Member Info for Boyobach

Having said all that, closing at anything over 116 could prove to be a significant step in G's recovery. And the sp seems destined to keep testing it:
https://invst.ly/qcwky

An entertaining morning with G, which is still on the 'up' escalator but not quite landing permanently on the 117/118 level.
https://invst.ly/qcvyq
A nice 6% to be made earlier for those minded to hop off at the top and re-enter an hour or so later.

I was referring to LCO - always do, except when I specifically say OANDA (which is not generally quoted in the press)
DNO did have a massive rise on Friday but, as I pointed out, was really only making up ground. Yes, some profit taking to be expected.
Yes, I think $40 is a long way up given the current position - almost too much physical oil for available storage. Whatever Russia and OPEC do they can't instantly create a balance of supply and demand.
The opposite price moves of DNO and G were just very striking - and in G's case a bit counter-intuitive given the direction of Brent today, although it does otherwise fit with the chart: https://invst.ly/qcuik

Interesting to see G and DNO move in totally opposite directions this morning. To say that G's price reflects optimism would be an understatement: https://invst.ly/qctfr
RDS very subdued in contrast.
Buyers of G are clearly making the assumption that OP will soon be nearer to $40.

“....particularly if U.S. oil producers will not join with voluntary cuts.”

The US argues that it cannot control oil production in the land of the free. But, in reality, the mechanisms do exist but shale producers have been granted waivers from environmental regulations which enables their reckless behaviour:

‘ the Federal government does not control oil and gas production in Texas, the people of Texas do through the State Constitution and by reliance on the Railroad Commission of Texas to uphold laws that prevent resource waste and promote resource conservation.’

(Quote from https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/2020/03/27/Hold-My-Beer-I-Can-Fix-This )

Those US producers appear to be stronger than their regulator or, perhaps, they have the regulator in their pocket. At best, it seems from the article, the RCT appears to have been complicit in allowing the plundering and poor management of a valuable national resource.

Hawks and Doves: One thing for sure is that the real strategies and intentions of the main players is carefully concealed.
Of the three dominant countries involved, the US is probably the most relaxed about low OP because the majority of US citizens and the economy is accustomed to, and thrives upon, relatively cheap fuel. However, if the price is too low the home industry gets damaged. The US and Russian leaders would apparently be content with $40 -$50 Brent but this does not satisfy KSA's national needs. In fact $40-$50 is possibly worst case for them - too little market share at that price, even though the margin is higher. So, as the lowest cost producer their solution is to undercut the others and maximise their market share. If you can sell 20% more oil by discounting by 10% (for example) it's a no brainer...

So ‘Oil set to plunge Monday as key OPEC meeting delayed amid rising tensions’ according to Seeking Alpha.

A bit melodramatic under the circumstances as we all knew that $34+ was potentially a bubble based on anticipation of the much vaunted OPEC+ meeting, which has apparently been postponed rather than cancelled. $2 of the rise occurred after the LSE closed. So by ‘plunge’ we are presumably talking about a drop-back to what point exactly? $27 or $22 ? Both of which have been seen recently and neither would therefore be a shock. $27 would be proportionate - not that the market is always rational.

Although G, DNO and GKP seemed almost oblivious, RDS was already dropping back on Friday. The euphoria sparked by Trump’s grandstanding about sorting out OP was a precarious basis for buying heavily into oil stocks at recent highs - especially when much can change over a weekend.

Friday - before, during and since - on a 5 min chart: https://invst.ly/qcirc

Over the week since last Friday’s close we can see that G has performed slightly better than its peers in the usual group except for DNO, which stands out by a significant margin at first sight:
https://invst.ly/qc56e
However, a view of the period since 1st of March - when C-19 really started to have a serious effect on prices - and we can see that DNO was largely making up for lost ground and surpassing G in the process.
https://invst.ly/qc5bi

Quite why GKP should now be noticeably lagging the group is a mystery to me. Perhaps it is due to the legitimate postponement of the full results and decision regarding dividend. G, meanwhile, did hit 109 today when LCO was in the region of $33, a ratio of 3.3x so slackening off as might be expected. Why expected? Well because G’s sp appears to have absorbed some of OP’s fall from $50 so I’d expect that to even out as OP recovers.

