Member Info for Boyobach

Today's RNS is in line with guidance and expectations and was communicated correctly.
It would be fairly unusual for invoices to be lumped together for payment.
It is only January 8th.
The payment position is better than it was yesterday and the situation has improved.
There is no rational basis for negativity at this stage.

In its article about the funeral in Iran on the Beeb website I did find this amusing:
'..... the crowds were large enough to be seen in satellite images....'
so about the size of my back garden?
Plainly, however, the crowds were genuinely huge. 40 dead as a result apparently, which, whatever your views about the man, is a tragic over-reaction. Probably says a lot about the culture and why the region is so unstable.

It's doing better, Leem, but not quite so mental when you see where it was relative to the others in December 2018 -
https://invst.ly/petoj

Cheers Jack
Would have been better if I'd managed to post the complete chart with the previous iterations I mentioned. Ha!
https://invst.ly/petis

re-posted with missing chart added.....
Despite a couple of apparent breakouts, the strongest and most recent in November, G’s sp continues to be pinned down by a wedge pattern that dates back to the summer of 2018. It’s the lurid pink line here:
https://invst.ly/pet83
There have been a couple of variants as shown by the thinner pink lines but the current one is, for now, the one to watch. The truth is that such patterns never disappear. If the sp does break out and continue upwards then the slope simply reduces until the sp eventually rises above the origin - which in this case is at around 300 and it then becomes a rising trend. So there is always a ceiling to be broken.
Here’s a closer view: https://invst.ly/pesy9

The failure of G to stay above the current line is, frankly, about as disappointing as it gets. Today’s sp around 178 is truly dismal with OP at $68, effectively 26p below par based on average performance v OP and more than 50p below November’s performance (OP being higher at present). How much of this is due to confidence dented by the payment issue and compounded by regional instability is hard to say but it seems indicative of the discount that we can expect to be applied to KRI investments.

Despite a couple of apparent breakouts, the strongest and most recent in November, G’s sp continues to be pinned down by a wedge pattern that dates back to the summer of 2018. It’s the lurid pink line here:

There have been a couple of variants as shown by the thinner pink lines but the current one is, for now, the one to watch. The truth is that such patterns never disappear. If the sp does break out and continue upwards then the slope simply reduces until the sp eventually rises above the origin - which in this case is at around 300 and it then becomes a rising trend. So there is always a ceiling to be broken.
Here’s a closer view: https://invst.ly/pesy9

The failure of G to stay above the current line is, frankly, about as disappointing as it gets. Today’s sp around 178 is truly dismal with OP at $68, effectively 26p below par based on average performance v OP and more than 50p below November’s performance (OP being higher at present). How much of this is due to confidence dented by the payment issue and compounded by regional instability is hard to say but it seems indicative of the discount that we can expect to be applied to KRI investments.

Market reaction, as far as OP is concerned, seems to be quickly moderating: the spike has been much less than experienced following the attack on Saudi facilities in October, on the left here: https://invst.ly/pepne .
Yesterday's drop in G may well have been partly due to the assumed impact on Sarta production following the withdrawal of Chevron personnel, although it appears that the affect will be minimal.

really want the US to leave?
The Iraqi response to Friday’s assassination has necessarily expressed sympathy to Iran and angry rebuke to the US. Whilst many in the country will, in reality, have been glad to see Soleimani consigned to history their representatives sensibly abstained rather than vote against the resolution which was ‘non binding’ and a necessary piece of political theatre. But what will the Baghdad government ultimately do?

Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is a consistent voice of unity and reason in Iraq and, when you are trying to figure out what Baghdad might do next, it can be useful to check out what he is saying which, according to the NY Times is this: ‘We call on all concerned parties to behave with self restraint and act wisely.’ So whilst he has also condemned the US action he does not appear to be calling for their removal from the country. For, irksome as the US presence must be to him, he presumably recognises that it is a necessary evil in the protection of his community, just as Iranian influence is probably an unwelcome consequence of their help in establishing some of the militias that he called for in the fight against IS. This article from early December gives some background on this very influential figure.

.https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/sistani-not-so-hidden-hand-behind-iraqi-politics

Yes Hawkey - a Reuters report says:
The U.S. major has a small operation in Iraq that is expected to begin producing 20,000 barrels of oil per day by mid-year. Operations are continuing with local staff and expatriates working remotely,.....

The market obviously feels that G (and its Kurdish peers) are less likely to benefit from the OP rise than producers in other regions. The risks for G have obviously increased and the timing of events in relation to the payment hiatus could not be worse.
Here are the three amigos v RDS, Chevron and two flavours of Brent (spot & futures) since 10th October:
https://invst.ly/pea-6
and the last five days (without Chevron)
https://invst.ly/pebd3

DNO was buying today too (1,900,000) according to a mandatory notification:

The KRG are responding to events diplomatically, have expressed condolences to Iran and have not hindered the Iraqi parliament in its somewhat symbolic resolution regarding foreign forces. The KRI is not the centre of attention and can maintain a low profile as events play out. If they are smart the KRG will maintain their good relations with US, Russia, Turkey and Iran and let Baghdad take the political heat. Any disruption is likely to be in the south.

Kirkuk is not under KRG control/protection.

Despite all the market gloom, Brent has been steadily rising since early October
https://invst.ly/pdsv0 . The New Year dip in price didn’t have time to significantly dent this upward trend before events on Friday pushed the price back up.
Here’s a wider 2.5 year view, which puts the longer-term red trends and shorter-term blue trends into context: https://invst.ly/pdsxa .

Will OP continue upwards? Very possibly - but don’t forget the way supply can quickly outstrip demand if the price rises too rapidly or too much, causing OP to ultimately collapse like a soufflé - rather more quickly than it rises, as the long term chart demonstrates time and time again.

All of which will matter little if payments do not resume on schedule, of course.

Hi Rangor - nice comment.
No, not a typo. When I won the FC with the lowest punt just before Christmas I said I'd enter at 222 up to the end of January - so I'm sticking to that. It makes a nice change for me to enter the highest prediction, even if it is highly unlikely until payments arrive in full. Until then, your 195 looks like top whack.
Once full payments are in and up to date I think 210 should become the low end of the sp range at $69 OP leading up to the FY results and divi declaration, with 230 -240 a realistic target imo - although 230+ will probably represent a challenge.
Obviously the US-Iran situation adds a new dynamic, although I don't think it will have much direct impact on G as the dust settles. With Soleimani gone the Iranians have lost a key leader and strategist and if they react in haste they are more likely to make mistakes which will be useful to intelligence services.

Wolfbag 189
Hawkey 190
Boyo 222

So here's G since 25th September - the date chosen because G closed at its average level of 3x Brent$ .
You'll see that RDS and Chevron are also on there, re-based to the same day.
https://invst.ly/pd7fi
Three takeaways:
1) G has performed the same as the two majors over the period.
2) They have all done equally badly - very badly v OP - over the period.
3) G has lost all the gains it made in November plus some more.

There's not a lot between G and GKP over the last five days.
G has been hit harder today but up until that point had been running ahead of GKP.
Overall they are both around 2% down over the last five trading days whilst OP is up about 3% depending on which flavour of Brent you follow - both shown here: https://invst.ly/pd6oa
RDS is an indication of how 'non KRI' oil co's might be doing in comparison - interesting to see DNO doing similarly to the major over the same period, presumably buybacks still in progress there.

Let's see when the dust settles....

GKP, who are in the same boat as us with regards payments, are sitting fractionally down because they're still being propped up by their buyback prog?.....

Yes. And DNO too.