Member Info for Boyobach

They'd be silly not to as it must be a factor weighing on the sp.
However, once KRG has done three months consistently I could imagine them putting out an RNS to the effect that they don't intend reporting routine payments that fall in line with guidance.

Also worth noting that the discount of WTI to Brent has fallen from near $10 a month ago to about $3 today.

Fair comment Leem - but check out the FTSE100 in the last chart ( https://invst.ly/quc9q ) . Oil and Oil Cos fell well below the market at the low point so need to rally more to catch up. To be fair, G has performed extremely well -it fell well below RDS but has overtaken it on the way back up. The real test will come at 130p - what OP will be required in order to shift G across the gap at 137 and back up to 150+ ?

An 'averagely good' day so far, with 118 the nominal top for this month (yes, it does go a bit higher to 120 at times): https://invst.ly/quce9 (15minute chart)
In early April G was nearer to 130p with Brent above $30: https://invst.ly/quc9q

My instinct has been wrong up to now, Hydrogen. Although it seems obvious that the Futures and the Forex 'spot' must re-converge at some point, I had thought that re-convergence would have occurred by now. However, I'm naive enough to believe that WTI could not have climbed to nearly $30 if last month's disaster was about to reoccur. So maybe what happens is this: WTI undergoes a 'normal' (non traumatic) expiry adjustment as the contract rolls over and the XBR 'spot' price then snaps back into alignment fairly sharply because the market's price mechanisms will ostensibly have stabilised. That would also be the best outcome for us
I think a near term jump back to $40+ (Brent) could be optimistic because of the massive inventory excess which will take months to burn through . It'll be interesting to see how 'driving season' demand in the US proceeds if lockdown is lifted: I guess it could either be suppressed by continuing COVID fears and weak household finances or enhanced by people's urge to make up for their weeks in lockdown. This is usually the season for OP to be strong - so the best time to see a bounce back..

With just a couple of trading days to the WTI contract expiry next week - the event that caused mayhem for WTI last month - it is intriguing to note that the ‘over the counter’ Forex Spot WTI/USD rate (blue at $10) still appears to be well out of sync with the front month (red at near $30) here:
https://invst.ly/qtskd
This appears to be a very abnormal state of affairs as the two prices ordinarily track each other closely (as this five year picture demonstrates: https://invst.ly/qtt-r ) It implies that physical WTI can currently be acquired for just $10/bbl - about a third of the futures price.
Quite what will happen to the two prices as the expiring CME futures contracts transform into physical oil will be interesting to see.

.....the full week for the usual bunch : https://invst.ly/qtksw

A mixed bag week, although generally heading downward to 109 except for a swift quick profit opportunity today following yesterday's low if you were inclined and awake in the first hour(15 min chart). G seems quite solid, however, in the 109-118 trading range despite the mentioned blip down to 106
https://invst.ly/qtky8
Here's the full week for the usual bunch (again a 15 min chart) - noting that RDS went ex-div yesterday, GKP struggling for some reason. Note that G doing OK compared to peers but, nevertheless, weakening against OP as the latter strengthens:
ttps://invst.ly/qtksw

As per the T&O Update RNS yesterday:
Qara Dagh (40% working interest and operator)
The QD-2 well was on track to spud in Q2 2020 prior to COVID-19 impacting supply chains and the movement of people in to the KRI
Due to ongoing uncertainty caused by COVID-19, Genel notified the KRG of the occurrence of a force majeure event preventing the Company from being able to perform its contractual obligations as scheduled
Work continues to take place to ensure that Genel is in the best possible position to start to drill the QD-2 well once external conditions improve and the force majeure event ceases

Sensing that G wasn't likely to go much lower leading up to ex-div, I added yesterday at 107.
123 looks like a possibility if payment lands on schedule and OP continues to firm up:
https://invst.ly/qte8z

It's nominally mid month rather than end of month - not much point stressing and splitting hairs IMO.
The sp is a reasonable 'confidence gauge' and that's certainly been firm the last couple of weeks.

An interesting feature of G's sp recently has been the strength of support at certain levels - like currently around 109 - compared to others like major RDS and peer GKP. I'm beginning to think that this may be due to the relatively small number of PI's compared to the circle of key holders. I t does seem to have a firmer floor at the moment. I think it's nominally a £1 ex-div share and will build -albeit slowly - as OP improves. G is not going to be making much profit at $30 and although it should get paid something each month, the backlog of payments from KRG aren't going to materialise for a while. Hopefully we'll see $35 Brent in the next few months but it's not a certainty. I'm not sorry to see projects delayed - there's no point pumping out reserves for peanuts. That's what the Shale industry has done and look at the result there.

May 13 (Reuters) - U.S. crude stocks surprisingly fell in the most recent week, along with gasoline stocks, while distillate inventories rose, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

Crude inventories fell by 745,000 barrels in the week to May 8 to 531.5 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 4.1 million-barrel rise.

Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 3 million barrels in the last week, EIA said. https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL1N2CV18E

EIA Raises Oil Price Forecasts (short term outlook)

But don’t get too excited - I reckon it would reach $34+ for the whole year at just $31 average from today:

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its oil price forecasts for 2020 and 2021, its latest short-term energy outlook (STEO) has revealed.
Brent spot prices are now expected to average $34.13 this year and $47.81 in 2020 [misprint should be 2021?]. The EIA’s April STEO had these figures at $33.04 in 2020 and $45.62 in 2021. WTI spot prices are expected to average $30.10 this year and $43.31 next year, according to the EIA’s latest STEO. The organization’s previous STEO forecasted WTI averages of $29.34 in 2020 and $41.12 in 2021.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_raises_oil_price_forecasts-13-may-2020-162073-article/

Weekly report to follow….

For those minded to buy (I wasn't) the drop to around 108 offered one opportunity.
The 109 support looks pretty firm - with 99 maybe destined to be the ex-div low?
https://invst.ly/qsc9k (15 min chart)
It will be interesting as the story unfolds approaching, in order of events, the WTI expiry , G's AGM and ex-div.
The G:OP very gradually dropping back towards 'normality' - now around 3.8x: a trend I'd expect to continue if OP recovers.

Things obviously deteriorated when the market opened just 20 minutes after that last post!
https://invst.ly/qsa9v

Just a week to go now until the next WTI contract expiry:
https://invst.ly/qs9b1
Of the usual bunch, GKP has been rather volatile and is currently down around 8% since Thursday’s close, whilst G is 1.5% down :
https://invst.ly/qs51-

I assume that 'participants' were the brokers and institutions rather than guys like Syed Shah (the home trader in the article0, who only had his screen to go on, and Chinese retail investors etc.

Yes Ocelot - the brokers had no choice because, legally, their screens were displaying incorrect /misleading data. If they had fully understood the risks posed by the instrument they were offering unsuspecting investors then they would not have needed any warning.
I believe investors in China are experiencing similar problems: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-bank-tries-to-calm-storm-over-investors-oil-losses-11588764576

Non-subscription link to Ocelot's article:
https://news.yahoo.com/iraq-prime-minister-may-succeed-035928182.html

IMV, genuine reform cannot happen where religion defines ruling parties and power groups. This is particularly the case in the ME where secular democracy is incompatible with the culture and is inevitably doomed to fail. After all, it barely functions in Northern Ireland with external support so what hope in a region where modern day disputes and wars have their origins in a conveniently uncertain history that goes back well over a millennium?

As the article says: ‘The political elite will want to delay these changes at least long enough to wring the last drops of privilege from the current system’. Although, in this case, I would cynically say ‘...delay the changes until they have adapted their game-plan to match the new circumstances’