.......can often result in over confidence and big mistakes....
Yes - overconfidence can be expensive. Fortunately with G no one should experience that.
Mistakes are as big as the trade..... so it's about discipline and only dealing in tranches proportional to the risk you want to take and sensibly spreading that risk. While a 10p change in sp might matter to a day trader in G today, it's not such a big deal if you are averaging over several tranches that you plan to hold until the sp recovers to 150p + .

As I've just noted, G's reaction to the OP this afternoon was quite reserved and proportionate (still about 3.3x, which is strong).
The KRG's payments have obviously reassured the market to some extent and appear to have added 10p to the range whilst strengthening OP probably did the rest:
Here's a 5 miute view of G today v OP rebased (not at 3x!)
https://invst.ly/qbp96

Stupid High, bunks?
Well 116 last week was one example. Though the problem with that type of 'high' is that, by the time you've confirmed there's no credible reason for it, the price has collapsed back towards sensible territory.
Today's OP hike to near $36 on the basis of some Trump mumblings was another one - although G's reaction was unfortunately quite restrained because I'd have sold at 120+

Afternoon fireworks are getting to be a bit routine around here...
https://invst.ly/qbn30

I sold some at the top late yesterday, nearly sold some more this morning but was too slow out of bed. Decided to re-load if it drops back to lower 80s or sell some more north of 98p - but all depending on the chart and apparent direction of the market. I've now got a limit buy set and don't intend to sell today unless the price goes stupid high. Doing other stuff for now. Since I reduced my capital exposure to G and moved more into RDS I'm much more relaxed about G - what will be will be and I'll happily trade the volatility, which is nowadays more prevalent here than GKP.

I'd have to agree with you on that Leem.
Apart from the gung-ho bullish brigade early on, G certainly isn't breaking upward from around 90p this morning. Quite understandable too....the world is awash with oil it isn't using. Shares in storage facilities is what we should be looking for....
The OP apparently got boosted (temporarily? ) by Trump's vague comments yesterday about the need for some sort of US - KSA - Russia oil production deal - now there's a reliable source upon which to base your investment strategy.
One mechanism the US has for controlling national output is the Railroad Commission of Texas, interesting opinion piece here:
https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/2020/03/27/Hold-My-Beer-I-Can-Fix-This

Fun and games in casino hour, bunks. G js back on the 'up' escalator, although those red lines might need to be tweaked as the day progresses: https://invst.ly/qbftn
Keep an eye on the G:OP ratio: above 3.5 has got some optimism built in, over 4 and the oxygen is getting a bit thin.

With Taq Taq's payment in, the position appears to be back to the two month delay period announced in November. At least it hasn't got worse - which is a big deal right now:
Production…..Paym't Due....Month Paid…Status
Aug 19…….....Nov 19……...Jan 20……….Paid
Sep 19…….....Dec 19……...Jan 20……….Paid
Oct 19………..Jan 20……….Mar 20………Paid
Nov 19…….…Feb 20……………………….Overdue
Dec 19…….....Mar 20……………………….Overdue
Jan 20……..... Apr 20……………………... .Due this month

Interesting that the pull back from G’s sharp move up to 92 yesterday (1/4/20) coincided with a similar move by Brent, RDS and Chevron. The Oslo market was closed by that stage so the DNO price line is constant here, in the 5minute chart of the day. Perhaps G might otherwise have held on to 90p. Could be interesting today....

https://invst.ly/qbbhx

I don't think we should count on any relief as far as OP is concerned for some months. At current prices, the average for the year to date could be down to around $40 by the end of May - it's down to $50 now by my reckoning.
With the KRG making a payment today there is at least a sign that they recognise the need to cooperate and, as long as the company is confident it isn't a one-way street then it should be possible to reach an 'accommodation' that works for all parties. Also important to ensure the crews working in KRI are protected and working safely within guidelines etc.

Too busy taking my profit there Leem.
Back to business tomorrow - could be 82 by the looks of it. But who cares? 10% plus in a day....
https://invst.ly/qb6oo

Yep - doing Ok and levelling out at..... f me have you seen it go?