Member Info for Boyobach

In response to JackSalad:
The problem is, Jack, we are in the dark about payments. G and DNO do not generally report them as a matter of routine. If anything, DNO seem even more reticent than G - which G then respects when it comes to reporting receipts in respect of Tawke.

We were originally told that delayed payments due in November and December would be received in January - this implied that a total of three months’ worth of payments would be received during this month. Then, in the T&O Update, I believe this was relaxed from January to Q1. It smells as far as I’m concerned.

Meanwhile, GKP - who routinely give payment updates - haven’t issued one for Shaikan since 8th Jan. My conclusion, therefore, is that whilst G’s payments appear to have resumed this month they are now running 2 months behind schedule. If this is the case then the hole in G’s 2019 revenue may not be filled during 2020.

G is virtually at the same level as 5 days ago whilst Brent is 9% ($5+) lower:
https://invst.ly/po3nz

The sp has effectively absorbed the OP drop over the last few days and, because of that, it won’t necessarily rise immediately if OP recovers. Sometimes it tracks OP and sometimes it doesn’t, especially if the market regards a move in OP as temporary - like when the KSA facilities were targeted back in September. Think of it as an elastic connection. Meanwhile, GKP continue
to buy back shares, so a direct comparison regarding resilience isn't easy to make.

However, by remaining tight to that trend line in the region of 194, there is good reason to suppose that G will start to trade above it if OP becomes sufficiently and firmly favourable ($63+ maybe)
https://invst.ly/po3rs

Article: 'Shale slams on the brakes as financial stress deepens'
The rig count has been declining for more than a year, and the pace of production growth has slowed dramatically. Bankruptcies are once again on the rise, and some of the largest oilfield services companies are starting to look elsewhere. Most analysts see production continuing to rise, at least for a while, but after a decade of growth, the U.S. shale campaign is facing fundamental questions about its longevity.
http://energyfuse.org/shale-slams-on-brakes-as-financial-stress-deepens/

We should all recognise that over the last five trading days - and today in particular - we have G performing very well indeed.
Here are the last five days for G v the usual Kurdy and majors - remember that GKP are buying back currently and did so again today:
https://invst.ly/pnkom
Here is G v 3xBrent - note that G, on average performance, G would be where Brent's green line is (ie around 175p) :
https://invst.ly/pnkma

Well I can't disagree with that, Hydrogen. It's a very robust performance in this market and it certainly seems to have established a floor. I also agree with Hawkey's observations regarding US shale - I think some producers there may have mis-timed their cap-ex for 2020. Maybe G will find some distressed assets to pick up.

Yes Hydrogen. My concern would be how far that increasing factor can stretch before it snaps back to 3x or less.
The counter argument is that OP may not have much further to go - this is where the Brent differential to WTI is worth watching. It's about $6 - with WTI now below $53. This will be hurting a lot of TO producers and is not a long-term sustainable price.

Like I suggested last Wednesday afternoon, Brent (LCO, Mar 20 ) has now dropped below $60. Tonight it hit $58.84 (ICE Mar 20) at 23.08. OANDA following closely at 01.00 Let's hope it stays above $58...

Er...Just a mo Hawkey, Hasiba - I’m loving your effusive praise for charismatic and psychic Mayor bunks but just how many times do you think he's won FC recently?
Hasiba thinks ‘Bunks is the champion for sixth time’s running!'

Let’s guess how many out of the last six it actually was…...

I think it might be 2 - which is outstanding - although Withoutt recently did do it twice in a row....

Boyo 190
Bunks 195
Hasiba 195.10
Withoutt 198
Hawkey 200
ocelot 215

Well done bunks - I did say early in the week that yours was a shrewd choice given that 194 was likely to present some resistance. But none of us at that point would have known how much oil was going to drop during the last three days nor the excellent resilience that G showed. What might G have done if OP had remained above $64? That drop in OP should ordinarily have been worth about 7p off the sp.
https://invst.ly/pmpwr so, would G have potentially gained as much if OP had remained flat?
Next week’s FC entries are all a punt on whether OP will continue to fall and the extent to which G’s sp will remain elastic: either continuing to absorb OP variations (whether down or up) or snapping if it falls further. The risk (ie chances greater than 50/50) seem to be to the downside, which will influence my entry.

A strong week for G, outperforming all the others here except GKP which is again being propped up by buybacks:
https://invst.ly/pmhak
G v OP very nearly 3.2x
But if G just keeps walking sideways next week's FC winner may already have been indicated by Hasiba.
https://invst.ly/pmhpl

Yes Jim - net cash either exists or it doesn't!
As far as 2019 is concerned it didn't come up to expectations due to non-payment of 2 months (16%?) . It's as simple as that.
If 2020 benefits from a consequential enhancement then all will be fine. But if not.......

I utterly agree Tartine -although I'm slightly more optimistic about the range: I think 230 is achievable.
I also agree with Hydrogen but as a long term holder, as I believe you are, I follow a strategy to optimise my capital exposure to G, with a good safety margin, whilst maintaining or building a core long term holding. This inevitably involves trading: top slicing and re-acquiring if the price is right. G remains risky - as the recent blip in payments, last year's write down of Miran and the protracted (2 year) wrangle over Bina Bawi have demonstrated and I would not invest my life savings in it. Wishing you all the best.

Yes Ocelot - fair volume today and there's good support around the trend line at 192.
https://invst.ly/plzn2
Support can act rather like a shock absorber, ironing out the bumps in OP - reduces the effect of the OP fall but can tend to do the same when OP recovers. G ratio to OP improving daily at the moment as Brent drops. Let's hope OP doesn't test it too much!

Quite remarkable resilience in G's sp v OP, which has dropped from $65 at last Friday's close to $62.5 (LCO) as I write.
The G:OP ratio is up to 3.09x , equivalent to an sp of 200p at $65 - ie a gain v OP of 10p over the last four days.

One line stood out for me:
'The stacked equipment will not return to service in the near future, the company said.'
It's worth remembering that the second 'shale boom' was partly made possible by all the cheap equipment that came available at knock down prices after the first boom collapsed.

Nope

There's obviously some upward pressure on G which is being offset by the fall in OP.
This is where the G:OP ratio helps explain - up over 3x today, which it hasn't done since November. G now above Brent on this chart of G v Brentx3: https://invst.ly/plefo

OP has now dropped well out of its autumn (3 month) trend. On past form it could be heading for sub $60. Let’s hope not. Here’s a 12month+ view of Brent showing the main trends:
https://invst.ly/ple79

Quite impressive firmness in G (and GKP tbf) so far today given the weakening in OP and general market doldrums.
No EIA numbers 'till tomorrow....