Member Info for Boyobach

Yes- but don't forget that OP took a dive from 21st May, dropping about $10 over eight trading days - that would ordinarily account for 30p drop in G - much bigger over the period than the ex-div adjustment .

Agree with you Hydrogen.
I'm back down to 40% of my maximum G holding and keeping an eye on the price today and as it goes ex-div.
96p looks possible to me ex-div at $30 OP - although it does seem a very long shot today!
I'm generally trading swings here and on other stuff rather than buying and holding - market is very fragile.

Yes Hydrogen - OP.com certainly cover Energy in general, not just Oil. James Stafford is the founder and CEO
On the subject of Oil as a 'screaming buy' right now I have to say it hasn't recovered from recent lows as well as some - CWR ( a favourite of Hasiba's I recall) has done pretty well as an example. RDS has been a big disappointment for me so far - I'm hoping it'll prove to be a slow burner but the dividend cut seems to have knocked it right off course for the moment. G, meanwhile, did well up until mid April but has levelled out since. It has recovered so well compared to the usual group that I suspect there's going to be little upside from here until OP improves, Payments re-establish properly and anticipated production projects start earning: https://invst.ly/qxsl6 . I do think that when G goes ex-div it could induce a medium term slump in sp.

Looking at recent price action (15 minute ticks) we can see that , lacking any other stimulus, G is tracking OP fairly closely at a ratio of around 3.4x: https://invst.ly/qxhyx
All other factors remaining the same, the ratio looks set to drop back to just under 3.2x upon ex-div.

Oil Price recently published a bullish view: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Is-The-Oil-Collapse-Over-Already.html
And checks out as ‘clean’ at https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/oil-price/
Some articles can be ‘opinion pieces’ rather than straight reporting, of course. The fact that I didn’t post the bullish link probably reflects my own sentiment rather than that of OilPrice, Hydrogen, that article didn’t convince me.
My impression at the moment is that the balance of pundits seems to be pointing at a long haul for OP.
If you have a source that is cautionary about OilPrice I think we’d all like to know about it as it’s a common point of reference.

It's early days but Brent is so far following the pattern I suggested on Thursday: https://invst.ly/qx28a , which implies that $40 could still be three or four months away. WTI seems to be too high - less than $2 discount to Brent as I write.
Meanwhile, Oil Is Unlikely To Go Much Higher according to this article and to other pundits at the moment:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Is-Unlikely-To-Go-Much-Higher.html

With OP weakening, G managed to stay above 116 for much of the day, falling off towards the end, however:
https://invst.ly/qwg1x
So not especially strong going into ex-div week:
https://invst.ly/qwgf1
And surprisingly coming in last -but-one over the week:
https://invst.ly/qwg5-
If you thought Oil has been a bad investment since Brent ‘peaked’ in October 2018 then you’d be right, here they all are plus the FTSE 100 and PMO (RDSb hiding behind G here): https://invst.ly/qwgcc

Today's price action: dropping below 116 would disconnect G from the nominal 118 level, making a drop to 109-112 more likely: https://invst.ly/qw8xa

Can things be this simple? Probably not...

Does anyone remember when OP gapped down on the 6th March? Here’s a four year view of Brent with the dominant price range for the commodity shown as a shaded pitchfork: https://invst.ly/qv-wb
The suggestion here is that, following the March 6th drop, a ‘new normal’ track for Brent will perhaps follow the lower parallel path offset by about $30 from the previous one until, for fundamental reasons, it shifts back up towards the original.
Given the rule of thumb SP ratio of 3x, that would translate to roughly 90p off G’s previous trading range - which hit a max of about 220 in November, suggesting 130p as an approximate max in the present environment. The model certainly fits with G’s current range which appears to be nominally 100-130:
https://invst.ly/qv-v1
The fact that neither Brent or G’ s price ranges appear to have narrowed in proportion to their lower pricing would indicate, of course, that volatility has increased.

