focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
ALGO’s dominate most markets nowadays with up to 80% of volume of many markets. Regulators are like rabbits in the headlines and as always will be late to the party with a warm bottle of Riesling. I am invested in a number of companies where ALGO’s know they can dominate pricing and when it gets a little more difficult they will move onto the next target. All that we insignificant PI’s can do is either to attempt to imitate the ALGO’s which is beyond my pay grade or believe in the fundamentals and stay patient which is what I will do.
So, Ken has been effusing about the surprising results from D. Not doubt the Board will be equally astonished at how cheap the shares now are. If their enthusiasm is genuine then why don’t they buy a big chunk of shares at these prices. I am waiting for the RNS!
IMO Bogart really needs to give the market an update on progress with the alleged market manipulation litigation. Is it progressing and if so, who are the defendants etc ? If this gets kicked into the long grass it will put further pressure on the share price. Also, if there are continued doubts in the market based on what Block is asserting vis a vis the Petersen asset and if some of it was bought by a fund linked to BUR which enabled a mark to market price which helped to boost earnings this may have to explained explained to the market. The Woodford overhang hang may be bought as a block but which fund would do so if they had lingering doubts about the current position. Lots of questions and head scratching for me.
My personal view is that FID may never happen as BLVN are not in control of the process. I sense that folks will sell out here now as we may see a bounce in the markets post election and there are countless opportunities elsewhere and can’t see why you would leave funds in here with no certainty of a positive outcome. COC have c****d up!
I am under no illusion that our BOD have a huge amount to prove and have made statements this year to ‘appease the angry mob’ such as no dilution and better communications. Now, if Harvey ‘disappoints’ and comes in at the lower end of expectations, and the effect of that is that CalE decide not to exercise Harvey option expect a further dip. I expect however that the BOD will ensure that any adverse news is accompanied with positive news on new licences and/or development project progress, after all we are fully funded which is sometimes easy to forget with the LOG overhang. I am content to rely on CalE’s judgement and expertise as they have spent many long months on due diligence and have to accept that they see an opportunity which may deliver in a few years not a few months. Patience is not something I am blessed with in every stock but I have accepted that is essential here as I may regret selling out.
TLW - fully agree that this has been one hell of a trading opportunity and others like your good self have clearly taken advantage which is always good to hear. Investing at these levels could prove lucrative provided that the company is not forced into a heavily discounted cash raise and certainly if they can present better operational performance figures to the market in the new year. I recognise with such a large aggregate short position if/when momentum does change to the upside this could rise very quickly indeed. I would be comfortable in missing the early rise however if I felt confident that the company had turned the corner in trading, injection of new management etc etc. Until then I will tune in from time to time to see how things are shaping up. Good luck to all holders.
Did anyone listen to the investor call today? I decided that there were better things to do. Notwithstanding, if anyone did listen in it would be appreciated if you had a moment to post if there was indeed any small morsel to hang your hat on and provide a reason to invest more at these lowly levels. Thanks.
TLW - I have been here on and off for a few years but not a holder at the moment and not trading this either. The last trading update moved IQE into my 2nd watchlist ( 1st watchlist are likely investments just waiting for a signal, 2nd are those where I think they have something of value in this case, IP but I have real concerns about performance. ) Poor management, poor PR and trading losses putting pressure on cash, massive spare capacity hence disefficiencies and of course large short positions which are solid as a rock ( circa 10%) all suggest that there is limited upside and a potential cash raise or more debt IMO. Something has to change such as dynamic new management, new exciting clients, etc. Yes, always a potential takeover target for IP ( similar to ARM ) but not worth investing for that alone IMO. Pity as promised a lot and so far delivering very little.
Thanks Mkm I missed that one but good that Bogart is getting US exposure ahead of possible US listing. I do feel that value investors are ready to jump in at the correct time and this will find a higher range at that time IMO.
Algo trading is taking over as many will know. Across world markets Algo trades can account for as much of 80% volume. I have some investments which have more than 80% of automated trades each day and IMO hedge funds appear to be either trading for their own account with a defined strategy or on behalf of others. They are becoming more and more powerful in equity markets and PI’s can only sit back and wait until they have achieved their objective or piggy back on their strategy but very difficult to discern. One thing for sure is that the regulators are at least 5 steps behind so don’t expect that FCA will keep them honest any time soon! I do agree that ultimately value will out so important to DYOR and believe in it.
