Member Info for Bhants

Will the SP get to £7 today?

I think we’re all waiting for the Q1 results now - due out next Monday.

B

Sure as eggs is eggs - at the moment it cannot hang on to any gain.

Will close evens at best, likely 1% down.

B

Mesa,

I don’t think they need to dilute. They can and are servicing the debt as it is all on fixed rate terms. When it comes to renew, there are plenty of institutions who are prepared to bid for it.

Last I heard it was being sold at 80c on the dollar having previously been 60c.

I think next Monday will be a good platform for a recovery laucnch.

B

Island,

27th March. If you want the stuff first hand, go to www.carnivalplc.com and listen to the simulcast of the webinar. The last one was quite enlightening.

B

Agreed, Sunbeam, they are trying to be better - it’s a plank in their platform of aspirations.

America is the largest exporter of LNG, I think, so Carnival well placed to take advantage of that. However, some studies indicate that while a case can be made for LNG in reducing CO2, the output of methane is possibly four times greater. Methane is 86 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2. I do hope I read that completely wrong!

Q1 results will be key to future performance of share price. Hopefully a springboard - and not a belly-flop!

B

Hi EC, yes, your arithmetic works and it will make a difference but primarily to operating costs through to the bottom line.

If the high oil price had been affecting the share price then the reduction would come through there. I just don’t think it will.

Let’s hop for a good Q1 result and we should see an uplift.

B

Bobbling around a bit - still, better than sinking.

EC, the price of oil has not worked through to CCL’s share price in the past. Do you have reason to think it might now? It mainly goes to the bottom line but even then only in Q2 now as Q1 results due on 27th.

And back out again….

So £6.37 it is with the uncrossed trades and late registrations to come - neither of which have done the price any favours this week.

£6.00 tomorrow, or even less, possibly.

B

We’ll be lucky to end the day at £6.40………..

There is no justification for a near 10% drop. Shorters will be having a field day.

B

Hi Fordy,

Apologies to you and Linda - like you I am really struggling to get my head around what is going on.

There is supposedly no risk of another 2008 but you never know what is around the corner. It wasn’t banking that caused the problem but a potential run on it when they disclosed they lost a bomb on their bond holdings when they had to sell a chunk off to keep their cash holdings up to pay customers.

Anyway, like so many, we shall just have to hold on.

The only question I have is this: what has changed in CCL’s financials in the last few days to cause this tanking?

B

Like Fordy, I would like to know WTF is going on here. There has been no hint that the Q1 results will be anything but good, hopefully above expectations. However, cannot now be sure that would be enough to stabilise this. What’s happening to other cruise line shares?

Well, good for you, Linda. We all love to be gloated over by someone who made a good guess.

Me too!

Looks like the US had not had the usual effect of a dip……..

With a bit of following wind we might stay in the £6.90’s.

B

I suspect the day will not end at £7. NYSE opens in 15 minutes. Hang on to your hollyhocks…..

The business is sound and results should be fairly predictable.

Unfortunately, sentiment drives the market, it seems, rather than facts, as seen in the last day or two with SVB. Immediately rescued at no risk to banks generally yet shares in that sector plunged.

I would hope, and that’s all it can be at this point, that it would reach £10-12. It won’t get back to its giddy heights of £45-50 for a number of years, if ever.

Just my own thoughts.

B

To be exact, there is a webinar scheduled for 27th March at 2pm our time to “provide a business update”.

There will be a simulcast from the two US websites

www.carinvalcorp.com

and

www.carnivalplc.com

You will be able to hear the analysts grill the senior management - or, if it’s anything like the last one, spoon feed senior management pre-advised questions.

That tactic caused the share price to tank to less than £5 so, unless the results are pretty spectacularly above expectations, prepare for another tanking.

B

Stupid comment - it’s financial position hasn’t changed in the last few weeks.