Member Info for Boyobach

Hi JL! The long-term (three year) trend in Brent has been up (higher lows over time). The medium-term (3 month) trend too is still upwards, with no sign of breaking downwards. https://invst.ly/pj77g
We seem set fair to meet EIA forecasts of $64 average for the year. Hopefully with a nice peak before next winter comes around.

Ha! You could do worse than RDS, Hawkey - it's sometimes where I 'park' capital when I sell a tranche or two of G and wait for a buy-back point . Although Chevron has actually done better over recent times.

'its income......'

Relax Hawkey and don't worry about the unknowns - just store them away in terms of probability.
G are doing ok and the company is what it is. There are opportunities which may or may not come to fruition which will be a bonus if they happen. Meanwhile, it's income is entirely KRI based, not diversified and there has been a glitch in payments that resonates with their 'previous' - so the sp is and will remain discounted. You don't need to cheer-lead for them - they have an in-house team for that. The sp will probably remain in the 170-240 range until a genuinely 'transformational' event happens. That word has been around for a long time (I think Tony used it.....) so my advice to them would be to find another word and my advice to you would be save your energy, take the divi's, top slice and top up as and when appropriate - the charts make it pretty easy to pick levels and G usually offers a few good opportunities a year. Pour yourself a glass and de-stress.

Here is the usual comparison chart from $86 Brent but with just G and Brent:
https://invst.ly/piwse

When G (red) is above Brent (green) it is doing better than 2.9x Brent.
The dashed green horizontal is at today’s OP (-24.85% from the $86 Peak)
My immediate observation: G is priced similarly by the market today as it was in November 2018. That does seem a bit disappointing given today’s update. As others have said, it must be the KRI discount effect.

Here’s the full version with all the usual runners and riders:
https://invst.ly/piwr9

ignore the references to RDS and Chevron on the chart (forgot to hide 'em)

G's sp hit the 'average' 3x $ OP earlier.
https://invst.ly/pivta
I agree with Tartine's earlier assessment that the price will move sideways, certainly until Bina Bawi is nearing production or Sarta revenue flowing (depending on declines elsewhere). It could happen this year but....
So It looks like the rule of thumb for 2020 may remain the same as the last eighteen months:
Mulitply OP ($) by 3 for the mid value add 25p for top and subtract 25 p for bottom.
My job is done.

Despite today's uplift, G remains below its November sp at an equivalent OP.
The red arrow here marks the price before ex-div and the payment delay RNS - 191p - so almost average.
The green arrow marks the 'pullback' level after the spike - 201p - so not a 'demanding' target given the present circumstances.
https://invst.ly/pirf-

With the T&O update pushing G up about 3%, the sp v OP ratio has edged up to over 2.9x , still below the average performance of 3x. Here's the current five day comparison with Brent, Chevron, RDS, GKP and DNO:
https://invst.ly/piqqz

I'd say 'realistic' rather than 'underwhelming ', Tartine.
Although, having waited around for years, it certainly does feel like that.
In general, I agree that the essentials of the FY seem to be set out here and I don't expect the sp to shoot the lights out just yet.

Bina Bawi: ......as soon as they turn the taps on. 6-8 months away.....
Where do you get that timescale from Hydrogen?

'The Company expects full recovery of outstanding payments in Q1'
Was supposed to be January wasn't it?
Regarding 2020 FCF, it should reflect cash actually received within the period - which would necessarily include the outstanding payments. There will be an increase in expenditure during 2020 on the new developments (including cap-ex) which will limit FCF. Best to assume that the number does include the overdue cash from 2019.
Regarding the competition, in my view no one was right. I realised my entry was way too high within seconds of posting the number. 'Pro Forma' FCF is a meaningless number - it's simply what it should have been but wasn't. Try spending money you should have received but didn't.

Other DNO announcements:
Oslo, 15 January, 2020 - DNO ASA, the Norwegian oil and gas operator, today purchased USD 5.0 million in nominal value of FAPE01 bonds (ISIN NO0010811268) originally issued by Faroe Petroleum...

Oslo, 14 January 2020 - DNO ASA, the Norwegian oil and gas operator, today announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary DNO Norge AS has been awarded participation in 10 exploration licenses, of which two are operatorships, under Norway's Awards in Predefined Areas (APA) 2019 licensing round.

Of the 10 new licenses, five are in the North Sea, two in the Norwegian Sea and three in the Barents Sea. Prior to today's announcement, DNO held interests in 87 licenses offshore Norway, of which 22 are operated by the Company.

It's not all gloom -
The last four days have seen the KRI companies' sps firm up v Brent with G performing well against its peers in the region:
https://invst.ly/pi8da
G leading the way since early October too:
https://invst.ly/pi8be

Indeed Tartine. Especially in places where there is no existing infrastructure.

A short piece that explains the US Tight Oil debt situation.
It's from November but the situation won't have improved since then....
https://youtu.be/pyhZ6w5ZC_4?t=16

....today. Now this one says there's loads of the stuff:
' A new report from Rystad Energy finds that global oil and gas discoveries outside of the United States in fact reached a 4-year high during 2019, and the vast majority of them had nothing to do with shale or fracking.'
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/the-oil-and-gas-situation-in-the-midst-of-a-major-global-boom/

.. a game of two halves?
Following on from a couple of the posts today, I thought I’d do a long term reality check to compare DNO and G since G was launched. This is because DNO has recently been quite a poor performer even though they have now bought back 10% of the stock. They certainly don’t seem to be as concerned with liquidity as G, as Ocelot has pointed out, although G have only bought back around 1% according to my reckoning. Here's the first half:
https://invst.ly/phy2d
We can see that DNO hit the heights at +300% in 2014 before OP crashed, ISIS came along and the KRG stopped paying. Nowadays DNO is a much more modest +70% , bearing in mind that OP is now 40% down compared to the early days of this chart.

G, however, plumbed the depths 2016-2018 and was -92% at one point whilst DNO never fell below -6%, pretty remarkable under the circumstances. Taq Taq write downs and a few dusters certainly took their toll on G. But whereas the peaks in DNO’s sp up to 2015 used to echo in G’s price they don’t seem to do so quite so much these days. It’s been a bad decade to be in oil.

If we rebase the chart from March 2016 we get a different story, the second half: a sense of G rising like a phoenix after the disasters of the first four years. This comparison shows how G has performed vs DNO in survival mode: https://invst.ly/phxxu
A comparable run apart from:G getting ahead of itself in the summer of 2018 and DNO losing its way in the summer of 2019.
How will this ultimately pan out for the two teams?

Yeah -
PMO is regularly featured on my 'go-to' comparison chart so I thought I'd add the other two as a one-off ( there'd be just too many on here for regular use).
https://invst.ly/phwa5
The beauty of this comparison is that it's based on a reference point that doesn't particularly favour any of them and they are all re-based at a real OP 'high' ($86) - so if they weren't performing at that point then they really have no excuses.
It's noticeable that PMO, RKH and ENQ all seem to be recovering from a period in the wilderness - after about 15 months as bottom of the pack from a Long-Term pov

Just for you Leem:
https://invst.ly/phvtc