Member Info for Boyobach

G was looking ok till the last 15 minutes, bunks!
Better luck tomorrow.
https://invst.ly/qmxfi
I still can't figure out what's going to happen to WTI between now and its next expiry:
https://invst.ly/qmxli
With USO pulling out of the June contract I'd expected the price to crater but it's almost back to the level before last week's debacle.

It may seem like today did not go brilliantly after the sp fell back but if you look at G's performance since it hit 55p compared to all the others... https://invst.ly/qmx41

117 is where it's at for me:
https://invst.ly/qmvem
G still on course to move up a level I think.
OP moving in the right direction too - Brent looks set to possibly roll-over LCO to July at around $26 (June and July about $0.4 either side of that number)....

Having more than a nibble today, possibly.
15minute chart: https://invst.ly/qmpfa

Today is the last day of the Brent LCO June contract and the price has steadily risen towards that of the July contract in the region of $24-$25 during the last few hours. Meanwhile WTI (June) is approaching $17, although the Spot price apparently remains just over $8 - a gap that will be forced to close over the next couple of weeks.

A positive day in the market - pretty much everything up, including G, with something of a boost from the EIA too despite the crude build. Chevron certainly seemed to feel the benefit:
https://invst.ly/qmcdz

To the downside though, WTI Spot doesn’t appear to be moving up from $8, yet the June Futures is trying to make headway at around $16. Something there is going to have to give in the next three weeks: https://invst.ly/qmcd2

That earlier G ‘trading’ chart (under Price Action') was a 15minute one, Jack - so you can probably ignore the gap you spotted.

Gasoline Inventories See Surprise Draw As Crude Stocks Soar
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Gasoline-Inventories-See-Surprise-Draw-As-Crude-Stocks-Soar.html

G tested the 117 barrier harder today than last week but may have reached the max (119.6) for now - unless the US market and EIA report provide a boost this afternoon:
https://invst.ly/qm6ua

Ha! Crossed wires Jack - you said DOW futures were up so I thought you meant the Futures index.
I don't follow the DOW - in fact the various indices are only of background interest to me, partly because they capture the way the herd moves rather than the leaders. They kinda tell you what you already sense. And that is probably why, of course, they can lag behind reality. The US has seen much more of a bull market over the last ten years and the recent crisis seems to have knocked them back less than 3 years, the FTSE is back roughly 4.
https://invst.ly/qm5bs

I don’t think G will be re-testing the bottom - ie 55p. G seems to be valued on recovery rather than current status and, following some strong buying, 100p may well be as low as it will go from here - the support at 98p held didn’t it?

I suspect that WTI Spot may have hit the bottom and, although Futures have a lot of sorting out to do, I think Brent may well have seen the worst of it - although a dip to $17/$18 isn’t inconceivable. My current obsession is with WTI Spot v June as they approach the next expiry: https://invst.ly/qm5gs

Cheers

Everything on my watchlist is up except for WTI Spot - and that really needs to lift at some point for the Futures to climb properly.

Sorry Jack - didn't realise you were talking about DOW Futures 30 as I never look at it.
I guess there's some correlation but much more so with the FTSE Oil& Gas - which I would expect as G is part of that family:
https://invst.ly/qlza-
In terms of chicken and egg then Indices do track the market and , as you point out, G was certainly floating with all the other boats today.
But as to what was driving that general positivity about Oil Co's I remain slightly mystified - the news around oil didn't seem to warrant it. ATB

G reached it's first high before the DOW was awake, Jack, but your point remains valid - markets (FTSE & DOW) were generally 'up' and the indices are a measure of that. However, any positivity regarding oil and related industries at the moment seems to be misplaced as far as I'm concerned - hence my question about where the enthusiasm was coming from. Much as I welcome the way G has held it together by comparison with the majors (RDS and Chevron) I'm not sure it is justified in the current climate. It doesn't have the benefit of size and diversity of interests and revenue streams. The big guys should, for example, be able to turn OP volatility to good use - especially with their access to trade, storage and shipping - but G has none of these advantages and also has its well rehearsed geopolitical risks. I'm also unconvinced by WTI today - near term futures seem way overpriced given the extreme contango curve. I also suspect that oil may never recover to pre-COVID-19 levels of demand and that the path to even an 80% level of recovery will be slow and tough. In my view, G's resilience will certainly be tested, so any upticks in sp much above 100 - and certainly above 120 - strike me as froth, and I'll happily grab a profit from them if they seem to be unsupported by some underlying rationale. ATB

