Member Info for Bhants

Any bets on how it will go today after NYSE opens?

Debt is a problem for all the cruise lines.

I would say that according to the SEC filing and the webinar in December, the maximum debt is 75% of assets. At the moment it is 50%. Institutions are happy to lend on a secured basis, too so whilst debt appears to be an issue it is being very actively managed and monitored.

B

The Q4 results produced a tanking in the share price.

Later this month, 28th, we get the Q1 results which, as Bot has indicated below, are expected to be better than expected. We wait to see. The SP will hopefully hold its own until then.

B

Don’t tell me, K, you had to spend a night in a doss house……?

B

Don’t shout yet, but SP is up nearly 6% on the day so far. Probably a drop coming just before close.

BTW, what happened to the £Stg roday? Dropped below $1.20.

B

My grandad used to own a doss house in Padiham. 6d for a straw paliasse, 3D to sleep “on the rope” strung between two poles either end of a long bench. When my mum was little, her favourite job was to release the rope to wake them up in the morning.

This kind of stuff needs to be recorded somewhere.

B

Padiham was my mum’s home village and Clitheroe her school.

B

Well, that was a surprise, I must say. I reckon the whole thing of Nicole S was cooked up in Florida and pushed through by Carnival Execs, possibly despite the wishes of Mr Ludlow. She is not just being Godmother but will be producing shows for the ships. Hopefully not P & O as she is definitely not my taste. Used to be Lewis Hamilton’s girl.

Uptick in price this morning is also a welcome surprise.

Could even break through £8 again pending Q1 results later this month. That is just one of many possibilities, of course……..

B

I assume DYOR is Do Your Own Research?

Anyway, looks like a bit of a struggle to hold its own, today - at present, losing the very small gain from yesterday. There is loads of positive news coming out from Carnival so, like Sundezena, we need to be patient.

From what I can work out, the Q1 results will be positive, although they will need to be well above expectations for any reasonable uptick in the share price.

B

Thanks for the info Fordy - I have signed up.

B

Looks like we finish the day just a tad up. Glad it held its own. RNS’s from Carnival have a poor history in terms of effect on the spare price!

B

Like I said before, Institutional lenders are not stupid and there are some big names involved here. They obviously think Carnival has at least decent prospects for the next two years and beyond so one would hope that that when the expected good/better Q1 results come out later this month, there will be an upswing in the share price.

BTW, Botbot, you cannot do a direct comparison of UK and US share prices because there is a 12% discount to the UK as the shares do not have voting rights.

B

Thanks, mathsprof. That is actually really helpful info. There is no way RCL is worth nearly 4x CCL.

I agree about dilutions but they were oversubscribed fairly massively and the priority notes they issued were the same.

Like I said, institutional investors are not stupid. They only put their money where they think it will work for them.

I am with you, hangin’ on in there!

B

You could always try telling us something useful, Bowlers12

And that could have been written by Carnival, too.

Is that shorthand for Market Makers? Apols for ignorance!

B

If they do, there could be a case for insider trading……..

Corporations are not allowed to lie to their regulator - in this case the SEC in America.

All this was submitted to the SEC two weeks ago - it’s their regulatory duty todo this. It cannot be the reason for the tanking today because it was announced that Carnival made their filing. I read through it and, whilst you would expect optimism, the executive cannot go OTT because it is a regulatory filing. Nonetheless, the underlying health of Carnival is plain to see and the biggest issue, the debt, is well under control and being very closely managed and monitored. Why else would priority notes be over-subscribed? Institutional investors are not stupid. They were also happy to buy over 1m shares at $9.95 when the market price was less than that.

Anyway, rant over. I am sticking with it, like Botbot, because I have to.

I have come to the conclusion that CCL is an unfavoured company and the markets take any and every opportunity to depress the price. But why?

Sentiment rules - “I know what I know, don’t try and confuse me with any facts” seems to be how it goes.

I do hope that the Q1 results for Carnival are above expectations. We might just see a bit of a recovery. I am with you Bot.

B

Was there some announcement around 11.30 today, or a massive sell-off, or director share sale? The price tanked a bit at that time.

Just asking….

B