Member Info for Boyobach

Brent has been trundling gently upwards for a couple of months now. The usual form is for a pop upwards at some point - maybe $69? - before dropping back....
https://invst.ly/p5r3-

It certainly isn't Hawkey. If you get two days like today then you are looking at 198p - although that would be a pretty exceptional gain at present even though G should have been in the 198-210 range if the early November rally had left its mark.
Sadly it didn't, so you and I may be outsiders - Wolfbag, Bunks and Broadland are in with more of a chance at this stage in my view. If it reaches Withoutt's 225 then I'll be too busy counting my unexpected trading profits to care. Ha!

'It was liken to me from going to weekly pay to monthly pay....'
Well the KRG haven't started selling via SOMO, which may have prompted a discontinuity. But they'd presumably need to make an adjustment at some point because of the timing of budget payments - IF (big IF) that comes about. Meanwhile they are still selling the stuff:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-18/china-buying-kurdish-oil-as-weak-margins-spur-cheap-crude-hunt
'' Tankers Atlantic Explorer, Minerva Vera and Guanabara loaded a combined 2.3 million barrels of Kurdish crude last month, according to ship-tracking data. The first vessel has already offloaded its cargo in China and the other two are set to later this month. Poliegos and Ottoman Nobility loaded shipments of Kurdish oil in December and are currently on their way to Asia.
The Kurdish oil headed to China was priced at $2 to $3 a barrel above global benchmark Brent, the traders said. That compares with similar-quality Oman crude that was priced at $2 a barrel or more than the grade from Kurdistan. "

G’s unexpectedly good day continued through the afternoon. I doubt that even Leem could find fault with G’s progress today - the last of the five days shown here:
https://invst.ly/p5f69
And. in context. since G started to gain traction in October: https://invst.ly/p5f81

Finally, versus 3x Brent and RDS recently: https://invst.ly/p5f8d

Not back to 3x Brent, much less 3.5x, but a welcome recovery since last week’s nadir.

G is surprisingly showing some welcome spark today https://invst.ly/p5bd3
In the last five days, OP has steadily increased whilst G & GKP have mostly remained flat. However, GKP and DNO have re-introduced share buybacks which presumably explains DNO’s advance despite the payments issue. G’s performance has therefore remained comparatively good, given the others are buying back.

Since OP crashed in 2014 from $100+ , it has peaked just once at $86 in the first boom era of US tight-oil production. G’s sp at that point was 248p, a ratio of 2.88x - better than today but far from stunning and lower than this year’s average 3.05x. Fast forward to today and G has performed slightly better than the other KRI companies and PMO in this chart but rather worse than the majors. All the KRI companies have slipped v OP itself. https://invst.ly/p5bk8 . If the payments issue gets resolved on schedule and OP steadies in the $65 region then G could be expected to get back on track for 210+ or better

Although it is tempting to blame G's collapse since the 10th Nov on leaks concerning the KRG payment issue, it is quite difficult to spot a possible and plausible connection until this month. G was destined to pause/pull back to some extent after the spike to 225 and we know that oil co's have generally been in retreat during the period - I've added RDS to this G v 3x Brent chart to illustrate https://invst.ly/p59y4 . The most obvious divergence doesn't really occur until the 9th December - just a couple of days before the RNS.

I agree with your comments Tartine -
Assume you meant ' doesn't ' here though:
......the management does really have much influence over what they and cant do. ?

A fair summary by Tartine in my view.
Success and 'transformation' for G invariably seem to be just beyond its grasp.

Not a 'no' bunks. 66 x 3.05 = 201.3, subtract 3.75 = 197.55. Do forgive me for rounding it up to 198.

Ex div discount would only account for the value of the dividend - 4p top whack Bunks.
G is 20p down on 'average performance' for the year and 50p down on top performance for the year based on current OP and the multiples (3.05x and 3.5x respectively)that it has achieved during 2019. Today's price is about as dismal as it gets.

With LCO knocking on the $66 door (OANDA about $0.5 ahead of it), G should be comfortably at 198p today
The impact of KRG shenanigans on the sp is not hard to evaluate.

