Member Info for bluemoon71

I share your pain/frustration Ando but,on the positive side, there has been no change to our performance/profit numbers. If the coup results in nationalised assets then so be it, we will lose 20%. For now, this is a fear only,which MMs will play on. Until the fundamentals change,I'm sitting on my hands.

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Not sure it's about what Tullow say, though a statement that current activity is unaffected is positive. Need whoever is in charge to say that all international companies/agreements have nothing to fear in upcoming transition. Then we can all breathe again.

It's the lack of info that drives the fear. As more companies,like below, confirm actual status,things will settle

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Gabon’s Assala Energy says oil production unaffected

Assala Energy says its oil production in Gabon has been unaffected by the military coup in the country.

“We can confirm that all our personnel are safe, our operations continue as usual and our production is not affected,” a company spokesperson said.

Gabon produces about 200,000 barrels a day (bpd) of crude oil, making it the second-smallest OPEC producer.

Oh look, liar and coward Patel is back. Quelle surprise!

It's scaremongering nonsense. They are suggesting 25% dilution(issuing 375m shares at $.4 per share) of existing shareholders to raise $150M which doesn't even touch the sides of the outstanding debt. Definitely a shorter agenda.

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I think this is the article being referred to.Not that it makes it any clearer to me, an equity issue to raise just $150M

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1024395/tullow-oil-should-issue-equity-ahead-of-2024-debt-financing-1024395.html

The most positive thing will not be about the Ghana gas deal/ price per se, but if they simultaneously announce they have agreed a resolution to the tax disputes in Ghana as part of the gas deal negotiation. Then we will lift off

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ECO shares are up 13% so far today,so market obviously thinks it's a good deal for them. I think it's right decision for Tlw too.

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It's real. It's on ADVFN site. LSE just a bit slow I guess.

No large negative bid price on opening today. Interesting

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No. The conversion of mscfd of gas to boepd is simply an energy comparison. It's saying 100mscfd is equivalent, in energy terms, to 7kbpoed. You don't get an extra 7k barrels of oil a day! We're getting 5x more per mscf for the gas we sell, it's no more complicated than that.

Anton, the volume of gas being sold is the same,100mscfd as per 2023 guidance., which is equivalent to 7kboepd. That doesn't change, we are simply getting more for it, but it doesn't equate to more volume. So, more revenue but not more boepd

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Positive step towards receiving realistic and commercial price for gas. Bring on end 2Q

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EIA confirm 17 million barrel weekly crude draw and oil price falls 3%. Wtf? America also pull out of deal to buy 6 million barrels to replenish the SPR because of recent oil rally. They really want the oil price down. My money is on the Saudis.

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Kenya looking to redeem $1B of their euro bonds at below par value. Seems a good idea, as it was for Tullow, though rating agencies consider it as default. Interesting...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-02/kenya-s-eurobonds-plunge-as-moody-s-warns-buyback-may-be-default?leadSource=uverify%20wall

Price increase since May low. We had a lot of directors buying, our biggest shareholder increased his stake from 12 to over 16% and we had the good news from Jubilee. Shorts are a factor, but not the only one.

Is 10% significant? That's 140 million shares. Average daily trading volume is 5-6 million shares. You tell me...

You can see monthly historical data,but not daily( as far as I'm aware). Therefore, there is no data yet for this July. Basically, short interest jumped from under 4% in May 2022(when SP was close to 60p) to 10% in June 2022 and, +/- 1%, it has stayed at these elevated levels until end of June 2023. Will be interesting to see where it is at end of July(data will be on Euroclear site in early August) but no sign in daily volumes there's been any meaningful reduction yet.

As I've mentioned several times, total shorts can be found here. End of June, 10.15%

https://my.euroclear.com/apps/en/monthly-stock-loan-data.html#month=eq:6&year=eq:2023&limit=25&search=1&order=asc:abbreviation

I think Shorts have quite an asymmetric risk here now, and gave had since we bottomed at 22p. There's no current value in the SP for Kenya. If it's a positive outcome, doubling of SP is a likely outcome. A negative outcome, but with continued positive news out of Ghana, it's perhaps a journey back to mid 20's. With over 10% shorts at the end of June, I'm not sure if they are brave or foolhardy ?

GLA LTH