Member Info for Boyobach

Ocelot - US Shale will certainly survive, it's just the over leveraged producers that won't. 'Big Oil' will step in and hoover up the best of the resources and then control cap-ex better. It does mean that OP will still have a ceiling governed by Shale and pretty soon we'll know where the floor is! My guess is OP ultimately in the $40-$60 range, perhaps in 12 months, with G maybe 150p at that stage on 2019 levels of production and payments re-established.

Leem: It's lunchtime, so let's look at that blue escalator: https://invst.ly/qb2jp
Still watching then.

Yep.
Anyway, I'm taking a break till lunchtime - at which point we'll have a better idea if G is going to stay on the 'down' escalator (blue) now that we've got to the 82p level, with 76 the next floor down: https://invst.ly/qb0v1

Well we are up to date really, Leem: KRG are in default until further notice and production is tailing off whilst OP is low and COVID19 affects operations. Frankly, I'd prefer production to stop entirely whilst it is unprofitable but I realise that's an over-simplistic approach.

Watching closely this morning Leem, to see what will happen at 82. The trends are following a pattern but volatility - the spread of prices within the trend - is much reduced compared to yesterday morning: https://invst.ly/qa-oo

I agree about 90p Leem. It's finished the wrong side of that and drifting down :
https://invst.ly/qaqlh
Not especially promising for tomorrow....

G has been the disappointing performer of the pack since Friday's close (unless you happen to have scalped some profits on today's high):
https://invst.ly/qaqgb
Unless last Wednesday's peak was indicative of something significant, it was inevitable that the gap between G and GKP and DNO would close up - and that's what seems to be happening.
Currently settling around 90p methinks - unless more buyers step forward and provided OP doesn't wobble.

Yes Hasiba - I explained why too.

Trends are much more useful as an indicator of change rather than as a predictive tool. This is primarily because they reflect what has happened previously, so when the sp breaks through one it suggests that the direction may be changing.
Here’s G on a 5 minute chart and the trends it has followed for the last week or so:
https://invst.ly/qan0l
Here’s a closer look at today:
https://invst.ly/qan10

Not easy to time or second-guess at all, Whitehat.
Having said earlier in the day that I wasn't interested above 70p, I had to accept that the market was moving very differently.
The clue came very late in the day - and it was hardly convincing:
https://invst.ly/qaldt
On this 5 minute chart G had moved out of the falling blue trend in the morning - just levelling off perhaps - but later started to follow upward red. I bought a few before the close. Will it continue with red? Unlikely imv but worth a punt as I'm in profit.

I agree Jack.
Michael Knights is a respected and well-connected analyst who has specialised in KRI affairs for many years. This doesn't guarantee his advice is followed, of course, but his is an important voice.

OK, Here’s a fairly definitive reality check on G's sp in relation to others for this month:
https://invst.ly/qabqa
It's the usual comparison for the month to date but with a FTSE100 line and also two flavours of Brent: ICE for June (which shortly becomes the LCO Future) and XBR (NY Brent) OANDA (regrettably not available here) is roughly in the middle. The prices would ordinarily converge again over the next couple of days.

G can be seen to have dropped smartly this morning but (to my surprise) recovered half of the fall, steadying at a level similar to before last Wednesday’s brief spike. This is encouraging as it suggests the market it ‘relaxed’ about G’s current sp around 85 even at historically low levels of OP, so maybe $54 won't be revisited?
It also suggests no real concern about KRG payment issue, as the sp:Brent ratio is around 3.5x which is healthier than it was for most of 2019. That last point is a mystery to me but, clearly the market isn’t as gloomy as me.

Against the FTSE, G has obviously been pretty erratic but since the FY report has recovered rather more than the other KRI producers though rather less than the majors, having edged down in comparison to them today.

sorry Leem - that was 3.5 days. But the point is that G is actually doing OK, it is just Wednesday's spike that has been wiped out.

To be fair Leem, the record shows G performing pretty well overall for that period relative to the others, with the spike upwards last Wednesday maybe distorting the impression:
https://invst.ly/qa7qv
My comments have been quite gloomy over the weekend but G is holding surprisingly steady today as far as I'm concerned.

Operating here is a high risk....
Absolutely Jim.
And since January the risk has been rising with every day that passes.

'......guess they could make some bargain acquisitions and get away from KRG.'
I wonder what shareholders would make of that, Leem? Sticking cash which might be needed to survive into a 'distressed' company when the cause of the distress is still present and potentially getting deeper. Sounds like a recipe for self destruction to me.

Looking at G’s performance relative to RDS, Brent and FTSE100 since mid February:
https://invst.ly/qa36u
there is quite a strong correlation between G and RDS with a couple of clear exceptions:
The drop to 54p immediately before the FY results.
The combined drop on Friday and today.
When viewed in this context, the rise up to 116 on Wednesday was consistent with RDS’s behaviour - although it placed G at an extraordinarily high price relative to Brent.

Because it is reasonably imminent and large in relation to the current sp, the dividend declaration arguably added 10p to G’s price - always remembering that this will come back off on ex-div day.

Meanwhile OP has dropped about $2 since G was 54p and the likelihood of KRG payment resumption has, if anything, deteriorated.

So, if 54p represented the ex-div bottom for G nearly a fortnight ago and Brent has dropped a further $2 since and KRG payments are at least as distant as ever, why should we logically expect the sp to be higher than 64p today? Bilgin have been buying, of course, but that didn’t stop the price falling previously did it ?

Sometimes it's best to sit on hands, Leem - I'm doing that right now.
As far as G is concerned what can they do? Shut down production? It's probably not as easy as that.

Not sure I want to, Leem.
Not interested above 70 for sure.

Once the dividend has been paid, how much is G really worth with no immediate prospect of any revenue?
Although OP must eventually re-balance to $40+ , how long will that take with the current excess of supply and global storage full to capacity? And, even at $40, can/will the KRG pay its IOC's ? Could G be expected to continue operations for many more months with no revenue and low margins for some time after?