Member Info for bluemoon71

The spread looks misleadingly tempting to trade,but you'd do well to make 1% . You'll make more money sitting on your hands for a few months

GLA LTH

It's daylight robbery in all but name. Sadly many PIs never learn, or learn the hard way, after they've lost their shares on a c8-10% spread spike down

GLA LTH

Gmaxwell, make your mind up. This was you yesterday!

"40p by week end, 90p by end of summer and 2 quid by NYE easily."

I don't know why a potential partner wouldn't consider just buying Tullow. At £1 per share, they'd be getting the company for just over £3Billion,taking debt into account. That's 75k+ bopd from Ghana and 470 million bbls in Kenya for another £3.5B capex outlay? I think most shareholders would take £1/share...I certainly would.

GLA LTH

Over an hour and half into trading day and no Automatic buys/sells showing. Algorithms switched off, trading desk IT problems or nothing to see here?

GLA LTH

Good news is Patel retired Elyisium. Bad news is they've been on a spelling course and is back as Blackpool of Gold

GLA LTH

Quite, Super. I bought into Rahul's 5 year plan and always intended to hold until Ghana and Kenya played out. Yes, I'm down on my initial holding since May last year, but I added substantially at 27p(thank you doctordong and fellow shorters) and am now looking forward even more to Ghana and Kenya playing out.

DD and his mate Patel joined here in Feb 2023, let's see if they have the cajones to see Ghana and Kenya play out.

GLA LTH

You know shorters like doctordong are upset and anxious, when they talk incessantly and only talk about the past not the future.

Hold for gold

GLA LTH

Interesting figure 22.5%. It might suggest Tlw also get 22.5%, with main partner getting 55% and overall control. Now that would be a nice outcome

GLA LTH

Total shorts were 10.15% at the end of June. They jumped from around 3.5% to 10% around May 2022, when SP was close to 60p, and +/- 1% ,they've been at that level ever since. As commented in another post, the 2.86% is just those holding over 0.5%

You can find info here:

https://my.euroclear.com/apps/en/monthly-stock-loan-data.html#month=eq:6&year=eq:2023&limit=25&search=1&order=asc:abbreviation

GLA LTH

Agree on the trend, Star. Was simply pointing out to expect unpredictable volatility given high shorts and low trading volumes.

On fundamentals it should, but there's too much noise to have any confidence in short term. Shorts are still over 10% and with low daily trading volumes MMs can take this where they want to. Recent good news on Jubilee and oil around $80 should provide some downside protection. I'm confident of 6 month Outlook for SP but day to day,literally anything could happen. Look at today's SP action with oil increasing and other oilies up several %.

GLA LTH

All good points SC. I think the partners walking away perhaps leaves me nervous and hence pessimistic on value accretion from Kenya. The yet to be found new partner has a strong negotiating hand. As a LTH I'd be delighted to be wrong on this and for you/Anton to be right

GLA LTH

Anton,the same was said about Uganda. We sold the oil for under $2 per bbl. OK, we were in a more difficult financial position then, but not that different. Our partners have just walked away with nothing from a potental 25% share of your $35B carrot. I think you are overestimating what we will get and maybe I'm being pessimistic. We can both hope for the best for Tullow. We will see soon

GLA LTH

JB, net debt at year end is forecast at $1.7B not 1.4(see July update financial section). With regards Kenya, I don't think they will want any solution that requires them to fund Capex whilst they are focused on debt reduction. I'd be happy to see them sell everything for $1-2 per bbl of resource in ground($450-900M). If they can negotiate a free carry they might keep a small percentage. I don't think they are looking to totally remove debt, but to get it below 1B so refinancing is must cheaper. Things should be much clearer this side of Xmas.

All IMHO

GLA LTH

2nd day running MMs spiked SP down for few minutes on a few thousand shares. If you use Stop Losses, set them carefully.

GLA LTH

Capricorn down 13% today on risk to contingent payments of delayed project. We dodged a bullet with that potential merger

GLA LTH

It's not meaningless at all DD. It shows shorters are just as likely to miss maximising their opportunity as longs are and just as likely to have misplaced reasons for doing so. Keep highlighting the calculation Anton

GLA LTH

Agree Bailiff, Bid showing as 32.5 but was offered 33.1 for 200,000 shares. MMs want your shares...hold for gold

GKA LTH

There were over 140 million shares on loan in June. Whilst I'm not expecting a short squeeze, I am expecting a steady rise in coming quarter as shorts decide whether to double down or go with the positive news flow

GLA LTH