Member Info for Boyobach

Thanks Ocelot. It's a salutary lesson for investors who may be tempted into rather opaque derivatives and contracts.
It seems that even the brokers didn't understand the nature of the WTI settlement terms and, consequently, their software was unable to respond correctly to negative pricing.
The ICE Brent Crude futures contract is a deliverable contract based on EFP delivery but, unlike WTI apparently, it has an option to cash settle against the ICE Brent Index price for the last trading day of the futures contract.
Ocelot's article is also on Yahoo if, like me, you don't have a Bloomberg subscription:
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-crash-busted-broker-computers-144834438.html

US To Remove Patriot Missile Protection From Saudi Arabia
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-To-Withdraw-Patriot-Missiles-From-Saudi-Arabia-Over-Oil-Dispute.html

I'm doing neither at the mo Leem as the price is in 'no-man's land' for me. I sold a few around 117 a while back anticipating a buy back around 105 which didn't materialise - so I 'banked' the cash in RDS when that hit last week's low.
I would still probably top back up at 105 or if RDS rises sufficiently ahead of G to make a swap back attractive (unlikely in the near future IMV). The gap from 131 to 137 clearly presents a marker - the assumption would be that if OP recovers sufficiently then the gap will suddenly fill and the sp might move up a level to possibly trade in the 140 to 170 range. So that discourages me from selling any more at present.

WTI heads up towards $26 but will that hold at the contract roll-over on the 19th? Let’s hope so but remember that those who hold a contract at expiry have to store the oil they’ve just bought (currently at over twice the spot price if the Investing.com data is to be believed) or find someone to buy it pdq.
https://invst.ly/qpuk7
How does that circle get squared? Well something has to give - let’s hope it’s the spot price. Maybe it’s going cheap today to make room for the new stock arriving in late May.

Meanwhile, since last Friday’s close, RDS, Chevron and GKP are about 6% up, although GKP has made a volatile song and dance about it, whilst G is more subdued at around 3% - in line with the FTSE100 - and DNO is actually down 2%
https://invst.ly/qpu-h
Enjoy the BH and Boris' speech.

I don't think there's anything sneaky or manipulative, bunks. I'm assuming you are talking about the sp :OP ratio?
As OP has fallen - to break-even levels - the sp eventually found a downward limit below which it increasingly absorbed further drops in OP, pushing the ratio up to rather meaningless levels. The ratio will inevitably come back down as OP recovers. Pre crisis and KRG payment issues, G was worth about 140p at best with oil at $40 - ie around 3.5xOP, I don't think anything has happened since to make G worth more than that - do you? I hope Hasiba is right about '136 soon' but I'm not counting on it until OP firms up significantly - which, in turn, can't happen until the futures market in the US gets sorted, probably after May 19th.

Interesting to see G’s sp fall back against a stronger OP this morning. As I write, G is only around 3% up on last week’s close but Brent is nearly 20% up. The sp has absorbed much of the fall in OP since February and, unless there is a significant change in G’s fundamentals, this will need to be given back as OP recovers.

Yes , WTI (June) continuing upwards today, pity Spot didn't get the memo: https://invst.ly/qor8h
The two flavours of WTI added to the usual comparison (since last Friday's close): https://invst.ly/qor7s
I'm slightly peeved that G is progressing so well compared to RDS - having piled into the latter on Friday.

As long as he has the support of Ayatollah Sistani then he should succeed, Hasiba. The difficulty will continue to be Shia factions that are subject to Iranian influence.
As the highest Shia religious authority in the country, Sistani consistently seeks to reduce sectarian tensions in Iraqi politics and reduce Iranian influence - an uphill battle.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/revealed-iraqi-shia-leader-sistani-moves-break-irans-grip-over-militia-movement

A very definite rise in WTI (June) to $22+, as Ocelot points out with less reaction for WTI Spot, which remains below $10. I guess this means that holders of the Futures contract are confident that they can either take delivery or have a buyer lined up for a fortnight's time. This rather implies that the Spot price is set to rise sharply at some point . The alternative , of course, would be a repeat of last months collapse. https://invst.ly/qoj7l

An uninspiring day, with G losing about 1.5% since Friday's close. RDS making a feeble start at recovering from last week's dividend disappointment and gaining by a similar percentage: https://invst.ly/qoa7b
About half way to the next WTI expiry and no real sign that the June contract is converging with the spot price, which isn't encouraging : https://invst.ly/qoa58

