Member Info for bandit1

I agree as sadly this is typical of regional press with low-grade journalism. The digital press makes a mockery of old school business journalism which simply recycles days-old news. I do not expect the share price here to recover any time soon. Look at BUR whose management have comprehensively rebutted Muddy Waters claims many months ago yet the price is stuck in a fairly tight range significantly lower than the short attack levels. When multiples are fairly rich it takes a brave instititution to commit even more or indeed invest a new chunk whilst a dark cloud hangs over the company. I loathe these type of attacks which are carefully constructed and orchestrated with many connected parties involved but Of course they will all deny that they are connected. Fact is the price takes a big hit and it will take some considerable to recover. History tells us this and Muddy Waters and their crew know that.

I am also pretty irritated by these additional awards but as we all know, this is what happens all the time on AIM. My NY resolution is to start to reduce my exposure to AIM stocks if and when they spike as Boards can pretty much do what they want and get away with it. I get the need to align senior management but as I have said previously, the BOD have a heck of a lot to prove to shareholders ( so far they have destroyed rather than create value) and layering more options onto existing options when the share price is at this level is a somewhat of a slap in the face. So, our ‘yet to prove himself CEO’ only has to see the share price double from here and remember, just over a year ago we saw an average price of over 30p from June - October 2018, and he will earn £0.75m pre-tax just on this latest block of options with a 1p strike. As others have said, this may also enrich them in the event of a takeover option subject to the vesting conditions which we are not privy to. Time to step up to the plate chaps and prove to is that you are worthy of these almost nil cost give away options.

Malinky - no idea how long you have been invested here but if you have read,in detail, the rebuttals following the MW short attack and understand the specific accounting issues under challenge, you would know that the BUR board have responded extremely professionally and comprehensively to the claims made by Carson Block. IMO, the NM board response was much less convincing. I am much more interested in the Petersen litigation and whether there have been any ‘creative’ methods to establish fair value and the litigation which is underway against the alleged manipulators. Establishing clarity on these will determine my own strategy here.

Thanks for sharing McLean. The SBB has been underwhelming so far but much more positive times are indeed ahead of us. I have grown a few beards here but continue to believe that fundamental values of cash in hand and future riches will ensure that the share price pushes out of the current range. When it does these days of £25k ho hum will be long forgotten.

This is typical of so many pharmas or high tech companies with senior management who are technicians/ scientist types with limited commercial/technical expertise. They find themselves in the position as CEO but do not possess the skills. I abhor placings at huge discounts for working capital and whilst some of the monies will progress through further trials the only real winner here is Lombard Odier who have been playing this management team like a fiddle for the past couple of years. I will hang onto my investment to see if the so-called industry experts were right( we know who you are) but will not even contemplate averaging down as the BOD do not deserve any more money from me - indeed to be fair, they don’t need it as LO have them wrapped up like a kipper! Warrants at 40p looks fanciful to me at the moment. Ho hum!

Viticoltore - thanks and I agree that there is likely to be some corporate activity here at some point. Lets see if LO and others maintain the majority of their holdings. Modest director buys but always helps a little in my book.

Who will win this battle? As much as I dislike Carson Block’s smug and brutal approach to making money he has achieved a lot of success and he has a lot of support from other funds who hang onto his coat tails. The BOD here are taking a fairly relaxed approach to the claims he is making so far. Is that enough and will he simply go away? I suspect not so they may have to put some effort in to show with forensic analysis to reassure the market.

Still scratching my head on this. So, with LO, Administrator of LOG between them holding half of the equity give or take on a fully diluted basis. Add to that others such as Richard Griffiths and Burggraben and you have potentially 60%+ of the equity sown up. So, the question on my mind is whether the farm-out deal is the poison pill which protects IOG from a predator or is there sufficient value from the share of retained earnings to interest a competitor? I could make a case that that CalE are sufficiently relaxed otherwise they would have bought in at the equity level or feel that they have such a good deal that they are relaxed about ownership. I suppose with a share price at this level my musings are a way of trying to figure out how long I may need to hold this before I can expect a decent return. Thoughts?

Well, last week I said that the BOD have much to prove and that they would probably attempt to balance any Harvey disappointment with other ‘positive’ news which is exactly what they done so no surprise there. On the upside, CalE have not turned down the opportunity to extend the option and we also know that the Administrator of LOG will have received an independent valuation of IOG assets which are allowing him some time to attempt to maximise the price for their 29.9% holding. I am certain that this block will be sold to either CalE or another competitor as a prelude to a deal. In the meantime some more grinding of teeth and the need to forget about IOG for a while as this could a little time to recover to 30p + hey ho!

