Member Info for Boyobach

Wolfbag 132
Boyo 155
ocelot 165

Like Wolfbag, I doubt there’s much appetite for FC this week. His entry of 132 looks logical from a chart perspective and is one reason I’m not inclined to top-up without seeing how the wind blows on Monday. On that basis alone I’d have gone for something between 126 and 135: https://invst.ly/p-ctj

However, noting Ocelot’s comment and bunks pointing out the uptick in the US markets at Friday’s close of play there is perhaps room to be more optimistic than the chart suggests, especially as OP is $50 and G has generally held to the 3x ratio. All of which may see the 151 support line survive, albeit battered down to 149 to accommodate Friday’s overshoot.

So I’m in for 155. Mug or what?

Quite correct JL - 2008 was on a different scale entirely and due to a massive pile of bad debt, ie a sinkhole of non existent cash.
Today's issue is different and caused by a sharp fall in production and activity, most of which (except for travel) will simply be delayed. Rather like our payments from the KRG, which continue to be two months overdue as nothing appears to have been received in February.

What a cynical and duplicitous bunch our financial markets are.....

It's a herd and, like it or not, we are part of it.

Yes JL. The evidence so far seems to be that the economic effects are disproportionate to the numbers affected and needing treatment or quarantine procedures.
The handling of some scenarios - eg quarantine restrictions on both sick and healthy people together in a poorly controlled closed environment like a boat or hotel - seems to have been the disaster you might expect.

No, bunks - as I said, an opportunity missed. Once the fall below 166 accelerated it would have been too little too late.
It'll be down to a possible use of cash if I have the appetite when the bottom is established.

During the current carnage, as mentioned by bunks previously, it can be stressful watching the sp and running comparisons minute by minute. So it’s somewhat reassuring to see that since the year began G has performed consistently and favourably compared to the other oil companies in my usual group. Here they all are rebased to 1st Jan: https://invst.ly/pzyrk

The beauty of the chart being Brent v the rest (rather than, say, G v Brent and the rest) is that it shows the Brent price changes whilst the market is closed.

G’s reaction to he COVID-19 issue seems to have been entirely in step with the others since last Friday (21st) so we can be quite confident that G will ultimately recover in similar fashion.

I’d have to confess that, much as I use charts for guidance I don’t necessarily do what they indicate I should do. After all, they are not always right and we must ultimately follow our instincts. But charts rarely give a clearer signal than they did on 25th/ 26th (dropping through the trend at 166, returning briefly to kiss the line then continuing downwards). https://invst.ly/pzyzf

I was busy with mundane stuff and I failed to react quickly. A deep reluctance to selling on my part doesn’t help - and leads to dither.

So, an opportunity missed by me - although it would still have left the lesser dilemma of when to buy-back . A lesser dilemma because the ‘profit’ would simply be growing whilst the market falls. How low might that be? Well, for that we’d need to look at OP and hope that the 3x ratio holds (as it is currently). I’d be inclined to guess at $43 -circled here: https://invst.ly/pzz3w which could put G at around 130. It’s wait and see time for me.

Cheers bunks.
I used to get similarly wound up about 'snapshot' price movement comparisons (it's especially worth noting that the + or - numbers and percentages can sometimes refer to either the change from the day's open or the movement since yesterday's close). But more generally, it is often the case that shares in different companies do not always move in sync or for the same reasons - especially if they are traded across different markets - so you can often only do a realistic comparison over hours or even days.
Here are the last five days, I've left Tullow on there - it so happens G comes out best over that period but it's really swings and roundabouts TBH: https://invst.ly/pz4vc

Just as a matter of interest, bunks pointed out yesterday that G was getting beaten up by just about everyone else. He listed rather too many for me to deal with quickly or in one chart but I thought I'd check Tullow which was the most noticeable:
Tullow Oil plc TLW 38.05 GBX +2.05 (5.69%)
It was a big difference from G, but when you look at the five day chart (from the 20th) it adds context:
https://invst.ly/pyx46
There was certainly a spike in Tullow but it effectively made up for three days of slippage against G - it then fell back.
I'd be happy to look at any specific comparisons with G that I don't routinely post (RDSb/Chevron/GKP/DNO) although I do think they are relevant for checking G's performance ( a couple of majors and two KRI producers).

Tensions running a bit high here, I think. Understandable given the state of the market .

G is currently performing consistently with its peers as any rational view would confirm. And, despite some volatility, it has generally done so for over a year.
G, GKP, RDSb and Chevron are all down about 8% over the last week (five full trading days). Brent is down 5% over the same period: https://invst.ly/pypq6 . The commodity more closely reflects the reality of supply/demand whilst the stock market reflects sentiment and anticipation. Generalised and non-specific comments about G's performance are not informative or helpful.
The company has promising projects in the pipeline but has less cash immediately available than it originally anticipated due to payment delays. Under the circumstances, it is managing the balancing act prudently in my view.