Recently I have posted a few charts comparing 'WTI/USD Spot' against the Front Month WTI in an effort to track the 'super contango' that caused WTI to crash spectacularly in April. Whatever that instrument is (it's provided as a data source by Investing.com) it is not a true reflection of 'WTI Spot' and, although it tracked WTI faithfully up to the crash, it has since remained disconnected from reality at around $11. The only reliable source I've been able to find for WTI Spot is on the EIA website which does help in verifying the data but regrettably is about two days out of date and can't be applied to my charts. Needless to say I won't be attempting to chart WTI Spot for the timebeing.

The problem with a plan, bunks, can be that you follow it too rigidly in circumstances which might be very fluid.
G might hit 130 ish prior to ex-div - although that is beginning to look less likely to me.
Some may well sell into ex-div - so worth watching out for a 'premature' drop.
Remember what happened to G last year after ex-div? True it was driven by a fall in OP and growing Bina Bawi disappointment but at least they were being paid reliably at that time....

For these reasons and more the sp could be even more of a roller coaster than usual - and I'll trade the swings if the opportunities present themselves. Of course, none of that may happen, in which case G will remain steady above 118 and drop to around 110 on ex-div and progressively recover from there (provided payments arrive and other projects don't disappoint).

If the KRG 'committed' to regular payments by the 15th day of each month (unless qualified by the term 'working day' it does mean by date) then their immediate failure to do so has simply reinforced their reputation for unreliability (the kindest interpretation). Not helpful at a sensitive time such as this. It'll be a week overdue tomorrow.
By relaying the word 'committed' rather than toning it back to 'aim to' G have managed to draw even more attention to their achilles heel.

Ha! Correct bunks! I just think before ex-div and maybe by the weekend. It looks like I'm on the same page as Hasiba - if I'm reading his comment correctly.
I'm envisaging a busy few days and don't rule out exiting G entirely in the process.

Fair comment bunks - yes it was certainly decent .
I'm in 'selling mode' at the moment so was looking for a more convincing top as it's managed 130 previously on a lower OP. I'm convinced that although OP is probably on the way back up long term, the current rally will not last.

Being pedantic - but I think 125 was the least we should have expected given OP - especially given WTI's rise off the back of the weekly EIA inventory. I'm anticipating 130 possibly before a pull back but nevertheless did reluctantly take some profits in case things fizzle out prematurely.https://invst.ly/qviel
Hopefully we'll stay on a roll tomorrow....

Good news from the EIA today but is 'The Oil Rally Running On Fumes?' excellent article, as ever, by Nick Cunningham:
.....the price rally may also be the result of speculative positioning – the physical market is trending towards rebalancing, but the rally can also be explained by overly exuberant speculative positioning. “Retail and institutional investors are also likely to have played a key part in the latest price rise.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Oil-Rally-Is-Running-On-Fumes.html

At least G has closed above the 118 resistance tonight - perhaps a chance to revisit some early April highs in the 120's before dropping back ex-div if - as seems likely because there is still plenty of supply available - OP stalls: https://invst.ly/qv4ul .
The usual group since last week's close: https://invst.ly/qv4x1
GKP has either had a spectacular couple of days or a much needed recovery depending on your point of view, here's the same group for the month of May so far: https://invst.ly/qv4-z

This is an interesting technical analysis re OP - he starts with WTI then moves to Brent.
He talks about 'FOMO' driving markets at the moment but does not mention tomorrow's WTI contract expiry, which could be a catalyst for the action IMV :
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/crude-oil-price-forecast-crude-oil-markets-pressed-towards-gap-649947

Considering that G has been dancing up to 117 and higher for the best part of four weeks and that Brent has risen by $13 over the same period, today's performance seems a tad disappointing. The G:OP ratio continues to gradually drop back towards 'normal' levels - currently it is 3.34x. It does start to point to G being potentially limited to around 130 if Brent continues towards $40 (and around 8p less when it goes ex-div.):https://invst.ly/qukol

It’s perhaps worth a recap on how the story has unfolded since Mar 1st - just before things took a serious turn for the worse.
https://invst.ly/quf9k
Only Chevron (-3%, NYE of course) has done better than the FTSE100 (- 9%) over the period and the market has yet to open there today. RDS has taken more of a battering at (-25%), whilst G is a creditable -21%. Because of the balance of my portfolio I’d like to see RDS overtake G from here but frankly happy if both are making progress back towards parity with Chevron - which would put G at around 140p today and RDS at around 1600.