Member Info for Boyobach

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts

Some quotes from articles today:

“The bears are likely to maintain control over the near-term with some expected to add to their short positions if the EIA report comes in well-above expectations. However, we’re likely to see short-covering or profit-taking if the Trump administration announces a hard date for the reopening of the economy…..”

“Given the bearish fundamentals, in this case it probably indicates investors are regrouping or taking a breather from the recent price plunge before resuming the sell-off……..”

“There is no feasible agreement that could cut supply by enough to offset such near-term demand losses. However, the past week’s achievements are a solid start.”
“The Energy Information Administration reported a rise of 19.2 million barrels in domestic crude supplies for the week ended April 10. That was the 12th straight weekly climb. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts expected the data to show a rise of 10.1 million barrels.”

It’s interesting the way the market - which is essentially human nature, even when it is algos because they are based on past behaviour - can alternate between being leading or lagging the curve.

Take G, as an example: There are times when the price is moving on correct guesses about where OP will go next (leading) and there are times when OP confounds expectations (lagging)

This morning is a good example, with G falling as OP is rising. G effectively catching up with the reality of the OP drop which the market possibly thinks may settle at around $28. Let’s see what actually happens.
https://invst.ly/qgr0q

The turmoil will pass, as Hasiba says.
In the meantime excess oil is still being over-produced and storage space is running out - except for those who can afford to hire tankers. So where would you put the price of a commodity that is cheap and oversupplied right now but relatively expensive to store.... I would say 'even cheaper'
Buy-back G Leem? Ha! Depends on the chart on the day: there's really no substantial support from here down to 85 is there?
https://invst.ly/qgjg-
but I would probably start buying back at 100 ish whilst anticipating low 80s again. I'm back down to 40% of my peak holding and have cash but no motivation to jump back in. It all depends on OP - which could still be way off the bottom in view of the OPEC+ cut being less than 50% of what is needed and the Shale boys' heads being almost literally buried in the sand. I might just go fishing, except I don't have a rod.

That can be the problem when support eventually gives way - like an elastic snapping...

Glad you held off, Jack - there'll be opportunities I'm sure.

Here's the usual comparison set plus WTI since last week’s close:
https://invst.ly/qgfub

G ended the day a bit predictably, https://invst.ly/qgfvs and not looking good for tomorrow unless you are in buy-back mode (as I am, at the moment).

Woa Jack !
My post was a warning - not an encouragement to buy just yet....

Having risen for a couple of days from around $25, OP then levelled off from the 3rd of April whilst G continued to rise on the ‘red escalator’, reaching a peak of 130 before levelling off in the 116 to 130 range.
Now, however, OP is retreating and the downward ‘blue escalator’ marks the slope, with G’s 116 support increasingly under pressure: https://invst.ly/qgetz

Yes indeed Hasiba.
And the heavier Asian discounts should not hit G and GKP because KRI oil goes via Ceyhan to the Mediterranean market.

https://www.zerohedge.com/

Saudis Quietly Launch New Price War:

This weekend's 11th hour decision to cut OPEC oil output by 23% was supposed to end the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC+, but it appears Saudi Arabia did not get the memo.

While oil production may (or may not) be cut by 9.7mmb/d on May 1, Riyadh remembered that to capture market share one can manipulate volumes, which are now set as per this weekend's OPEC+ agreement or one can adjust price discounts, which are not. And as the kingdom faces stiff competition from rival suppliers for market share in the prized Asian market (or at least what's left of it after India cut demand by 70%), the OPEC leader slashed its official selling prices to Asian customers for May by larger-than-expected margins this week, while keeping prices flat for Europe and raising them for the United States.

Yep -The world is choking on too much crude and will run out of places to store it within a month, according to trading giant Gunvor Group, and Pioneer's Scott Sheffield warned "we're crippled at $30" and said that Cushing storage will be full in 4-5 weeks.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/were-crippled-30-oil-prices-hold-big-losses-after-massive-crude-build?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

Back on the down escalator again, maybe?
https://invst.ly/qgax6
G is performing well nonetheless.
As Hasiba generally points out, there are opportunities every step of the way.
I would simply add that for every opportunity there is a potential pitfall so you have to mind your step.

