Member Info for Bhants

No problem, holo. We seem to have struck it lucky y with the usual commenters on this share. None of the usual personal insult stuff. Welcome.

Looks like we shall lose half of yesterday’s gain, though.

B

The thing is, holo, the UK shares do not have voting rights so there is a 12% reduction “off the top” for that. So Bot, I understand, combines that with the exchange rate to give a CCL exchange rate. Most times it’s pretty close but there do seem to be occasional blips or mismatches.

B

Have to make do with just under 6% today!

B

I think we might see an UPTICK!

B

Heading for £9.00 or below after NYSE opened.

B

We could have fared a lot, lot worse than this today.

Have a good weekend all.

B

i had a quick s***** at the numbers - total expenditure on fuel for 2023 projected to be $2bn. that was before the price increase and then drop. i wouldn’t expect much of a departure from that come year-end, even with more adverse movements.

b

Until now, CCL has not moved n line with, or even reflected any effect of, the oil price. I am not convinced it is doing so now. The movements in price have been too violent for them to be related to that. Having said that, I don’t have a Scooby Doo as to the reason(s) for the movements.

I think it is slowly clawing its way back.

B

In their call last week, they anticipated fuel costs to be a “headwind” of about 1% in the full year. They also anticipated scale cost savings of about the same amount. No idea of actual fuel costs p.a.

Might be worth a look at the documents submitted to the SEC?

B

Morning all,

Interesting article this morning in The Times. Comments about domestic wealth in the US give the lie to the experts saying “no one has any money to spend”.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/is-there-financial-disaster-dead-ahead-sbv736xll

B

And a small rebound to the mid £9.4’s. Bot, do you have any idea how a share with a total tradeable number in issue of more than 146m can be so volatile? It must mean huge numbers of trades of real size to achieve these bounces?

BTW, I remain completely unconvinced about any relationship between Carnival share price and the price of oil.

B

If that’s right, it is only $83,375,000 per year saved……..

B

The main drop has happened after the NYSE opened!

B

Problem is, when to know that the price has bottomed out.

I always seem to be able to guess it wrong!

B

Well, FWIW, I have to sit on my hands.

Yet again, EC, you manage to call it wrong in respect of the oil price. I did say earlier that the Carnival SP is not sensitive to that.

As far as the current downswing is concerned, it is a similar pattern, so far, to the Q2 results.

If you listened to the analysts questions after the prepared remarks from the CEO and CFO, they all preceded their (very tame) questions with something like “congratulations on fantastic results”. So, either they were being very sarcastic or they were the only ones who thought the results were that good.

Bot, what was the amount of the note that was repaid? That will tell how much outgoing has been saved. If it was $1bn, that is $115.000.000 saved each year.

The numbers are mind-boggling, frankly, but as I have said before, institutions must be happy to lend, i.e. they believe Carnival is “good for the money” (apologies for the technical jargon).

We’ll have to wait and see. Bot, I can only sympathise with your pain. I don’t have anything you can rub on it to relieve it.

B

And another thing…….

This stock, according to Carnival, has 146,000,000+ shares in issue and tradeable. How can this total volume of stock have such volatility? Seems like you only sell or buy a single share and tge price drops or rises.

Very odd.

B

Thank you Stupmy - I do tend to think in analogies or parallels.

Never had the bottle to day-trade and any what if I had…… have shown the the folly of even thinking about it! So, resume the pose of the patient man.

B

One further thought. Why do analysts persist in using debt vs capital value as a measure of something or other? Surely a better measure is debt vs net assets and/or credit rating? In any case, CCL have a target of achieving “investment grade” status by 2025, I think, which says to me they are confident of reducing their gearing substantially by then?

(Naive) B

Stupmy, thanks for that. As the disclaimers always say, “Past performance is no guide to the future”. I don’t mean that in any insulting way. I agree with Bot, partly because I am in for the longer haul not the next few months so will put up with whatever happens in the meantime because I believe they have solid plans in place and are achieving /exceeding them - not that the experts take any notice at all of anything positive.

I was told once that an “ex” is a has been and a “spurt” is a drip under pressure. Sounds about right.

We have said before that the last thing people will give up is their holidays.

Having bought in at an average of £7.95, I am not yet uncomfortable. Just wish NatWest would get their finger out of wherever it’s currently stuck. Nearly sold them and bought more CCL at £10.30. Glad I didn’t.

B

Hi all,

There weren’t any open short positions in the UK so I rely on your viewing the US stuff Bot.

I get the impression that the negative reaction is due to Carnival not improving their overall year performance expectations. They did say that fuel prices were a headwind of about 1% but the also anticipated savings of scale of about the same on expenses.

Personally, I don’t think the results and forecasts justified the hugely negative impact. Still, what do I know - clearly not much!

Have a good weekend all. Happy cruising. See you Monday.

B