Member Info for Boyobach

Quite correct Hasiba - pointless to expect too much just at the moment.

Cheers Hawkey.
Regrettably, if apply any wisdom I cannot go for a higher punt for next week. However, I'm sure that once COV-19 is off the news we will see a resumption of global production and a consequential increase in OP to $63+.
Until then, I'm with Tartine regarding the likely lack of fireworks in G's sp, which looks range bound between 175 and 195.
Not very cheerful, I know, but reasonably optimistic. GLA!

Boyo 185

Leem made a poignant comment yesterday: ‘I still don’t know what constitutes a breakout here.’

Ordinarily it’s simple enough - an sp pushing up past a key resistance or trend to the next level. The problem with G is that it has effectively been in retreat for eighteen months, so any immediate breakout that happens below 230 is simply reclaiming ground that has recently been lost and doesn’t represent a significant advance. The nearest thing we’ve seen to a breakout recently was the short lived October/November push past 210. Anyone buying on that signal must have been mightily disappointed.

Today I imagine that some people would rate a price over 200p as something of a breakout, yet it’s well short of the 230 breakout we were looking for a year ago.
https://invst.ly/pxi8h

Tartine - I generally agree with your assessment - especially 'no fireworks' - although I'm perhaps slightly more optimistic on a few points:
I think the new appointments should have an effect - if they are to have any - within six months.
On Bina Bawi preparations, I think Bill is shrewd enough to have been certain that the money was well spent. So I do expect news during Q1.
On dividend, I’m not particularly concerned and don’t necessarily expect to see an increase provided that the company is pursuing realistic and achievable growth.
Sarta must bring some upside - and should be first in terms of production boost.
Qara Dagh - seems highly speculative - I doubt that it’s priced-in to the sp.

I also think JL’s observation that: ‘.... if you think G is going to be a bagger from here you will have a protracted wait imo,’
was utterly correct.

So are you feeling lucky?

I appreciated JL’s first post in this thread today - a good piece especially for those of us who might dismiss some of the points too readily.

Yesterday Cashless suggested, on the basis of my ‘depressing’ posts that I’m a de-ramper. He has a point - I’m not given to being particularly optimistic.
Today there is no doubt that the sp has surged - nearly hitting 185 before dropping back to just under 182 - last five days here: https://invst.ly/px67s
Actually Hawkey it was a good day if you compare us to RDS or Chevron - the GvOP ratio shifted up a bit too.

So, with my ill-fitting optimistic hat and rose tinted specs on, what is the best I think we can expect? Well, as I’ve said previously, the March statement seems to historically mark an annual high point, if not the start of a more sustained rally. Let’s assume the model is this: a rapid rise from today towards March 16th (the day prior to results). How rapid is rapid? Well October/November gave us a real example so let’s apply it from today, the red parallel lines:
https://invst.ly/px6b9

As you can see, by March 16th (the day before results) 220p would be possible but quite a challenge. Of course, the sp might rocket faster - this is Mr Negativity speaking. Alternatively….. anything over 200 would be good in my view, with 210 quite exceptional

That pesky virus Jester - seems to have jumped from birds to humans to economies. Ha!
It has even been found to have infected an apple.
An understandable mutation.....
Fewer people working or travelling, fewer goods produced or transported, shortages of parts supplied by China, production slowing globally = less oil needed.

Article: 'If Coronavirus Is Pressuring China's Economy, Why Are Oil Prices Rising?'
https://uk.investing.com/analysis/if-coronavirus-is-pressuring-chinas-economy-why-are-oil-prices-rising-200438234

Not a day for de-ramping. The KRI producers chasing OP at last, whilst the majors remain flat. Last five days:
https://invst.ly/px03g

GKP and DNO on steroids this morning for no obvious reason other than they have both lagged the rally in OP, like G. Maybe G will follow later? https://invst.ly/pwyqj

Cheers Leem. However, although I don't intend to de-ramp, I guess my posts can be quite negative at times because they try to reflect the reality of the sp. During December I was anticipating that the sp would float up to 225 as the March results approached but I can't help the fact that, in response to global events, the sp has dropped back to October's levels at a comparable OP. Hopefully things will perk up once all the payment issues are fully sorted and assuming the statement on March 17th is positive.

So with OP at nominally $59 and G in the 175 to 180 zone, we are back to October as far as G sp v the price of oil is concerned, as arrow marked here: https://invst.ly/pwlpn

175 obviously represents the most recent support level with the latest low pushing the lowest blue trend line downwards a touch (and all its parallels likewise). Nevertheless, the trend has remained solid - requiring a tweak but withstanding significant pressure as OP fell to near $53.

Brent continues to firm up: https://invst.ly/pwm0g - until the EIA weekly report in an hour or so….

No different to the rest really, Leem
https://invst.ly/pwgpc
Brent has risen over 4% in the last four days and these oil co's (except Chevron) have dropped about 4%

Brent had seen six days of increases in price up to yesterday and is $1 up since yesterday's LSE close.
https://invst.ly/pwgit

Is this the greatest buy-in price ever ??? - No. That was about 55p nearly three years ago.
G was bound to be sucked down to the trend line: https://invst.ly/pwayk A trading opportunity if you are convinced this represents a baseline.
G isn't the only oil co heading in the opposite direction to OP and the G:Brent ratio is also heading back towards 3x.
Here's the last five days of the gang of five: https://invst.ly/pwb2a G is the worst performer over this particular period but over the longer term (specifically from 10th October) has held its own: https://invst.ly/pwb4u

As I often point out, G is no worse and no better than GKP and RDS over 16 months. It is performing better than DNO and is on a par with the likes of PMO: https://invst.ly/pvw9d
In other words it is average: not especially good nor especially bad.
If getting paid is an issue then it isn't a big one as far as I can see - although the sp was performing rather better than the others prior to the announcement of delays back in November, so I'm hoping that 'normalisation' may give G some boost

This could turn out to be the fifth straight day of OP gains. The growth being a bit greater than characteristic (blue trend channel) rather than spectacular. At this price previously, on 30/1, G was around 187.
https://invst.ly/pvnwh

Not forgetting that payment for October production was also due in January, of course, and is currently overdue. Business is not quite back to normal yet.

Thanks for the FC congratulations for last week though, as ever, predicting the lowest of low prices is the bitterest of bitter-sweet successes, especially as OP had been rallying strongly for four days - somewhat faster than its characteristic rate (the blue trend here):
https://invst.ly/pvaph

G is not alone amongst the oil co’s in falling back whilst OP has strengthened, the G:Brent ratio falling back to just 3.14x on Friday after peaking at more than 3.4x just a couple of days earlier.
So guessing next week’s FC price is as difficult as ever because even if OP continues upwards there’s no guarantee that G will follow at its recent ratio to OP. My most optimistic guess for OP next week is $59 and I suspect that G will linger in the 180’s, hence my 188 punt (just under 3.2x) .
Let's hope for payment news and something of a rally as we head towards the FY results and report in March.

Boyo 188
broadland192
Hawkey 194
Withoutt 198