 'buy' or 'sell' opportunity for me.
Had I recently bought a 'trading tranche' it would be a different matter.

The dilemma for traders in G today is whether, having filled the gap, it has the strength to consolidate the position above 137 or whether it will drop back. https://invst.ly/r115c
My hunch is to stay on board - but easy for me to say as I'm exactly at my planned 'core holding' in G so there's effectively no profit for me to take at this point in the cycle (ie it's not a 'buy' or 'sell' opportunity). The gap was created on 9th March across numerous companies - GKP and RDS, for example, have yet to reach the bottom edge of theirs.

Well that's the gap filled for G. A bit premature with respect to OP maybe? Time will tell.

Good to see G close at nearly 129 but disappointing to see that it appears to have been the UT after 16.30 that reversed the afternoon’s trend and added a significant 5p (the previous 15 min candle closed at only 124.6p). Last night’s last trade, also marked here, was rather similar: https://invst.ly/r0qd0
So it’s frankly a bit of an anomaly as far as I’m concerned and makes the daily chart look a bit more encouraging than perhaps it should:
https://invst.ly/r0qoa

As Hasiba has pointed out, GKP has been storming today and is about half way to catching up with the rest - almost like it has been hibernating since mid March. Is it because they’ve started invoicing again as per the RNS a couple of days ago? Here are the all the usual prices since March 1st:
https://invst.ly/r0qtr

Whilst GKP might be dazzling, G is also having a good day , even if it is less spectacular:
https://invst.ly/r0n7s (15 minute ticks)
Having touched 130 at one point, G is certainly not following the path I anticipated yesterday (red-dash) and has continued to climb within the blue trend. Excellent progress given the flattening OP. If it closes above 127 then that could prove to be a significant milestone in the upward path: https://invst.ly/r0nb8 (daily ticks)

If I filter out all the others and leave GKP and G since March 2nd (both G and GKP happened to open at about 148p that day) then GKP's potential for catch-up is even more stark: https://invst.ly/r0l0d

Brent has had a good run since the end of April low point but did yesterday mark the top for a while or will it keep going?
https://invst.ly/r0k9k

A quick review of where all the usual Oil Co's (plus PMO) are in relation to Oil peaking in October 2018:
https://invst.ly/r0jx4
By that measure, the GKP 'bullet train' could well keep going for a while yet as there's some ground to make up.
Here's the picture since beginning of March, just before Brent plunged below $50 https://invst.ly/r0k28

O/T Bunks re Aviva:
Yes AV was not much joy during April May and I took a profit on 27th May when it first went over 265 (from238 on 3/4) 'cos I wanted some money to put back into G. I still have a residual LT holding which now has a net cost of 380. I'm in no rush - which is just as well!! It's at a resistance now by my reckoning but the trajectory looks good for capturing it and then moving onwards. I obviously took my 'quick' profit under less favourable circs than you currently have - so I can hardly quibble with your itch to sell.

The Energy Information Administration has apparently reported a crude inventory decline of 2.1 million bbl for the week to May 29. It seems Gasoline is up, though, by 2.8million bbl:

Oil Falls Back On Large Fuel Build:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Falls-Back-On-Large-Fuel-Build.html

We all need cannabis, Hasiba.

Crude oil prices rose overnight after the API weekly report showed a draw of 4830,000 bbls whilst analysts were apparently a build of 3.038 million barrels (according to this article: https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/oil-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-prices-dip-ahead-of-eia-weekly-inventories-report-653093 ).

However the main act to watch out for is the EIA report, due out about an hour before the UK markets close today. Also expect the inevitable volatility in OP caused by the usual suspects: OPEC+ (especially Russia), POTUS, COVID etc etc.

Having just sold a tranche - and down to my new ‘optimum’ holding in G, I’m in potential ‘buy’ mode - but not at any price - and will start to get interested at sub 120 - preferably 116-118, or even lower if the cycle looks like returning to the orange trend line along the queried (speculative) trend here: https://invst.ly/r04ia

127 was good enough for me to take a near 11% profit from Monday's buy.
If the price falls back then I may top back up but I'll be equally happy if the rally continues.
Here's the 15' view: https://invst.ly/r01fw