I have been invested in BUR which was subject of the last major short attack by Muddy Waters. They issued a fierce and detailed rebuttal yet the market largely ignored the rebuttal. This is not a strong defence. Expect a volatile day today.

Carson Block was on CNBC live last week responding to Bogart’s interview a week earlier. He confirmed his short position and I agree that below 0.5% is not aggressive but his ‘followers’ may be joining the ‘concert’ party if you get my drift. All IMO.

ALGO’s dominate most markets nowadays with up to 80% of volume of many markets. Regulators are like rabbits in the headlines and as always will be late to the party with a warm bottle of Riesling. I am invested in a number of companies where ALGO’s know they can dominate pricing and when it gets a little more difficult they will move onto the next target. All that we insignificant PI’s can do is either to attempt to imitate the ALGO’s which is beyond my pay grade or believe in the fundamentals and stay patient which is what I will do.

So, Ken has been effusing about the surprising results from D. Not doubt the Board will be equally astonished at how cheap the shares now are. If their enthusiasm is genuine then why don’t they buy a big chunk of shares at these prices. I am waiting for the RNS!

IMO Bogart really needs to give the market an update on progress with the alleged market manipulation litigation. Is it progressing and if so, who are the defendants etc ? If this gets kicked into the long grass it will put further pressure on the share price. Also, if there are continued doubts in the market based on what Block is asserting vis a vis the Petersen asset and if some of it was bought by a fund linked to BUR which enabled a mark to market price which helped to boost earnings this may have to explained explained to the market. The Woodford overhang hang may be bought as a block but which fund would do so if they had lingering doubts about the current position. Lots of questions and head scratching for me.

My personal view is that FID may never happen as BLVN are not in control of the process. I sense that folks will sell out here now as we may see a bounce in the markets post election and there are countless opportunities elsewhere and can’t see why you would leave funds in here with no certainty of a positive outcome. COC have c****d up!

Smith-trader - you should be a detective!

I am under no illusion that our BOD have a huge amount to prove and have made statements this year to ‘appease the angry mob’ such as no dilution and better communications. Now, if Harvey ‘disappoints’ and comes in at the lower end of expectations, and the effect of that is that CalE decide not to exercise Harvey option expect a further dip. I expect however that the BOD will ensure that any adverse news is accompanied with positive news on new licences and/or development project progress, after all we are fully funded which is sometimes easy to forget with the LOG overhang. I am content to rely on CalE’s judgement and expertise as they have spent many long months on due diligence and have to accept that they see an opportunity which may deliver in a few years not a few months. Patience is not something I am blessed with in every stock but I have accepted that is essential here as I may regret selling out.

TLW - fully agree that this has been one hell of a trading opportunity and others like your good self have clearly taken advantage which is always good to hear. Investing at these levels could prove lucrative provided that the company is not forced into a heavily discounted cash raise and certainly if they can present better operational performance figures to the market in the new year. I recognise with such a large aggregate short position if/when momentum does change to the upside this could rise very quickly indeed. I would be comfortable in missing the early rise however if I felt confident that the company had turned the corner in trading, injection of new management etc etc. Until then I will tune in from time to time to see how things are shaping up. Good luck to all holders.

Did anyone listen to the investor call today? I decided that there were better things to do. Notwithstanding, if anyone did listen in it would be appreciated if you had a moment to post if there was indeed any small morsel to hang your hat on and provide a reason to invest more at these lowly levels. Thanks.

TLW - I have been here on and off for a few years but not a holder at the moment and not trading this either. The last trading update moved IQE into my 2nd watchlist ( 1st watchlist are likely investments just waiting for a signal, 2nd are those where I think they have something of value in this case, IP but I have real concerns about performance. ) Poor management, poor PR and trading losses putting pressure on cash, massive spare capacity hence disefficiencies and of course large short positions which are solid as a rock ( circa 10%) all suggest that there is limited upside and a potential cash raise or more debt IMO. Something has to change such as dynamic new management, new exciting clients, etc. Yes, always a potential takeover target for IP ( similar to ARM ) but not worth investing for that alone IMO. Pity as promised a lot and so far delivering very little.