Member Info for Boyobach

Hawkey - don't forget that the OP market operates over more hours than the stock market, so you can't just take percentage readings (which may be based on yesterday's close or today's open at totally different times for the different markets) and expect them to tally.
Here's the last 24 hours for Bent v G showing quite good correlation during trading hours:
https://invst.ly/prhyq
That said, there hasn't been a tight correlation between G and Brent for a couple of months - G tending to get stronger, which is a good thing: https://invst.ly/pri3y
Also there's an elastic effect - whilst OP drops G is currently resisting the downward pressure - that's a good thing too - but it also means that the price doesn't respond to a reverse in OP ie it is ironing out the OP variations rather better currently than when it was weaker.

So do you remember how G surged ahead of the others from Oct 10th onwards and then apparently slumped? I thought it would be useful to revisit that particular chart up to today:
https://invst.ly/pr22k

Interesting isn’t it?

G still on top. Why?
G:Brent today = 3.4x (the max in two years is about 3.8x, 3.4x is robust)
GKP and DNO buying-back meanwhile but seeing no real benefit in relative terms.
RDS and Chevron both having a dreadful time. Chevron with biggest loss in a decade:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Jim-Cramer-Fossil-Fuels-Are-Done.html

G holding up well on the long-term comparison from peak OP $86: https://invst.ly/pr2fp

I'm not sure why it is but I'm certainly not complaining.

And something of a rebound for the KRI oil co's in this comparison:
https://invst.ly/pqtk2
Chevron (NY) yet to start trading today, of course.
G looking good.

At least this morning we see Brent 's fall pausing at the significant trend line here: https://invst.ly/pqsc4
It is significant because for over 3.5 years it has marked the lowest lows for Brent (LCO) . Immediately prior to that we had the relatively brief OP fall to sub $30 in Jan 2016. The shaded track represents the apparent 'normal' range established by OPEC - the price does exceed it from time to time but invariably gravitates back to it.

Thanks for the response, Hawkey and comments, Tartine.

We seems to be of a similar view: reluctantly accepting that G's gas assets are unlikely to live up to the years of hype.

Let's hope the Chevron fields fill the void.

For a number of reasons I'm not sure that gaps work the same way with commodities, Jack, but either way, if it drops below tonight's close then it's in mid-air till it finds some support and $50 looks like the next ledge for it to cling to.

Yes bunks, it's not pretty. When LCO gets to $50.5 (OANDA around $51) we will be more certainly on the brink of misery - that's Dec 2018's low.
https://invst.ly/pqk7w
But let's get coronavirus in perspective: if it isn't contained soon then we could have more important worries than our G shares and, if it is contained there'll be a real surge in activity in China and/or elsewhere, to catch-up. At least we are not invested in Chesapeake or some other Shale money pit.
I think I heard infections are doubling every five days? That exponential type curve isn't good and it could take a while to bring it under control.

Hi Hawkey - I love your RTBC list, although the ISIL thing always bugs me - for a variety of reasons - but the rest is mostly reasonable and current (major institutions? at least Woodward not in there -that might have been kiss of death) .
So today I'm drawn to this item on your list : DANA Gas selling Egypt, going all in KRG.
Why is that good for G? They got a good gas deal before G - probably in part settlement for being messed about - but is G about to sell out to Dana and maybe under pressure to do so at a knock-down price?
I have mixed feelings about these 'jewel in the crown' gas assets that have hooked G investors for far too long with no prospect, even now, of a tangible (cash) benefit within nine years of G's launch in autumn 2011. My problems with them are:
1) They are in the KRI and, looking back at nine years of it, G seriously needs to diversify.
2) They might be a game changer - but that line is now about as thin as a cheap condom.
Dana is on your RTBC list - why?

I do concur with NelsonThe Dog's comment, which I just read...

Meanwhile, there’s a lot of jitters - not quite panic - in the financial media regarding OP and the effects of the coronavirus (I had no idea that drinking a retro Welsh fizzy pop could be so risky). But in reality, so far at least, the fall in OP hasn’t really been any steeper than normal (although reports imply otherwise). The orange falling lines here https://invst.ly/pqedd are all mutually parallel and the slope is typical of OP in retreat. There’s an equally characteristic rising slope which is somewhat less steep - OP tends to fall rather faster than it rises, which is not unusual as far as the market is concerned.

Although the rate of fall is perhaps not unusual - it will be the depth of it that counts,of course.

This weekend saw the monthly contract roll-over for LCO - moving from March to April so that did cause a discontinuity for those watching it - closing prices for Brent LCO moved from maybe $1 above XBR/OANDA to maybe $1 below https://invst.ly/pqef4 .The purple line here is XBR (OANDA is usually similar). It’s a technicality that can be a little unnerving. The fact is that the Aprill contract had been dropping since Jan 6th with a mild reprieve mid month.

