Member Info for Boyobach

..... but doesn't FCF require a revenue stream? There was little/no revenue in November & December but cash was still going out of the company to keep things running. I'm not an accountant but I assume FCF effectively stopped increasing at the end of October and possibly went into reverse from that point onward.

The grey shaded box in this chart https://invst.ly/p9xob is Q1 2020 - it is where G’s sp will be mapped out over the next three months, During the early part of this period cash flow should not only resume but arrears should be received. There will also be a T&O update and, as the quarter progresses, anticipation of 2019 final results in March. OP often firms up during this part of the year too.

Last year’s pre-results high on March 5th was one of only three or four fleeting visits to 230 in 2019. The results themselves were followed by a slump in price which was only rescued, temporarily, by a rising OP that peaked in late April. From then on it was a mediocre rollercoaster ride between 165 and 200 for most of the year until November.

The upper blue trend line marks the limit of G’s sp since OP fell below $80 in 2018. It rises through 242 to 247 during Q1. So, given the potential positives mentioned above, 245 would be a logical target if payments, updates and OP are all positive. However, November’s sharp reversal from 224 and the historic resistance at 230 represent potential obstacles, if not outright barriers, along the way. Here’s a closer look: https://invst.ly/p9xpz . The fact that the sp made only one intra-day visit to the next lower blue trend line is encouraging - perhaps the pattern is finally ready to shift upwards?

FCF was given as $121m for the first 9 months. With no revenue for the last two, despite ongoing outgoings I guess the FY number will be going down rather than increasing? If that's correct, I think my $130m could be more than a bit optimistic!

Boyo $130m
Bunks $158m
Hawkey $168m

Boyo $130m
Bunks $158M
Hawkey Substantial

50p average cost per share is the target for my planned residual holding (about 50% of current) at the end of 2020, Hawkey - it assumes trading follows a similar pattern to 2019 AND that I reduce my total holding from the current level. So it isn't as amazing as it sounds and a lot can go wrong in the meantime.

No - not since October.
Payments were running 2 months in arrears.

Hi Whitehat
As far as predictions go, I reckon G has a good chance of making 230-250 by the end of Q1.
I expect to still be holding G by 2021 but, because I will hopefully have reduced my cash exposure through trading (my average cost per share reduced to near 50p if things proceed similarly to 2019), I'll be able to stop trading and just take the dividends.

Re-posting the chart as it was a bit sloppy (0% line off the mark) https://invst.ly/p9bb4

Correct bunks.
G is performing poorly even whilst OP is good. although it is still outperforming the others here https://invst.ly/p9ayb in terms of sp since 9th October (immediately before it rallied to the high of 225)
Two negative things are working together: a general malaise in Oil Co performance (look at RDS) and the KRI specific payment issue. Bear in mind that GKP and DNO have been buying back, which makes their performance look better than it otherwise would have been.
The mist won't clear until the payment issue is resolved.

$68 Brent would ordinarily lead to a G trading range of 204-244 on 'average' to 'top' form .....

Yes - Best wishes to one and all!
With the Christmas Eve wrap-up shortly, 2019 appears to have indeed been 'as expected'- an average year for G.
I reckon Brent has averaged just under $64 whilst G has averaged 194, a ratio of just over 3x. On that average form, G should have been 200 today. In all probability the difference is almost entirely due to the payment issue which will hopefully get corrected during January.
Let’s hope for better than average - ‘transformational’ performance - next year.
Merry Christmas - and a more prosperous 2020 to you all.

It's production rather than rigs we need to be watching.
A cut in US rigs with inferior production rates doesn't mean that much. US production continues to rise - it's only the rate of increase that may may be levelling off.
G peaked prematurely (Taq Taq reserves collapsed) and at a bad time (OP fell and they didn't get paid). It's a tough comeback scenario.
Oil isn't the very long term prospect it was previously. Would the Saudis have sold off Aramco otherwise?
G is basically on its second chance as the long-term window of opportunity narrows.

That's from 2017 isn't it Hawkey?

Cheers Hawkey.
I did the speech bit in my reply to bunks...
Just to add that I'm as confident as you about the payments, hence I'll maintain my FC entry at 222 until it is either correct or bettered, which I expect to happen within the next five weeks (bearing in mind the next two are short ones and the payments may not due till around the 20th of the month. Merry Christmas!

Cheers bunks - a bitter-sweet win. At least I nailed the price rather than being wide of the mark and the default winner because I was the lowest punt.

I hope we will all do better with G next year - it has to come good sometime hasn’t it? I feel for folks who bought-in at around 211 (no names) and are awaiting their just rewards. When they prosper then so shall I and many others here. It’s a good incentive for them to pursue G’s success with vigour.

My next FC punt is based on where the sp should be given November’s market position just before the extreme spike - it was 212 at an Op of $63 that’s 3.36 x OP. I’ll assume an OP of $66 - so my punt for the next FC is a highly unlikely but highly plausible: 222p.

I hope everyone enjoys an excellent pre-Christmas weekend. ATB.

G's mini-rally fading unfortunately - 190 has previously acted as a support more than a resistance but G has been unable to secure it so far this week.
Last year, on the 20th, G was a bit stronger v OP at 2.9x. Of course, OP was a lot lot lower - about $12 less.
I'd intended to be minimum on G by this time of the year but the November firework and last week's nasty RNS frustrated my neat plans a bit. Just hoping that Q1 follows this year's pattern fairly closely - it should do if payments resume fully and on schedule. If they don't then it'll be a very different story. Hoping Wolfbag/Bunks get today's crown and G gets a foothold on 190, but not confident it will.

A good day for G - tracking the likes of RDSb and ahead of GKP - which we must remember has been supported by buybacks.
https://invst.ly/p5-fk
Let's not forget that from 8th November - ok that was a two day spike! - G is down 26p whilst Brent is up $4, equivalent to 12p in G sp - so G is down nearly 40+p in terms of market pricing for no practical reason other than a KRG payment delay and a week old 4p ex-div. Even if we assume the spike was overdone, G should be over 198p today (allowing for ex-div). Potentially, of course, G might be 125 +12 = 137p today, but let's not get too logical about the market!

Why would they be undercutting Oman prices....?
Partly transportation costs plus a discount for being unapproved by Baghdad .

DNO buybacks continuing at a pace, it seems :
https://invst.ly/p5rk0
but, tbf, there's more of a hill to climb:
https://invst.ly/p5rle
All of them except G lagging behind Brent since mid October - with G only falling behind Brent from early December.