DNO appears to have issued two buy back notices, hence the price resilience:
Oslo, 16 December 2019 - DNO ASA, the Norwegian oil and gas operator, has today purchased 1,200,000 own shares at an average price of NOK 10.7412 per share.
Oslo, 17 December 2019 - DNO ASA, the Norwegian oil and gas operator, has today purchased 1,500,000 own shares at an average price of NOK 11.0491 per share.
Following this [last] transaction, DNO holds 88,700,000 own shares.

Yes Whitehat - as soon as G starts to run faster it invariably encounters banana skins. And people wonder why the market supposedly undervalues it.
Plainly the sp is now totally becalmed and drifting - the stiff breeze of strong revenue is not driving it anywhere for the moment.
We may as well all switch off till mid January - the 16th to be precise. At that point 'no news' and lack of credible explanation will see it tank for sure.

GKP doing circa 2% better .....
They have been buying back every day since their buyback announcement - so comparisons with GKP not especially useful at the moment. Presumably they pre-planned the buybacks to commence when they announced the payment delay - it would be only logical to do so.
For the time being G is pumping oil but receiving no revenue - so much for cash accumulation for value accretive investment. What are the odds that this will get tacked onto the Receivables deal?

You tell me, Leem.
You highlight a good point. Since early November OP has been generally rising but Oil Co's have been falling.
Here's Brent, RDS, BP, G, FTSE100 and USD/£
https://invst.ly/p4gik

….. and the other majors over the next few weeks:
G performed like a rocket from the 10th October up to the 7th of November,
https://invst.ly/p4dlv
then events appear to have conspired against it - although OP was quite obviously NOT a factor, as the comparison chart clearly shows.

It would be easy to blame (and I do to some extent) leaks about the lack of KRG payments but RDS also fell during this period (BP fell similarly btw). Now we appear to be entering a kind of ‘cease-fire’ in the Sino-US trade dispute, which could well last until Trump is re-elected - this should at the very least underpin OP through the 2020 peak demand part of the cycle. If G has an opportunity to prosper then we must surely be heading into it - and so are the majors like RDS. G does not need doubts about KRG payments or other negatives right now - timing is everything and if RDS starts to move positive whilst G becomes weaker (G is already down to just 2.75x Brent LCO) then the wisdom of being invested in a KRI driller could become a bit questionable.

Sorry Hawkey - I should have realised who DD was.
Regarding the missed payments - which will hang like a cloud over G's parade until they are fully paid - as others have hinted, the sp does seem to have been influenced by the postponed payments before they were officially declared. I'm not so much referring to the pull back from 8th November as the collapse below 195 after the 27th. All pretty unsatisfactory and undoubtedly why G is, again, nearly at it's lowest v Brent this year. I am most certainly not cheerful at the mo and joining Leem in the whinger's corner.

Hawkey - 'Doctor Doom' is not a fair epithet re Foodforthought- two months missed payments at this point in the year represents 10 to 15% of annual cash revenue off the 2019 FY results. It's not good and is a valid reason to be less than cheerful.
In January we are now 'hoping for', rather than 'confident about', a total of three monthly payments: the missing two plus the one that will actually fall due. Last time we experienced these shenanigans with the KRG it all got a bit misty, lost track of the months and and ultimately ended up with something called the 'over-ride payments'.

To say that 'The slightly delayed payment by literally a number of week makes no difference to anything or anyone at all except us excited small shareholders.' assumes that this will all be rectified by the time the FY gets published.

Time, rather than the PR department at G, will tell.

"The new agreement comes into place in January and results in ..... blah blah blah....'
When did a KRG- ICG annual budget ever get implemented since Genel (The Vallares RTO special edition) was launched by Tony and Guys ?
Don't kid yourselves that this budget will be any different. I used to get excited about these - total waste of time.
G is doin' alright and so (due to some impenetrable tribal affiliations and local fiefdoms that no western observer understands) is the KRG. Baghdad is, frankly, not doin' alright.
That's why the sp is sub 250p.
ISIL is not defeated btw, Hawkey - so please knock it off the top of your list and put more recent/important stuff there. ISIS is busy morphing into the re-branded version of the Jihadi Franchise that will erupt onto our news screens with some atrocity when it is ready to do so.
Just chillax, enjoy Christmas, bank G's divis and trade it according to the charts that some sad person keeps putting under your nose to make it easy.
I'm currently having my best year ever with G - I wonder why?
https://invst.ly/p3w1p

Boyo 188
Wolfbag 190
broadland 196
Hawkey 200