Member Info for Boyobach

January would be good timing for receipt of overdue payments (in addition to the normal payment due that month) and any other positive news as it would fit nicely with the cyclic nature of G’s sp:
https://invst.ly/p3bre
It might also be of interest, to those who find patterns of behaviour useful, to note that G has recently never exceeded 38p above 3xOP (circled). That would put G at 233 maximum at $65 Brent, which would also fit the chart.

With ex-div out of the way, G needs to start chasing Brent's green line again, which marks 3x OP and G's 'average' level. We are about 10p down currently. Progress can only start to be measured once G is above that line.
https://invst.ly/p2udg

Yes Hydrogen
&
Yes Ocelot
Actually, I suspect the RNS didn't tilt the sp too much: look at GKP in contrast, down about 1% more than G and not an ex-div day for them
https://invst.ly/p2k7a
As Ocelot says, there are positive ways of reporting this in the FY results - especially if the issue is fully resolved before March
As Hydrogen seems to hint - G does keep giving, but perhaps not in the way a conventional long-term holder would like. Leem seems to have got it.

171 is lower than I'd anticipated - so that would not be good with OP at $64.
Back up to 177 is good. Let's hope 174 marks the bottom and it doesn't hover around the low 170's for too long

I presume this will dent the anticipated FY numbers. Unfortunate timing. I guess that is why they issued an RNS - ordinarily they don't report on payments.

Today's sp pretty much according to expectations chartwise:
https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_6ee4acc02eda0fa0a37fa13504f6348d.png
Bought some more.

Well Bunks no Chrimbo Party? Now I'm seriously depressed! And Hawkey thinks I've only got a 50:50 chance of being right about the direction of this submarine we are currently aboard....
OP down, crude build according to the EIA, ex-d discount, c'mon H - being cheerful is one thing but dealing with reality in a measured way is what actually keeps us going. The last five days have not been brilliant:
https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_0fd313f951c17bfd4f93d4d9e8381ea2.png
And the last two months looks flattering to G relative to the others at first - until you notice how OP has risen:
https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_89bf7740e517c1afeb344cfa0857c6a4.png
My approach: Take the divi earned today and look for a possible bargain tomorrow....

So with G just 180 at the open, today’s candle bearing an upward wick despite the intraday rise, the next trend line (blue) below at 175 and ex div on Thursday; it isn’t rocket science to work out the likely direction from here in the absence of some unforeseen and uplifting factor. Trend lines are just that, of course - they are simply a line that the price historically gravitates towards before either reversing direction or punching through. Hence the reason they appear to exert a certain gravitational pull.
https://invst.ly/o-u5b

With that in mind, and seeking some solace, it’s worth remembering that significant low points for Bent often occur in December/January as marked here: https://invst.ly/o-mj7 . However, despite the continuing growth in US shale production, the underlying trend in OP since Jan 2016 remains upward - the lowest lows being progressively higher by about $3 per year. As US shale growth slows and global demand continues to increase, there is every reason to suppose that this trend will either continue or improve. Q1 historically sees an uplift in G’s performance, especially if there’s a positive Trading and Ops Update ( The next is on 16th January).

Interesting to see that GKP have announced their further buyback programme today - shares up about 6% at present.

May 23rd was a bad day for oil cos in general, Hawkey, and as luck would have it, was also ex-div day for G.
It was possibly the worst day for smaller oil cos during Brent's fall from $74 to $60, although RDS and BP didn't feel the pain till the end of July.
On the day, G's sp fell by just over 20p ....... GKP fell by 25p..... PMO fell about 13p (a larger percentage than G)
Thursday's interim shouldn't have much effect on the price - a temporary 3 or 4p hit - but sometimes ex div can trigger a sell-off.

That's a very nice presentation. Full of 'Reasons to be Cheerful' for me.

Yes TommyG - interesting to see if they do.
The price was a lot weaker in real terms when they started the buybacks in June though - only around 2.7x OP at that stage. That would be equivalent to an sp of around 172p today - which I guess we could see ex-div.
You can see the effect of the initial buy-back period v OP circled here:
https://invst.ly/o-6lw

Views?
I'll be looking to buy if it gets hammered at ex-div, bunks.
3.8p is neither here nor there in the long term is it? so no point selling imv - even though the 170's do look possible. Ultimately it will see 220+ as it routinely does:
My 'go-to' chart for a reality check on G is always this comparison since OP was $86 - it gives me a realistic view of how G is performing relative to benchmark RDS, OP and peers GKP and DNO. It is just as dismal for the others right now...
https://invst.ly/o-6c7

186 at $64 Brent is very poor for G - especially with a 3.8p div for qualifying holders and ex-div approaching on the 12th.
Doesn't get much more disappointing than this.

Yes Hawkey - well 4% anyway - should be 199+ on that basis, which would put it back to 3.1x OP.

Withoutt 190
Broadland 193
Boyo 195
Mayor Bunks 198
Hawkey 200
Wolfbag 204
PostieRemy 207
ocelot 210
FlyingFarmer 220

Just a reminder that OP rose by 6% last week, the £ was 2% up against the $ whilst G and DNO finished the week level, GKP and RDSb down around 1%
https://invst.ly/ozwa1
G is now below 3xBrent again: https://invst.ly/ozwbn so pretty much back to average performance for the year
and firmly below the blue dash trend line and resistance. It has been known to recover from this kind of level to the upper dashed blue line on 2 out of five occasions as circled here https://invst.ly/ozwed .
If OP holds then who knows? I'm not expecting anything spectacular this side of the NY and possibly not until well into Q1.

With OP (LCO) approaching $65, G should be 200 - Oh! who's entry is that?

Not us or G, Hawkey, - it's the market

Yes - oil certainly lifting and G fastest off the blocks here https://invst.ly/oytu0

Chillax Hawkey -
G is being repaid outstanding amounts, accrued during the ISIS conflict and the withholding of ICG budget, by the Receivables Agreement Settlement (RSA), which I believe runs to July 2022. My understanding is that this is a legally binding agreement.
As a G holder I expect this to be honoured and G's reporting has given me no reason to doubt this. I have no knowledge of (or interest in) GKP's arrangements.