Member Info for Boyobach

Indeed Klassic. I'm not convinced today's match will lift my spirits but there's always hope! I think they needed a wake-up call and the French certainly gave them that.

As the market continues to fall, it’s time to take a longer and harder look at G:
https://invst.ly/q1ltf

Historic trends and support levels start to become more relevant as they map out the most likely levels that would apply in the event that G continues to fall. No commentary seems necessary as the picture spells it out.

This should not be read or interpreted as gloomy deramping. Whilst the covid-19 issue should not be dismissed or trivialised it should equally be viewed proportionately. The economic and commercial impact has so far been far more severe than the rate of infection and mortality would seem to justify. Record levels of production in the US should not be a surprise either, a drowning man will struggle ever harder until he finally sinks.

I'll have another shot at pasting that table, see if this works:

Production….Paym't Due...Month Paid...Status
Aug 19…..…...Nov 19……...Jan 20…….....Paid
Sep 19…….....Dec 19……...Jan 20…….....Paid
Oct 19……….Jan 20………………….…....Ovedue
Nov 19……….Feb 20………………..…......Overdue
Dec 19…….....Mar 20…………………........Due mid March

Ha! Great post by Hasiba.

Just to cheer everyone up (not) as in Leem's absence we need some miserable input, I have the following payments table based on the information that seems to be available. Tables don't work especially well here, so this may not come out too well - it's an experiment. The accuracy is subject to the information I have been able to gather - so please post a correction if you know better :

Production Paym't Due Month Paid Status
Aug 19 Nov 19 Jan 20 Paid
Sep 19 Dec 19 Jan 20 Paid
Oct 19 Jan 20 Overdue
Nov 19 Feb 20 Overdue
Dec 19 Mar 20 Due mid March

I don't think Jandialbi's post is correct - GKP isn't yet that close to the consolidation price which I think was about 120p on 12/12/16. However, GKP's price - like G's and every other oil co is not clever.

GKP and G tend to weave around each other, the gap between them up to 12% on the chart rebased to peak OP in 2018. Except for Brent as a reference, I’ve switched the others off for this snapshot, which shows that there’s nothing particularly unusual currently - although the share buybacks really don’t seem to have done GKP a lot of good, as Dodger has pointed out. The boot was on the other foot back in September. I’ve never attempted to switch between them but, as mentioned on previous occasions by myself and others, it seems to be a trick that some people do use and, in hindsight, it’s easy to see how profitable that might have been:

https://invst.ly/q0z6n (chart captured before today's close)

Well said Jim. But if G kitchen sinks yet again (they have an impressive track record of write downs and disappointments over the years) then the Reasons to be Cheerful will look even more like Excuses to be Deluded than they do already.
G have stated that 2019 revenue was down $54m due to the missed payments. Yes - MISSED - they did not occur within the financial year so created a hole in revenue.
They need that $54m this year if 2020's revenue is going to be respectable given the current fall in OP. According to G's guidance (all payments will be up to date in Q1) , they expect three month's worth of payments in the next 27 days. I'm not convinced it'll happen.

Yeah - Chevron up after the UK closed - maybe G will follow tomorrow?
https://invst.ly/q0np-
But ignore DNO - volatile as f*ck - I can't figure that one out at all. It's a real loose cannon despite share buy-backs etc etc. It makes PMO look quite serene in comparison: https://invst.ly/q0nrc

Brent v G and the others since Feb 1st, pre the impact of COVID-19 .
https://invst.ly/q0m5x
We can see that G and GKP were tracking the major RDS pretty well until yesterday but looks like they started to lose contact even before the EIA report today.

Desperation?
US Shale margins must surely be tighter than their oil.
Why, at this point, would OPEC+ not seek to play the same game and go for market share? OP could be heading into the dust due to this .
I see the WTI Brent differential is down to about $4.50 too.

Totally correct Bunks. With you 100%
There was a bit in the T&O update and then an RNS from G on 31st Jan. But it's all like piecing a jig-saw together with pieces missing .Taq Taq and Tawke are necessarily reported separately but DNO is even more opaque than G - only reporting the payments within that overall update. Left to their own devices they could legitimately claim that the overdue payments have been received (which they apparently have) but obscure the fact that payments in 2020 will still represent only 12 months of production rather than the 14 which are actually due to make up for the loss of revenue in 2019.

