Member Info for bluemoon71

No-one is likely to make an offer for Tlw whilst the Kenya question is unanswered. Not going to happen.

If Tlw management don't resolve the tax disputes as part of the Ghana gas deal negotiations, they really shouldn't be in their jobs

GLA LTH

It's the toss of a coin which way MMs will take the SP each day,oil price is clearly no indicator presently,better sitting on your hands. Only news will move SP,or shorters deciding to move on, which is unlikely in absence of the former. Kenya being pushed out removes risk for shorters short term. On the plus side Tlw is reaping in the cash at these oil levels, so in time SP should reflect it. Question is,how long?

GLA LTH

Thanks J.Bond. Very informative, eminently sensible and easy for even me to follow. Appreciate you taking the time

GLA LTH

Interesting post J.Bond. I'm intrigued why you/the market think the 7% bonds won't redeem at par. My understanding is there is only 360M circulating. Surely this can be covered by forward fcf. I'd have thought the 10.25% bonds would be riskier but then I'm an equity not bond investor. Just interested to try and understand

GLA LTH

7%/10.25% bonds continue their recent rise are are now over 75/85 respectively. Will see if that confidence is reflected in equity in coming weeks

GLA LTH

Lot of whining about. If you can't put up with 10% swings at the whim of MMs/shorters you really shouldn't be invested here. It is what it is. We're up 60% from May lows and until shorters move on,which may not be for years if their end game is to await financial restructuring and Kenya doesn't happen. Meanwhile the volatility of the last few years is a part of holding this share.

GLA LTH

Negotiations with Ghana government are our next key milestone for support to the SP. As well as the gas price, they are hopefully also discussing use of infrastructure fir other developments and a resolution to the tax dispute. Arbitration set for Oct and interim gas deal runs to end September so not long to wait....unless they do a Kenya and push out the discussion period

GLA LTH

Fair points Stupmy. For info, you can view the data without an account by entering as a guest on login page, it's what I do.

I see the rupee King, Patel, has popped up again as a MasterShorter!

Stumpy, as I've reported before on here, the 2.69% Tlw shorts you reference are for those holding more than 0.5%. Many hold below that level. Tlw loan stock end of August was 10.33%...see link. It amazes me people so invested in a share can't get hold of basic,relevant data

GLA LTH

https://my.euroclear.com/apps/en/monthly-stock-loan-data.html#month=eq:8&year=eq:2023&limit=25&search=1&order=asc:abbreviation

It's not about jam tomorrow, they are making jam today. 107,000 bopd from Jubilee and $75M FCF in 2H up to end of August. We're very much linked to the POO and with Brent over $92/bbl, it's a good start to the jam season. Obviously disappointing SP move today, but with over 10% shorts these swings are to be expected. Fundamentals haven't been better for 3years.

GLA LTH

And to think some on here think shorters are our friends and have no impact on SP!

The main positive, there's no negative surprises. Otherwise, as you were. Nothing to worry shorters,yet.

GLA LTH

If only we weren't plagued with over 10% shorts. Nothing seems to shake their persistence

GLA LTH

Strong recovery since Tlw bought back some and nice jump up over 70 since start of September. Hopefully a sign of increasing confidence

https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/usg91237aa87-tullow-oil-plc-7-18-25

Over 3% down on less than £100k of trades tells you all you need to know. Sit on your shares.

GLA LTH

Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-04/gabon-military-leader-proposes-referendum-on-new-constitution?leadSource=uverify%20wall

You're not wrong OrangeMan, but a bit harsh all the same. We've all been guilty of pressing the sell button too soon, or indeed too late,when the data told us differently. Once the anger/frustration subsides in those that sold yesterday, they can see they lost 10% from where they were. Not something to beat yourself up about in a share like Tullow that has moved up 60% in a few months. Reassess why you were invested and then either get back in or move on. Most importantly, learn a lesson for wherever you invest next

GLA LTH

MMs rely on people ignoring fundamentals and trading on fear. It's why most PIs lose their money. If you believe in a company, sit on your hands and hold through the scares. Perhaps investing in African oilers isn't for everyone

GLA LTH