DMcG - We all know that these were not all buys. Couple of points to make here. The Woodford overhang continues to concern me and IMO is still a drag. Secondly, nothing about the litigation against the alleged manipulators so I expect that interested investors are sitting on the sidelines pro tem. Others points well made by others re Petersen and how much gain taken so far also places doubt. Resolve the above and shorts will cover and the price will start to recover IMO.
Limited free float means big daily swings on relatively small volume. Also, if Gangfeng and others want to restore their pre-M&G positions they may have buy orders in with brokers which may take some time to fill. Bid has been dropped to make it easier/cheaper for them so possible but not certain but I do know that is what happens in this market.
As I said just the other day, rampers and derampers are all or nothing on these bulletin boards and for those who have been around the block a few times you will recognise that and yawn. I have always believed this to be a binary play on MED2005 but in some ways I was wrong as the Placebo could be the answer.......! Who would have thought that? Makes me somewhat relived that I was disciplined here and held only a modest holding so back to where I started investing here a year or so ago. A stark reminder not to believe the hype with Pharma stocks until the results are known. This is now a punt on whether our surprise Placebo will be on the shelves as an OTC gel any time soon. Not a pleasant pre-Xmas announcement but let’s hear what the BOD have to say.
Well, I remain invested here through thick and thin and whilst I did not invest more on the last raise, as a LTH I am much more relaxed here despite continued drops in the share price. We all know that the LOG overhang continues to cast a black cloud but IMO the Administrator was recently signalling the price at which he will sell the 29.9% stake over which he is presiding. Now, the delayed Harvey results may be due to the fact that CalE are in deep discussions and we may hear about this soon. We cannot be sure that this will be negative. Do you think that CalE would have negotiated a significant investment pre-Harvey results if that was material? No, of course not but they ensured that they have an option if the results are good. So, I agree that the BOD appear to be reverting to type but there may be very good reasons for that and let’s hope we find out soon. Not for a short term trade but really good long term potential.
Well, it seems to me that arranging an investor call on Wed after the share price has tanked is a bit like bolting the stable door after the horse has long gone! Crown has underestimated the fact that they are pawns in a game with limited power to influence and are set to lose a packet here. I attended the last couple of investor calls which were no comfort at all. They are simply designed to attempt to stem the flow of PI sales as any institutional funds can pick up the phone to the part-time CEO to find out what is going on. Sorry state of affairs here!
I share Jimini’s concerns and sold out today. I am a value investor and have made strong returns here 7/8 years ago when it was a popular and respected brand. I reinvested after the big drop a year ago. The turnaround will clearly take time and my optimism for a bounce has disappeared. I had hoped for a quality and hungry CEO to take the reins to complement Dunkerton but looks as though this will not happen so Dunkerton will continue to dabble with stuff which interest him outside of the company which means that he is not totally dedicated to the turnaround IMO. This, coupled with continued challenges across the sector suggests a slow grind with no guarantee of success. Brand reinvigoration is tough in good times and even tougher in bad times. Will keep on Watchlist as no debt ensure a floor on the share price but a lot needs to change for me to jump back in.
People come and go on these boards for all sorts of reasons, change of mind, boredom, someone has upset him, busy with other things, etc, etc. Best thing to do is to own each and every investment decision you make as prolific posters for/against a particular stock tend to just disappear which often seems odd. I suspect that when results of P3 are made public and if they do not disappoint, the price will respond positively and he may even make an appearance again. Such are these bulletin boards!
NeilH- I suppose I want to know what is going on so feel irked with Cross’s natural style which is ‘trust me all will come good in the end!’ Doesn’t wash with me. Got chunky stakes in Greatland Gold (GGP) - outstanding new discovery in W Australia ( probability Tier 1) and recent JV with Newcrest, SOLG entered as it dropped to 20p a few months ago on country risk concerns but amazing assets and upside as BHP increased stake this week, and IOG ( UK Southern Nth Sea gas play with Buffet recently investing 29.9% through a UK subsidiary) tough year but exciting 2020 ahead IMO. A few others but prefer to invest in 6-8 max after research and hold for monetising event but 70% in cash pre-election just hope for the right result so money comes back into risk assets in UK. Investing here at these levels will probably show a return over medium term but you have to be comfortable with the silent treatment! Best.