The long term comparison chart I use to tell me how G is really doing relative to OP and peers remains healthy but unexciting: https://invst.ly/pqejw remembering that G and DNO have been buying back and RDS has had a very bumpy time of late, with a generally poor press and some comments about having only about 8 years worth of resources. G is only outperformed, on this basis and within this group, by Chevron - which I believe has also declared some eye watering Shale patch write downs.

Given that it’s not a good time for Oil, G doesn’t seem to be suffering any worse than the others.

Cheers Ocelot - I'm genuinely optimistic given G's recent performance but realise there could be a dip - due primarily to OP - before things get better. It's a pity the sp fell away from 190, one does wonder if the RNS had arrived a day earlier whether it might have held. It's relatively unusual for the sp to turn back up when it's mid trend but it'll be a real positive sign if it does.
ATB.

Boyo 178

Cheers Hawkey.

I'm trying to choose between words of wisdom and words of encouragement - tough at the moment to find words that do both!

Today's RNS made a positive difference to my strategy - I sold a few yesterday on the basis that I'd buy back when, as seemed inevitable prior to the RNS, the price dropped to 176 or below. The RNS reduced that likelihood for me - even though the chart remains very persuasive about the 170's. So I bought back today at marginal profit but will still add at 175/6 depending how OP goes. G's performance has been quite excellent under difficult circumstances this month.

Well your wish for a good Friday has been answered with the RNS, Hawkey.

You are right about not investing essential cash on risky ventures - I just don't think hard cash should generally be managed on the basis of faith alone. Today the company fixed issue that for me.

The price action over the last three days has all the hallmarks of continuing down, whether the excellent RNS can turn that around remains to be seen. It's certainly made me consider the possibility of repurchasing the small tranche I sold off.

The RNS is very welcome because of its clarity - removes all of the ambiguity about whether the 'normal' delay from invoicing would be restored. It also falls within January. It would have been better had the glitch not occurred but today's news does put things back on track. No similar RNS over at GKP yet - perhaps later today. Nothing from DNO either - but that's not unusual.

Faith does not pay the bills Hawkey.
Until today G hadn’t closed below 190 in a fortnight but had been clinging on against the odds - much of which was market and OP driven whilst some was probably due to KRG payment issues and company communication of same. In any case, G investors didn't and don't need a chart to indicate the likely immediate direction of travel:
https://invst.ly/pp5gq

Timeframe is important Jack. From yesterday's market close Brent is down $1.5, G is down 2.3p

Regarding RDS - it may not be time to switch just yet as it may have further to go and G seems to be holding up:
https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stockbeat-shell-hits-the-buyback-brakes-after-big-shale-writedown-2041252
From a psychological pov, I much prefer to see G climbing on the back of a firm OP and regular payments (with no doubts and shenanigans) than to see it suspended in mid air as the OP falls away. It strikes me that it is defying gravity at present.

Ouch! Is RDSb starting to look a better place for my cash than G?
https://invst.ly/porvb
There are lots of bargains out there - can G stay at 190+, especially with the payments problem persisting?
Historically it is about 20p too high.

Brent and WTI are apparently being driven in opposite directions following yesterday’s weekly EIA report showing the biggest US inventory build since November. The differential between the two benchmarks has widened to about $6.5:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-boosted-by-fall-in-inventories-talk-of-extended-opec-cuts-2020-01-29

Brent is perched on an interesting trend line - the broken orange diagonal here:
https://invst.ly/pom3a

It’s interesting because it was established by the lows of January 2016 and December 2018, and Brent therefore hasn’t gone below it in four years - here’s a wider view: https://invst.ly/pom40

Unfortunately, Brent has recently been testing down rather than up. So, if it does break lower, let’s hope the next red trend below marks the worst case scenario because there’s a long drop between $54 and $43 (the lowest red trend). Not to forget that sub $30 was seen in Jan 2016.

Indeed Klassic. two days to the end of January and one payment received out of at least two expected in the month.
What would the market reaction be if a UK based company calmly announced a 2 month shortfall, say 15%, in annual revenue - which is what effectively happened to G in 2019 with increasing doubt as to whether that amount will be added back within 2020's accounts.
Also, if - as one might begin to suspect - the KRG have unilaterally extended their payment terms to 4.5 months in arrears rather than 2.5, then this will presumably knock on to Sarta, Qara Dagh, Bina et al.
G have until the end of Q1 to spell out exactly what is going on here, after months of obfuscation.
Unfortunately, GKP RNS's alone cannot be relied upon - providing just an indication. However, the media tends to follow up - which is basically how information about the others has surfaced in the past.