Glad to hear Hawkey is still in touch.

116 is certainly under pressure today: https://invst.ly/qgakz ,
especially with OP heading for $27: https://invst.ly/qgak1
Anything over 100 is frankly remarkable IMV.

GKP does look good value by comparison - but will it bounce back as quickly?

GKP is certainly interesting Hasiba - I don't often look at it (one Kurdy risk is quite enough for me) but the sentiment is obviously out of sync with G and I really don't know why:
https://invst.ly/qg20x
The 'market collapse' gap is 115-136 over there but, unlike G and many others, GKP has never got close to it. It's either very good value right now or there's something not quite right or investors over there are way more cautious than G holders (was not always the case). If it's the latter then I can't say I disagree with them. Oil and Oil related is probably going to be a bumpier ride than usual - and it's never been exactly smooth.

LSE seems to be playing up, fifth attempt to post….

Yes indeed Ocelot, bunks as I echo below…G might easily have been around 110 on recent performance v Brent, although 116 would have probably held. So better than 120 is very positive.

A week in the life of G in 15 minute segments v RDS and Brent:
https://invst.ly/qfzn9

Pretty good considering - which is not a guarantee, of course.

If anything rather stronger than RDS although the two broadly track over the period, with G naturally more volatile, it’s when they noticeably diverge that things get more interesting.

As far as today went - here are the usual suspects (in 5min steps) plus, because it may now be of more interest, the price of WTI as well as Brent:

https://invst.ly/qfzr8

The scale of the WTI drop and GKP’s volatility stand out, along with G and RDS failing to observe social distancing - two best mates for the moment.

And the Houston perspective (article):

Rather than agree to any formal cuts, Trump is counting on market forces to shave some 2 million barrels a day of overall U.S. output by the end of the year. U.S.-focused oil producers have already slashed more than $27 billion from drilling budgets this year and are starting to shut in production. That could spell the end for some shale explorers drowning in debt.....

Almost 40% of oil and natural gas producers face insolvency within the year if crude prices remain near $30 a barrel, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Oil producer Whiting Petroleum Corp. and service provider Hornbeck Offshore Services Inc. filed for bankruptcy last week. Explorers idled 10% of the U.S. oil-drilling fleet, with more than half of the losses in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, the heart of America’s shale industry, while Concho Resources Inc. said Friday that it and other producers are shutting in output.

After the deal, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts called the deal “too little, too late”, and said they expect inland U.S. crude prices to decline further in coming weeks as storage fills up.
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Trump-s-Big-Oil-Deal-Won-t-Save-the-Weakest-15196361.php

Oil loses ground as focus shifts from output cuts back to demand hit...

It ain't rocket science is it?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-loses-ground-as-focus-shifts-from-output-cuts-back-to-demand-hit-2020-04-14

ATB Jack. Maybe you'll find a nice re-entry.
If you sold above 127 then there was up to 10p to be made on re-entry this morning.
As a LT holder of G I remain invested but at a substantially lower level of exposure. I do regard 129 as about the top intra-day , with 127 being the resistance for closing/opening as far as I'm concerned. The trading range of 116-129 seems established for the moment.

There's a gap from 130 to 137 which occurred when the market plunged
https://invst.ly/qftlh
In my view G will not close that gap until the market - the Oil sector specifically - closes the same gap that features in sp's across the group.
G does not logically warrant an sp much above 130 unless/until one is able to anticipate a full recovery to OP above $45, resumption of normal payments and no long-term issues. The market isn't likely to take that view for a while yet IMV.

"Having been involved in the negotiations, to put it mildly, the number that OPEC+ is looking to cut is 20 Million Barrels a day, not the 10 Million that is generally being reported."

Well OPEC+ managed just less than 10 Million bpd, so where's the other 10 million barrels coming from? USA & Mexico? They would struggle to agree to 5 million apparently.

Since last Thursday's LSE close, Chevron (US Market open today) seems to be settling about 2% down and otherwise tracking OP. Two flavours of Bent shown (NY Crude and LCO Futures). G and the others have naturally not moved so all on the 0% line:
https://invst.ly/qfiqu