Hi Klassic - I realised you weren't being fatuous - but I did duck the question because charts are ok for providing a clue about how or where the crowd is moving and might be likely to turn. But in this case they are not going to be much help in determining the floor in OP - which is what could ultimately determine G's minimum revenues and consequently sp.
The floor in OP is supposedly dependent on US Shale break-even costs and the general impression seems to be this is in the low $40 range, allow +$6 for Brent and it's somewhere around $50, where it is now. That would place G in the 135 - 170 range on typical performance v OP. All pure speculation on my part!

Hydrogen - as far as I'm concerned payments will remain behind until all payments are back to a 2.5 delay between the month of production and settlement. At the moment it appears from the RNS's we've seen that settlement is happening 4 months after the production month.

it clearly states two overdue 2019 payments have been received in 2020......

Yes bunks, that wasn't my point. A 'normal' payment (for October) was due in January too . Then February's 'normal' payment (for November). I don't believe either of those have been received yet.

Bunks: So maybe they were both received - clear as mud Klassic.....

DNO don't usually report payments and G seem to respect that - so they don't issue RNS's about Tawke unless DNO have already done so. GKP appears to be the only guide we have and, based on that, I think the August and September payments have been received but don't think G or DNO received anything in Feb. So, in my view we are still two months behind schedule because payments for October (due in Jan) and November (due in Feb) have fallen due but appear not to have been paid. I deeply suspect that the 'hole' in 2019 payments will therefore not be filled anytime soon. The clue is that Hawkey was told (if I remember correctly) that it was like moving from weekly to monthly pay. That's a bad analogy on a number of levels and implies the payment period (free credit period) has been unilaterally extended by the customer, KRG, from 2.5 months to 4.5 months without any agreement or price renegotiation. But we are not at the end of Q1 yet - so my cynicism may turn to embarrassment for doubting G's guidance if all comes good by the end of March.

Hi Klassic- I don't do sorcery, just history and the likely moves (based on past behaviour).
I don't see a capitulation point. G is performing consistently with its peers - OP is down and so is the sp, hardly rocket science although the sp is down disproportionately at the moment (like the majors) because the market is spooked because of a massive uncertainty. If COVID-19 takes out the number of people that Spanish flu did around 1918 (40 million was a conservative estimate) then the demand for oil might be the least of our concerns. You are right about KRG payments - disappointing!!! What about the match on Saturday?

I blinked didn't I ?
Could be a month or two until $60 and 200p for G.
Unless the annual results and statement are a rocket launcher.

Here’s the last five days:
https://invst.ly/q08z0

Those of you who stress about G minute by minute may benefit from comparing this to last night’s post:
https://invst.ly/p-tqx

The various sp’s simply weave around each other UNLESS and UNTIL something fundamental changes for one of them. By fundamental I mean a market re-evaluation - which hasn’t happened for G in over 18 months: https://invst.ly/q0932

So, unless you are trading G on a daily basis I’d suggest you stop watching the price in isolation but pay attention to longer term trends and resistance/support lines (effectively the price channel it moves in).

A disappointing drop-back after a promising start. Things have certainly changed: Back on the 10th Feb, G was around 182 at $53 OP (marked here):

https://invst.ly/q03yl (chart from Feb1)

DNO may be lifting faster today but look at the catching-up it needs to do.
US market not long opened so we may see Chevron react a bit more (flat line when market closed obviously)

For what sort of reason would he need the bank to vote on his behalf.....
He doesn't.
And the bank probably doesn't intend to vote either.
Share buybacks probably increased his % voting rights over 30% and the simplest way to rectify that, without selling any shares would be to assign the rights to the bank.

No apologies needed - H, Ocelot - we all thought there was a significant acquisition of shares in progress. It was also good to be reminded about Focus Investments, the role of Davy and the continued holding of a major investor. The Notification Form covers a variety of scenarios and, because we (well me certainly) don't read them routinely, it's easy to skim over them making assumptions.
I do suspect that in preparing for the FY report a few i's and t's needed to be dotted and crossed, so I'm not in 'conspiracy mode'. As Ocelot pointed out, Karamehmet's holding was within a gnat's of 30% even before buybacks shifted the numbers - a point I was oblivious to. Today's looking good meanwhile - G moving in step with OP.
We are going to have to live with COVID-19. The development of immunity to novel viruses - or failing to - is an essential aspect of being members of a living species on a planet that's teeming with developing life-forms looking for a host.