Here are the usual runners and riders since last Friday’s close, using Brent Spot instead of LCO for better consistency (as investing.com switched the front month prematurely). https://invst.ly/qltz0

G took a walk to the top of the hill today but ended up almost back at the start. Quite where the enthusiasm came from is anybody’s guess as Oil is clearly stuffed for a good while yet: https://invst.ly/qltzn

Meanwhile, my obsession with WTI June v WTI spot continues, with the latter stubbornly fixed around $8 and the former, which did recover from near $10 earlier, clearly struggling with the path it may consequently have to take in order to converge with its sibling over the next three weeks:
https://invst.ly/qltuu
Unless there’s a lift in Spot it’s hard to see a happy outcome.

Isn't the rise in July WTI at least partly due to people transferring out of June and into July contracts? I sense it is about postponing the problem for as long as possible. I note that USO hasn't simply ditched June and gone over to July but spread the risk to later months. In the end, July is just next month's front month and the squeeze will eventually come to bear upon it.
OPEC+ cuts are to some extent already coming into effect but the supply overhang will surely last for some months.
I guess much will depend on how eager traders will be to sell the cheap oil they now own and have parked in storage. I'm also not clear about all the oil moored off the US coast - there may be lots of it but at what price would it come ashore? In a smart world producers would stop production and also limit sales of stockpiled product until the price recovers but the market is not that simple or cohesive. For me, the differential between the next WTI contract expiry and WTI Spot seems as good an indicator as any of the price dynamic. As the reality of each Futures expiry date and ownership of physical product approaches we see the price weaken as people panic to get out of the obligation to take delivery. There's understandable concern at the moment about what will happen to WTI for June on the 19th May but, after that, the focus will simply shift to July's contract expiry on 22nd June etc etc until demand gets re-established.

Thanks for explaining about the true level of petrochemical shortages in the USA Love_You, I had no idea.

In the meantime, the market seems convinced there’s an oversupply to the extent that spot WTI is below $8 and the United States Oil Fund’s administration, USCF, announced yesterday that it intends to sell off all of its WTI contracts for June delivery over coming days. This is a big deal and, I think, guarantees that WTI (June) will converge with the spot price at around $8 or less. Latest view of that convergence: https://invst.ly/qlmog

Pearl is the gas man, JL.
By which I mean that Pearl are the KRG's gas people and that the Bina Bawi / Miran can will probably continue to be kicked down the road.
As I recall, the KRI could probably benefit directly from gas because I believe they may still import much diesel for electricity generation.

Yes Jack - your thoughts generally reflect mine.
I think I've recently been saying that today's OP is virtually irrelevant and that G is priced on it's ability to survive on zero net income for a while and, based on that assumption, what may be possible thereafter. Your re-entry target in the 90's accords with my own, although I would possibly start buying back around 105. I'm at my lowest level of G holding in over two years and once my efforts to mitigate all my recent 'paper loss' are concluded I may well decide to jack it in.

The gap between WTI front month (June) and Spot Price has more than halved today, as the rounded June futures price fell from $17 to $12. Spot has been steady at $8 for almost a week.
https://invst.ly/qlfqs

More mayhem for WTI tomorrow then:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Worlds-Largest-Oil-Fund-Is-Once-Again-Crashing-Crude-Markets.html
The United States Oil Fund (USO) that was responsible for last Monday’s oil crash into negative territory is once again shaking up oil markets, and WTI is now down more than 21% on the day.
The USO Fund’s administration, USCF, announced on Monday that it intends to sell off all of its WTI contracts for June delivery—that’s all its front-month contracts that the fund was designed to invest in. Instead, the fund will now focus on futures contracts that are further out. The USO’s breakdown will now be comprised of 30% in the July contract, 15% each in the August, September, October, and December contracts, and 10% in the June 2021 contract.

I never heard of there being a shortage of refined products in the US.
And the building of refineries isn't done by state or federal government in the US, it's a matter for the major oil co's which would surely respond to demand?