Member Info for Boyobach

Some slackening-off for G today after two spectacular trading days. It will be interesting to see how it performs after the US market opens. Last three days (from Thursday's close): https://invst.ly/q7z8j

You might get it via Amazon Prime , I understand.

Ha! I'm glad you are liaising with KRG, Hasiba - 2 metres is a must!
inshallah indeed! Although as a Christopher Hitchens adherent in matters of religion, I doubt that His will is a barrier.
I also doubt that, even with fund managers buying, G will establish itself above 90p unless OP regains $30, especially if the KRG matter remains unresolved. I still think G may yet retrace 10+ p but I'm not so convinced of this 'analysis' that I'm selling any. It's a tricky time for sure. ATB

I don't think GKP are holding us back.
I think G got a bit ahead of itself since Thursday's close and that H's comments provide a clue as to why.
Here are the five v Brent since beginning of the month: https://invst.ly/q7w25
And here's G v 3x Brent: https://invst.ly/q7w8w
If you compare today's sp to close on Thursday, G is about 30p up (50%) at the same OP - fantastic but realistic given the uncertainties?

Tartine - you are correct, I'm sure. Things about to get bumpier in my view. I doubt that today will prove to have been a particularly good one for buying G - but time will tell.

Interesting H.
No bunks, I was not on the right track. Expected a drop back below 80p. But H's post explains why G has not moved quite as expected and often in the opposite direction to RDS and Brent.
Beautiful to watch the last couple of days: https://invst.ly/q7msj
It would be good if it fully regained the 90p support AND the bottom blue trend at 92p here:
https://invst.ly/q7mp8

That's a trick worth remembering. Ha!
That performance v OP is better than when G was around 180p on 20th Feb. Woud put it over 190.

US market making the difference it seems.

Interesting price action around 2pm, with G pushing 3.2x Brent on the boyo ratio. Here's how it looks on the daily chart v 3xBrent: https://invst.ly/q7jzo
... and on the last five days v Brent and the others: https://invst.ly/q7k06

I bought and sold G this morning btw. Trading for a few £100 passes the time indoors.

G is certainly resilient today - tracking RDS rather than Brent:
https://invst.ly/q7j0p
The G:Brent ratio around 3.1x . Will it sustain that under the current circumstances? It's really trying to regain that 82p support: https://invst.ly/q7j3g

Yes JL.
G is still well up on Friday morning's open, which I don't quite understand - if it was a reaction to the FY statement it was a very delayed reaction. I sold the few few I'd bought during the low at around 83 and have re-acquired this morning - but half expecting it to drop again. Here it is v Brent (green) and RDS (brown) since Friday's open: https://invst.ly/q7esh

WTI Analysts have estimated the U.S. rig count will drop by hundreds of units in coming months....."The impact of the fall in oil price will start to show up later this month or next,” said James Williams of WTRG Economics in Arkansas, noting “Rig activity should start to decline with the typical 3-4 month lag behind oil prices.”
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/u-s-drillers-this-week-cut-most-oil-rigs-since-april-baker-hughes/

Petronas - A convenient cutting of costs?
If, in addition to COVID19 risks, you weren't being paid......

The real rate of spread is rather more important to the living majority than the death rate - tragic and noteworthy as that number surely is.

To continue to spread, the virus must move from one viable host (who will only support it for a limited time) to at least one other. Onward transmission, until the host overcomes it or vice versa, is essential for it to remain in circulation. Once the percentage of transmissions is inhibited sufficiently it will fade rapidly. It may already be doing so - we cannot tell because the 'confirmed' case numbers do not reflect the total and are well 'behind the curve' as far as the daily total number of ongoing cases are concerned. It is therefore likely that by the time a drop is reported the decline in spread would have been in progress for some time. That would not, of course, be a sensible time to resume normal activities as it would just trigger a second wave.

Ha!
You do know who Mr Icke is, how he came to embark upon New Age Conspiracism and what informs him, Hasiba?
His views are not contrarian because that would imply he has a logical and evidence -based contra-viewpoint.
His views are not Bonkers, because that word truly understates the idiocy that he promulgates.

Cheers JL - and good luck during the market recovery phase. To what extent that recovery will involve oil-related companies like G remains to be seen. It would be tough enough if G was getting paid: I'll be scalping every step of the way IF the sp rises along with OP. It may well be the only way to salvage something here. I'm not expecting to see 150p plus for a good while.

US Tight Oil - Shale - cannot now be destroyed by the market because it physically exists in the ground having been ‘unlocked’ by developments which were made possible by the $100+ OP years, during which OPEC failed to moderate prices. Greed begets greed.

The smaller companies that pump Tight Oil may be destroyed by today’s low prices, but their resources and reserves will simply pass into another’s hands at ‘distressed’ prices..

To that extent, OPEC are reaping what they sowed by allowing prices to reach $100+ a few years ago. Indeed, today’s apparent global average of production costs seem to limit Brent’s price to below $60 unless the frackers restrain their urge to pump at low margins.

Together with the possible permanent effects on global demand resulting from COVID19 and the accelerating introduction of greener technology, KSA’s ‘pump till they slump’ policy may be a last ditch attempt to stave off the inevitable demise of Oil dependency and sell off as many barrels as possible in the diminishing time they have left. For it seems that the expensive oil of 2011 to 2014 may well have hastened the result that the Saudi OIl minister way back in 1973, Sheik Yamani, predicted when he reputedly said: "The Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stones."

The USA conveniently likes to characterise OPEC as a 'cartel' when it suits their purpose. But when it comes to protecting their own interests they are happy to 'assist' KSA in controlling prices. It is total hypocrisy.
Oil is a valuable resource that should not be pumped and burned cheaply and with wanton abandon. It should be conserved and used with respect for life on this planet. This means that it should be priced in a manner that discourages excessive use and encourages alternative sources of energy. US shale producers have no respect for this: they have found the means to extract and sell large quantities of unconventional oil at marginal profits, they flare gas with no regard to the consequences, whilst conventional oil remains in the ground.
The US accuses KSA etc of dumping oil on the market but in reality wants to support its own shale industry, where costs per bbl are three or more time higher.
I hope they get roasted

On Thursday - after the FY Report & Div announcement - G closed at 60p with Brent at $27 ie 2.22x - similar to the rest of the week. But by the close on Friday G was nearly 84p with Brent nearly $28, ie3x . Brent has since dropped back to Thursday’s best.

This is how the last week ran for our usual five: https://invst.ly/q6zay
(DNO not shown in full because this happens: https://invst.ly/q6zbj )

Did confirmation of the dividend cause nearly half of Friday’s 24p sp rise? And, if so, did it take a full 24 hours for that effect to occur? Or was Friday's gain more solidly based? I'm anticipating some retrace but could well be wrong in this weird market.

The value of the dividend is somewhat illusory because the sp will drop by that amount when it goes ex-div (although this change can be offset or enhanced by other market forces on the day). So it is effectively ‘cost neutral’ overall in terms of acquiring a share.

Ultimately a share is worth what it is worth over the long term, with payment of a dividend affecting the price only a relatively short while before and a short while after. The intended dividend has caused G’s yield to become very high currently, which could backfire over time if the sp does not rise, as higher yields tend to be associated with proportionately higher risks.