The charts are a record over time - no rocket science or manipulation provided you are mindful of the period chosen, which is why I do use different time periods for the comparisons. Daily percentage numbers are often misleading because of the time difference. I find charts over very short time periods can also tell a distorted story
Regrettably the charts do point to 150 as things stand in the market, as 1msn has mentioned.
https://invst.ly/pykj2
So it's steady on the buy button for me. 150 (actually 151.20) was the dec 18 low . The prospective good news is that the recovery from there to around 200p was swift. Now a potential 33% profit is worth a punt even if COVID -19 sticks around for a while. I'm saving a fortune on holidays too - so might pump some cash in.
BTW Do you remember Spanish Flu ? I don't - well before my time - but nor did many of the generation that experienced it due to First World War censorship. However I understand it did infect over a quarter of the world's population and killed around 10% of them - including lots of youngsters, not just octogenarians, which did mark it out as a bit special.

It is worth noting, for those who think G's performance is poor, that it has generally been respectable given market circumstances. Here's the usual 'hourly' comparison with Brent since October:
https://invst.ly/pyh04
In this comparison G has remained on a par with Chevron overall, though often ahead of it, and is about 5% down in line with Brent. DNO is markedly down (around 45%) whilst GKP and RDS are both down about 20% - not forgetting that GKP has continued buybacks throughout the period from the 10th December to today.

Well quite a change since my last post in this particular thread.
Ordinarily 166, down on the trend line and with no fundamentals change in G would represent a buy point . But this is different - the market is in retreat and so is OP, so there's a greater chance of further falls. G has also fallen below that orange wedge line, which isn't a recommendation to leap in.
https://invst.ly/pya5s
Here's a reminder of how far back that wedge goes: https://invst.ly/pya7m

G is, however, holding at 3x - which is significantly better than the 2.6x to 2.7x we've seen in the last twelve months.
I was tempted to buy today but prudence ruled. I'm also still unhappy about the payments (sorry Hawkey but here we are near the end of the month with two payments outstanding again). Next month is the end of Q1, so I hope this gets put to bed before April fool's day.

I concur with Hasiba's comments regarding the OP pressure on US Shale - I reckon OPEC+ might just let them sweat a bit more and may not cut that deeply or quickly.

A sharp change in sentiment across the market today, which sees G slip to its lowest trend line from December 2018 low in OP around $52. https://invst.ly/py59f

However, in reality - as others have said - G is faring no better or worse than Oil Cos generally. Here's the usual bunch since oil peaked at $86: https://invst.ly/py582

According to my notes, the receivables agreement runs to July 2022.
I have downgrade my expectations of G so many times, Tartine, that 350 is now beyond my target.
Good play by France on Saturday btw - a deserved win.

Brent sharply down since LSE closed on Friday, where will it be when market opens at 8am?
https://invst.ly/pxxrh
https://invst.ly/pxxrp
And where will G be?

I tend to agree that it's relatively safe Hydrogen because I think that oil is artificially under-priced currently because of overproduction of an ultimately limited resource. But in terms of 2x or more for G from here (360p) - which I presume JL was referring to as a 'bagger' in the first post of this thread - I agree with him: it isn't likely to happen soon and it may not happen within G's quite limited window of opportunity. It's a game of chicken as far as I can see.

OilyStuffBlog quote:

2019 was going to be THE year, once again, the shale industry starting raking in the free cash flow...........
'These shale guys are trying hard to cut spending to pay dividends to pi55ed off investors and or engage in stock buybacks; nobody is paying down much debt, however. None of these shale fellas have any business paying dividends; hell, they don't make any money!! When those dividends start eating away at reserve replacement ratios, then all hell is going to break lose. Investors are stupid; they made a mistake and now they want restitution, which in turn will drive the shale industry into the dirt.'
https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/2020/02/22/Cartoon-Of-the-Week

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8848g5/government-agency-warns-global-oil-industry-is-on-the-brink-of-a-meltdown :

A government research report produced by Finland warns that the increasingly unsustainable economics of the oil industry could derail the global financial system within the next few years.

...without making money:
From article: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/schafer-shale-oil-passed-its-peak-without-making-money/ar-BB102aRe

Up until 2014, the value of oil producers in the stock market more or less tracked the price of oil. But that year was as good as it ever got for shale oil investors. Oil production has increased since then, with last year the biggest output so far for North Dakota, but the value of the companies doing that work has mostly gone sideways or down.

The total return to shareholders in the sector in the last decade was effectively zero, Evercore ISI analysts pointed out in January, vs. about 300% for the S&P 500. Meanwhile, the 15 CEOs they tracked among oil-producer companies, as a group, collected about $2 billion in pay.

Investors and industry analysts have been demanding the leaders of oil companies to take what they have come to call “the pledge.” That’s a promise that they are going to live within their means, pay back their loans and generate market-rate returns on the capital investors have given them.

Stop and think about that for a second and try not to laugh. A big industry had to be asked to promise to make money.

The industry did much better in 2019, West said, outspending its cash flow by only a couple of percentage points rather than the wild spending of previous years.

“They are all saying they’re going to be within cash flow in 2020,” he said. “We’ll see. It may be a little bit harder with oil prices doing what they’ve been doing the last couple of weeks,” as the main benchmark oil price has declined so far this year.