Member Info for Boyobach

My divi was in promptly yesterday morning - I use ii .

Yes H. Even the ones that hit Al Asad may not have been as 'accurate' in the normal sense of the word as the media are making out. I don't buy the line that Iran 'planned to miss', folks have been watching too many old Clint Eastwood movies. Of 17 missiles supposedly heading to that target, photographs show 5 damaged buildings. Some pundits have pointed out that a couple are 'dead centre' - but pure chance would dictate that if you chuck enough stuff you'll get some on target. On that basis I could be pretty good at darts. It is also unclear how many 'cluster' warheads (up to 10 ?) were on each missile as claimed by IRGC . (That would be up to 170 impacts at Al Asad - really?) and to what extent they were individually steerable. The inaccuracy (in conventional terms) of ballistic missiles is perhaps one reason why people like to fit them with chemical/biological and nuclear warheads because accuracy doesn't matter as much as with explosives. It's all posturing, propaganda and nonsense.

into missiles...
Did anyone happen to notice what the five Iranian missiles aimed at the US base in Erbil actually hit?
The US base is near Harir - about 25 miles NE of Erbil.
One apparently landed near Bardarash, about 40 miles away
Two landed near Saidan - closer to Erbil itself than the air base
Maybe you are safer if they are trying to hit you?
This was from the beeb's report (spelling of place names varies):
The Iraqi military said Iran fired five missiles towards Irbil air base, in the northern Kurdistan region. It did not say how many hit the base, but state TV reported that two missiles landed in the village of Sidan, 16km (10 miles) north-west of the city of Irbil, and that a third missile came down in the Bardah Rashsh area, about 47km north-west of Irbil.

In the long-term view, G is logically due a visit to the darker upper trend line here https://invst.ly/pfv76 during this quarter. This line is not exactly parallel with the others - very slightly flatter in fact. Unsurprisingly, they all closely match the trend in OP.

The stimuli for this apparently cyclical behaviour seems to be the FY results and accompanying statement, which last year generated expectations which subsequently fizzled out, together with the seasonal strengthening in OP which usually firms up during spring. If I overlay OP you can see how this worked last year: https://invst.ly/pfv6n . I must point out that G is, this year, starting from a weaker position v OP following the recent collapse from 225 and the payments malarky.

Will G stir similar enthusiasm this time around and will it last? The cash position should undoubtedly be better than last year and maybe Bina Bawi is now closer to fruition. Sarta too will soon be producing, who knows what Qara Dagh will reveal and, not to forget, the progressive dividend policy. Hawkey’s list is much more comprehensive of course.

I added yesterday on the basis of the price. It was coincidental that the divi was paid on the same day and it didn't cover the cost as it was only worth around 2.28% - I increased my holding by 4%.

Yes indeed bunks!
We ended the day on a dragonfly doji at 175 after four consecutive days of falling. There's also a gap to fill at 178. These would normally be good signs. However, OP has fallen about $1 since the close. Although G didn't chase OP upwards after Friday, we can't be sure that G will remain neutral to the fall - tomorrow should tell. Fingers crossed - but I'm glad I was a buyer today than a seller.

With DNO still buying back at the lowest possible sp, they'd be a bit daft to declare payments until they absolutely have to. I daresay that G would respect that - why wouldn't they? Just saying.

Klassic: Bluebirds v Swans? Now that does sound like war. I'll stick to rugger.

Hi Whitehat - I'm really not as concerned as you but also not entirely complacent.

I happen to think it's been a surprisingly good day if you were looking to trade G. CoV and others, including me, could well make a swift few quid after today’s low. Yes, it might drop further but at only 2.6x OP (the cheapest ratio in over twelve months) we almost can’t lose now that G’s 2 month payment backlog has been halved and there’s at least one more payment likely in January. The RNS dropped the heaviest hint possible on that score.

Iran has made its symbolic response. The hoi polloi in most nations demand such of their leaders but swiftness is of particular importance to save face in certain cultures. They will, of course, do other stuff but they prefer most of their activities to be non-attributable - which does not provide the requisite national statement of outrage. That box has now been ticked.

OP is ‘back to normal’ - or heading that way. It may be disappointing but $64 Brent is the current average: anything above seems to be a bonus and somewhat temporary as it appears to encourage over-production in the US. $64 is sufficient for G to reach 230p on a very good day.

If G drops to RBC’s target of 160 I think it could be be the first time they’ve ever been right about G - and I’ll be topping up some more.

Take a deep breath and see what the 16th brings - we could all be pleasantly surprised (that's worrying - I'm starting to sound like Hawkey)

Over $5 drop in Brent in a day..... that would have been worth 15p off G if it was tracking OP at average ratios, which it hasn't been recently.
https://invst.ly/pfhzn
Still, it'll be interesting to see how tomorrow pans out - here's the last five days:
https://invst.ly/pfi1c
In essence G should remain where it is because OP is back where it was last week.

Keep going JL!

It could be worse - we could be in DNO. Their buybacks aren't having much impact are they?
Here are the 3 Kurdy Amigos v Brent, RDS, PMO and Chevron (I've replaced BP with the latter) - all since Oil peaked at $86 (remember that?)
https://invst.ly/pfhp8

.... today about 2m shares:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/01/08/1967974/0/en/DNO-ASA-Mandatory-Notification-of-Trade.html

Ha! I'd forgotten to check for EIA news until your post, Jack. So thanks to you.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Falls-Further-On-Bearish-Inventory-Data.html

Crude oil prices fell further after the Energy Information Administration reported a crude oil inventory build of 1.2 million barrels for the first week of the new year.

'The Company will update on any further payments in the trading and operations update scheduled for 16 January.'

Company PR speak which translates to: 'FFS calm down, stop hypothesising , don't expect RNS's every day, you'll get an update mid month - just like we said'

Excellent COV. Good luck.
I really don't expect it to close below that penultimate trend - 174
https://invst.ly/pff4t
I don't know why all the fuss today. The downgrade? The missile attacks? The positive RNS?
In reality G is now only one month behind in payments rather than two and OP remains well above 2019 average. 2019 FY FCF figures may be down on expectations but that will simply move into this year's numbers.

The sp hit a top-up trigger point for me today and the chart is looking good for a potential 'bottom'
The price has tested below the penultimate bottom trend line but quickly recovered to above it. Volume looks good for that move back up and there's a gap to fill.
https://invst.ly/pfeu8

We have no idea how much research/preparation went into the downgrade. All we do know is that G's sp is in its fifth straight day of losses for entirely understandable but premature reasons. To issue a downgrade at such a time, with the revised target quite near at hand is hardly surprising and more likely to be self-fulfilling. 160 is only just below today's price and the bottom trend - so anyone watching G would already be thinking about that price range IF payments are less than guidance. In many respects the downgrade seems to be too late to be of any real use or interest.
G currently may be more likely to go down than up - tonight's closing price will be indicative - but its cash position is actually better today than yesterday and there is no direct threat to the company because of the geopolitical situation: Neither Iraq nor the KRI are in dispute with Iran or the US and IS has other fish to fry should they choose to do so. Iran also seems to be signalling that it has done as much as it intends to in terms of symbolic retaliation.

Hardly rocket science is it?
https://invst.ly/pfd1r