Member Info for Boyobach

Yes Hasiba - some music and performers become part of the soundtrack of our lives without us even realising

G rose sharply this morning during 'casino hour' (marked below) and then kept going after OP turned back. If this is sustained it's good news, of course. I just felt it was a bit too good to be true. A profit is a profit after all, especially when it's new money in the game:
https://invst.ly/q6ran

Yes, Hasiba.
For anyone re-cycling G cash from sales as it fell from 150+ then anything below 90p can look like a good move - provided you will make a net profit from the recycling, of course. Assuming OP eventually recovers to $35 then G should make it to 105p, but there's still the KRI risk to weigh up. I think stop losses could be your friend if you need to protect yourself from further damage. Here's G from the historic low:
https://invst.ly/q6q5z

I was wondering what they might do with the massive surplus:
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/majors-look-to-store-jet-fuel-at-sea-as-air-travel-drastically-curbed/

The risks with rapid risers, where 'new money' is involved, is that the percentage rise or fall is relatively large. So, there's a temptation for some of yesterday's buyers to take a quick profit causing the price to retrace. Volatility can be high as a result.
Here's G over the last couple of days v RDS (brown) and Brent (Green). :
https://invst.ly/q6nwe
For LT holders in G , who might commit new money in order to average down, it might be wise to top up in stages and use stop losses to lock-in profits at each stage. There is an obvious risk that, having risen sharply ahead of the field today that there could be a retrace. The covid saga, delayed payments and the OP issue still have a long way to run. But it seems we've potentially seen the bottom.

An excellent rise today for anyone who put 'new money' into G yesterday. The dividend yield at this level effectively discounting the price significantly, of course. Not quite back to 3x Brent, which hasn't recaptured $30 yet:
https://invst.ly/q6mw5
Here's the Brent based comparison with the others since last Friday:
https://invst.ly/q6m-1

I have to declare that I'm currently minded to take a further gamble on G when the time is right - which could be tomorrow or maybe next month. But I recognise that it is a gamble: neither OPEC nor the KRG are reliable in my view and the course of COVID-19 is not near a conclusion. However, I think both KRG and OPEC must and will ultimately act pragmatically in terms of business, trade and their own self-interests. COVID-19, of course, will last as long as it can.
During the price drop I rotated investments - ie sold shares in G and PFC and bought in RDS and others , which I will retain. I am now at the point of potentially introducing 'new' cash and today's statement has caused me to favour placing this with G, having re-balanced over the last couple of weeks. I am basing this on a modest OP improvement to $40 - $45 and a G sp of 120p +. A return to 200p and beyond would be desirable but 120p is my first target. For me, the payment issue is an enormous disincentive - I would have bought without hesitation on today's low otherwise.

Production….Paym't Due...Month Paid...Status
Aug 19…….....Nov 19……...Jan 20……...Paid
Sep 19…….....Dec 19……...Jan 20……....Paid
Oct 19………..Jan 20……………………....Ovedue
Nov 19…….…Feb 20……………………....Overdue
Dec 19……......Mar 20……………………....Due mid March

For G there was an annual statement today. It was good but it left unavoidable doubts.

The market reacted to that statement and, had there been no doubts, the sp would, in my opinion, have been rising more strongly towards 3x OP, ie 80p+ . It doesn’t seem to be happening, although it did punch ahead of GKP - an equally beset KRI producer.

So doubts remain: about OP recovery and about the ‘Other Thing’. These are huge and any punt on G currently has these two risks, where the likes of RDS and non-KRI oil co's has but one.

Here’s the last six days comparison, DNO is absent on account of a weird trip to +140%, which is presumably a data glitch, that messes up the chart. DNO ended up near RDS: https://invst.ly/q6djh

G, meanwhile did see some boost today and volume was up - as can be seen here:
https://invst.ly/q6dn1

Maybe tomorrow…..

Jim800: ......but whilst cash is only flowing out I'm hesitant.

Yep!

We are all down the pub JL - it's in the cloud, so we are not breaking any quarantine rules.

There's a lot of detail in the narrative and the matter of payments is candidly reported. I don't think we can complain about flowery language. It is clear that there are issues with the KRG that are slowing progress, in addition to payments, the delay in documents relating to Bina Bawi is disappointing.

On Somaliland, the use of past tense ( Genel had been aiming to conclude the farm-out process in H1 2020.) indicates that we should not be expecting too much in the near future,

Good comments Whitehat.
I hope that 10k of shares gives you a good return eventually.

It's all gone Boom Bang-a-Bang Dodger!

KSA and Russia can have their cake and eat it if they are smart enough and, given the current global situation, low demand would have naturally driven the price down without the need for an increase in supply.

$25 Brent and WTI in the reqion of $20 is an overkill and hurts their own economies more than necessary. $35 Brent/$30 WTI would probably be sufficiently low to drive out the uneconomic Shale producers who pump record quantities just to service debt. Any shale that survives at $30 WTI probably can't be killed off. The producers that go bust will have their resources acquired - probably at bargain prices - but hopefully by larger companies that exercise better cost and profit control and don't produce high volumes at uneconomic rates.

Yes Hasiba - keep cash safe. I do expect to use some eventually but it'll probably be a good while yet.

G closed at 54.60, Leem, which I'll happily take as 'on the support' - especially as the actual low it's based on was 54.5 three years ago.
https://invst.ly/q5toi
Anyway, as you exited a while back you have cash so why are you checking this out? You should be spoiled for choice.

Just to add to the previous:
G may well have done badly over the last six days: https://invst.ly/q5pu0 compared to others but see how it has tested 55p support three times whilst OP has continued to fall. Some grounds for optimism there. L'm watching rather than buying - not too concerned about catching the absolute bottom and things are generally still moving down. I actually parked some G trading cash in BT this week at 112 - not expecting any fireworks, just looking for something that might not drop as fast - gained over 15% earlier today although it's dropped back now. Will use it for G or another recovery stock when the time is right.

I see Hasiba has added - it crossed my mind too.
Here’s an interesting chart for those pondering re-entry points. It’s 5 minute candles with Brent (green) and RDS (brown) lines rebased to Friday 13th open. It shows G’s accelerating divergence from the other two: https://invst.ly/q5o1x

The acceleration may well be because investors have assumed the sp will inevitably fall to the historic floor at 55p - like a gravitational pull.

This is NOT a guaranteed floor, of course, but I think it may well pause here even if OP continues to fall temporarily to the lower $20's.

I disagree Hasiba. Better for production to be reduced whilst OP is low.
Reduced cap-ex and conservation of reserves is best under the current circumstances.

Two timely and informative RNS's today.