I was amused by this headline, Ocelot:
'The Great Shale Shut-In Has Begun, Making Good on Trump’s Pledge'
Trump was, of course, in no position to fulfil any such pledge - he had no mechanism to bring about Shale shut-ins. Market forces ensured that the inevitable eventually happened.
Another throw-away comment in the same article is this:
“You cut out what’s easiest to cut out. Right now that’s the Permian -- you lay down the rigs, walk away and you can always come back to it,”
The fund manager who said that is either unaware of or dismissive of the damage done to shale wells that are shut prematurely. It's one reason that US Shale production has not been turned off as rapidly as market circumstances seemed to warrant.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/heres-why-the-world-is-still-producing-more-oil-than-it-needs/
We may have little sympathy for the US Shale companies that have mismanaged the resources for a paltry profit but the crash they precipitated comes at a devastating cost for many of those invested and employed in the industry:
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/Oil-Houston-barrel-West-Texas-price-cost-money-15239867.php

Yes H - huge challenges all around.

Due to some hasty reactions to the RNS, including some from me, G got a lot of stick yesterday. Our excuse, to be fair, would be sensitivity to current pressures on all investments, lack of confidence concerning dealings with the KRG and suspicions about the necessity and ambiguity of the RNS. Meanwhile G also appears to have reached something of a plateau as the current OP and C-19 saga shifts between phases.

Against that backdrop, I dug out my old ‘reality check’ chart that looks at G relative to the usual group + PMO since oil peaked at $86 in 2018:
https://invst.ly/qnjlh

G appears in the top half of the group for much of the time but, unless you factor in dividends, none of them have done well as ‘buy and hold’ investments; with those below the green line currently falling below overall equivalence with Brent. RDS, of course, has just capitulated on maintenance of its dividend level. The chart shows retrospectively where there have been opportune moments to trade or to swap between members of the group. It seems fair to say that trading has been essential to preserving capital value in most members of this group, although gauging when to do so is not always easy. G has recovered extraordinarily well from the recent 55p, outpacing all the others from that bottom point. It has certainly served those who stuck with it very well indeed from that point onward: https://invst.ly/qnk35 . The question now is whether that high performance will be maintained as OP recovers or whether G’s relationship with Brent will naturally ease back to pre-crisis levels.

Well, another week that was - RDSb turned out to be the runt of the litter by a good margin:
https://invst.ly/qnc7i
Watching the physical market v WTI in the US has less activity, on the part of spot, than watching paint dry.
https://invst.ly/qncd1
G, meanwhile, remains relatively stable although the RNS today certainly caused jitters with a few here declaring intentions to sell up. The words 'includes a new draft Production Sharing Contract ('PSC') that seeks to separate the Jurassic oil development from the deeper Triassic natural gas development' at first sight seemed to suggest (on reflection probably inadvertently) that the KRG had issued a new document containing proposals that were unfamiliar to G. Pity.
There'll presumably be a similar RNS regarding Miran in a month's time.

Yes Hydrogen - the saga continues. Plus ça change.

OANDA at $23.8 is over $2 below LCO at the moment but is very similar to the US XBR price for Brent.
Meanwhile, WTI (June) and Physical/Spot or whatever you choose to call it, remain as disconnected as ever:
https://invst.ly/qn8aw

Tartine has, for me, provided a rational and well expressed summary.
A little extra narrative in the RNS might have been helpful.
It appears that the splitting of the Gas and Oil PSCs was contained within the commercial understanding reached in September - although that is implied rather than stated. So, to that extent, it is not a surprise to G.
Today's RNS may have been just a formality triggered by the rights of Termination dates given in the 2019 Results. However, it is a reminder of the fact that progress with gas continues to elude G.

Information taken from the 2019 Results:
1) Termination
Under the existing PSCs for both Bina Bawi and Miran, effective from 30 April 2020 and 31 May 2020 respectively, the KRG has a right (not an obligation) to terminate the PSCs in the absence of new Gas Lifting Agreement(s) being in place. The KRG is required under the PSCs to give notice of its intention to terminate and there are various consequent provisions in the PSC that provide periods for remedy by Genel and/or delay to any purported termination by the KRG.

2) Book values:
Bina Bawi PSC Discovered gas and oil, appraisal: $352.9m
Miran PSC Discovered gas and oil, appraisal: $120.3m

I generally agree with Hasiba.
I think G will continue purely with OIl and will be priced accordingly
No future 'transformation' seems likely, however.
Does anyone know if G would receive any termination payment for the existing Bina Bawi PSC? There is an asset on the books relating to the gas resources is there not? Another write down presumably?
Could have, would have, should have.... the story of G.

Looks like you can finally forget gas as far as G is concerned.
Pearl do the gas in KRI.

I think that charge was just on OANDA?
ICE steady around $25.5 - it switches LCO to July tomorrow, currently $26. be interesting to see where OANDA is then.