Member Info for Boyobach

Another week and another win for G - just ahead of GKP over the week:
https://invst.ly/renj7
RDS dropped sharply with the US market on Thursday, along with Chevron which reported today - both majors bottom of my table for this week with DNO fairing little better.
G also the leader since March 1st: https://invst.ly/renl9

Correct Hasiba - in the end it is the price you can obtain v the price you paid that counts.

Well that did go as suggested:
https://invst.ly/refde
Hopefully it won't go right down to the lower blue - as it is set quite loosely - and stay above $41.

Well Leem, the UT is the outcome of the after-hours SETS auction and -depending on orders placed via that system - may not be as close to prices quoted leading up to 16.30 as we both might have previously expected. In terms of closing prices, G has now eased back over three successive days. It may also have been influenced by, or have something in common with, GKP (blue here): https://invst.ly/re6z6 , in which case it may well run out of steam in coming days unless there is something more specific driving it. Either way, I think we'll soon see.

Yes Leem - but what?
Volumes are back to average levels so there's no apparent accumulation activity unless it's being very carefully managed.
If it's simply speculative in nature then it's potentially a bubble that could pop any time.
To be fair to G, we shouldn't be expecting much progress on projects demanding cap-ex right now and payment normalisation is a long way off, so hard to find a plausible reason for the recent rally apart from consolidation of the rise in early June into the 137 - 150 range.

G’s recent strength is not a figment of imagination and has already been more than just a two or three day spike. To demonstrate, here’s a daily chart of G v Chevron (blue) - the top oil performer in my long term comparison group since oil peaked at $86:
https://invst.ly/re4uq
By any measure, be it OP, FTSE100 or peer group, G seems to be defying gravity and today has been as good an example as any in that regard.
Here’s another view since March 1st and the COVID driven collapse:
https://invst.ly/re4ch
We’ve seen it do this before, of course, and, with the H1 statement less than a month off, it’s bound to lead to some speculation about what that might reveal.
But, in the meantime, it is difficult to see what has sparked the recent enthusiasm.

O/T CWR needs a close watch, Rangor.
I've traded it and sold my final tranche today. Very pleased, even if it continues to rocket - although things very very rarely go in a straight line. I'd be progressively tempted back in at any level that doesn't erode my gains to date - and the chart gives a range of possibilities at support and trend levels. I had been anticipating adding near the lower green around 530 but looks like it might not drop below the 580 support. https://invst.ly/re3k-
Bizarre market currently though - CWR and G have been somewhat against the market - I guess both may drop if the wider market strengthens.

Brent’s recovery trajectory (red) slackened off during early June (green) and seemed destined to perhaps flatten into the blue here:
https://invst.ly/re06w
It has levelled out at $43 over recent days, so a pause in direct progress seems possible, along with a potential pull back if it moves sideways below the green line.

Here's the article link hens mentioned re G. It's worth a read because it gives some political context and includes this :
[Alessandro Piccoli, technical research principal at IHS Markit] notes there will be an onshore well drilled by Genel Energy in 2021, which he says “will be interesting to follow” because it is said that plays in this basin are similar to a northern Yemeni basin that has proved prolific.
https://www.offshore-technology.com/features/sizing-up-somalia-a-new-offshore-oil-frontier-in-the-making/
If this works, hens, then I guess your link may have got corrupted or was via another site

We often wait with baited breath for the updates but they turn out to be a bit of a damp squib, Tartine. So hopefully you and I will get a buy-back opportunity (it's not guaranteed of course).
I happen to think that the sp is more likely to soften before it makes a serious attack on 152 based on some news regarding Bina Bawi or the other non-producing assets and/or an extra $1 or two on OP.
Looking at the prevailing trend, G could easily land anywhere between 125 and 158 over the next couple of weeks https://invst.ly/rdrme I have a speculative limit 'buy' set at 130p ish currently . Best of luck!

Half year results on 6th August , Tartine - I guess there'll be some current commentary then.

Links aren't usually prohibited hens. Was it the article on MENAFN?

Ooops - maybe not.

I think we've all made expensive mistakes - and G has taught me that several times over.
Looking at a 15' view, with 146 holding so far after a fairly steady fortnight advancing and short-term trends in green, we really could be on course for Hasiba's 156 if 152 doesn't trip us up. I think it'll depend on Brent staying firm - an extra $1 there would help :
https://invst.ly/rdmb0

No worries, Hydrogen, it's all about balance so, no, I've not piled all my G profits into RDSb.
Speaking of profits, though, I did sell off a few more G today and am now just slightly 'underweight' in G and 'overweight' in cash as a consequence. G has been a good earner for me recently .
I don't personally think we'll ever see $100 oil again but I think Shale will be back relatively soon - not that it has really gone away. The survivors will keep pumping and thereby limiting both the rate and magnitude of recovery in OP. Meanwhile G today is perched at a level that seems to be based on sentiment/expectation rather than revenue. I think we've been here before.

.....so we are in reality at around 153p...

Yes, of course, a month after ex-div date, with the dividend paid but with with no guarantee of what (if any) the next div will be, the sp is worth the current price plus the last div....
Hmmmm.
In normal circumstances - yes, the ex-div discount does indeed reduce over time. But for this to happen there needs to be a solid track record of dividend payment plus continuation of revenue and profitability that makes the next dividend probable. For G, the jury may still be out on that and I think the current sp reflects the market's view of the risks. We are now over a month since ex-div, so my perception would be that the discount (the sp reduction to compensate for non-receipt of the last dividend) has now evaporated.

Correction: GvOP ratio already stretched to 3.37x not 3.7x ! ! !

Yes- a good day and a nice closing price. Having re-checked the mechanics of the closing auction and UT I'm much less sceptical about the price shifts we've seen recently.
Did someone say 156 next stop? It's certainly possible but a couple of potential obstacles on the way at 146 and 152, not to mention the GvOP ratio already stretched to 3.7x, which puts today's price at about 10p over par. Still, G has exceeded expectations before so why not again? https://invst.ly/rcvk3

Here’s a ‘reality check’ comparison of the usual crew plus PMO since Brent peaked at $86 nearly two years ago. It’s an appropriate point to do this as OP has fallen by almost exactly 50% since then and is probably very close to its final average for 2020*. The FTSE100 has fallen 18% over the period.
https://invst.ly/rc7m8

The best performer of this group is Chevron at -30% with G somewhat surprisingly next at -44%. Much to my dismay - as it has been a ‘safe’ energy stock for me, RDSb is at -54%, whilst DNO, GKP and PMO are clustered down at -66%.

* Due to the way the ytd average for Brent has lagged the collapse in price, it has only just fallen to the current price of near $43. So, unless OP drops back below $40 for an extended period, which seems highly unlikely, and with futures fairly consistent near $43, the average for the year looks set to end up somewhere near $43.

It seems the FTSE100 line had been dropped off the chart yesterday - it's included here: https://invst.ly/rc7dv