focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Pennylots - I share your concerns. I invested following the initial MW report and read about the alleged spoofing and layering which took place over only a few hours causing untold damage to the share price not to mention undermine confidence. Even to a blind man this was off the scale in manipulation IMO. So, here we are months on from this, IMO, blatant market abuse and the company have to battle through the Courts with The Stock Exchange just to get to the point that they can hopefully identify the perpetrators yet even if they succeed that will only be the start of further litigation with no certainty of success or recompense as those responsible may be private individuals and not wealthy hedge funds. Yes, they may be banned from working in financial markets but that would be little comfort to the company and shareholders. So, it pains me to say this but the FCA are almost ignored by experienced market manipulators as they know how difficult it will be for anyone to succeed with action which will be worthwhile. Problem is that MW and the merry band of followers will continue to do what they do and as we have seen with NMC they will occasionally find breaches of corporate governance which will be ‘justification’ for them to defend against challenges by the regulators as ‘the market vigilantes’ in their own eyes. What a mess our market system is becoming. If the leading financial litigation entity falls short in this instance we are all doomed!!!!
Just back from a family skiing to trip to Chamonix in France. Every day we walked past a Superdry store and we rarely saw anyone in the store. Their competitors both ski/outdoor and global brands such as Columbia, Patagonia, Peak performance, North Face, Quicksilver, Ralph Lauren appeared to be busier across the week. The SDRY store was full of stock and in chatting with the assistant is seemed that they were struggling to compete and most probably the wrong store in the wrong location! It sure if this was a new store but JD needs to decide what sort of brand they are. My daughters are both in early 20’s and they baulked when I asked them if they ever go inside a SDRY store. Their response was an emphatic no so I am really struggling to see how Dunkerton can find the target market sweet spot again. My guess is that is cannot and they have had their best times.
Yes Alligator a £19m and change investment for LO which is a fair stake on a small cap even for them. I remain of the view that they see an opportunity of a buy-out here and know that any suitor will sew up over 50% of the equity by convincing just 2 shareholders to accept their offer which could be mid-20’s given the dire performance. I am still here for the same reasons hoping that either CalE or another player in the sector will acquire this company. It would put many of us out of our misery at least!
Well I will keep adding as the general market malaise and pressure on fossil fuels by political tree huggers provides the opportunity to buy at these bargain basement levels. By my calcs we could have $65m cash on the balance sheet today if payments have been made on time with further payments of $55m in 2020. Costs should be no more than $5m. We should receive an update on the recent FSO arrival this quarter and AT ANY TIME the company may surprise us with a more generous return of cash that the recent SBB. When will our share of OML18 start to return cash? We simply do not know but if you can afford to sit on your hands for a little while longer this could deliver terrific returns.
I bought some more of these today mcco breaking some of my own rules about % of my portfolio in small caps however with a growing cash pile and an improving outlook on potential revenue flows not to mention a return of cash through another tender offer or div, which I sense is not far away, I really cannot see much downside from here.
Yes I agree that based on fundamentals, we are significantly undervalued but many will know that confidence in management or lack thereof and indeed history often gets in the way. No need to repeat recent history other than to say that there have been some extremely tense times here and whilst our current management team can be applauded in the way in which they attracted CalE as a partner, we have not reached a point, as yet, in the project delivery cycle IMO which really shows how this project will be monetised. The banana skins of the past will haunt the company until such time as AH and the team show a clear commercial route by which they will generate revenues. When will Smith and Williamson cash out? This is also an unknown and whilst they have signaled that they see fair value somewhere north of here, this potential overhang is another factor in keeping the share price at current levels IMO. LO are in a strong position and we need their continued support as they have the power to move the price should they decide to book some profit. I have been in here for a couple of years and will not consider an exit as long as I think that CalE are fully engaged and we hit forthcoming milestones allowing us to attract new commercial partners and hopefully generate income from our pipeline. There is a short term buy-out opportunity given the gap between fair and current market value otherwise I remain patient albeit as frustrated as others on here.
I lost confidence and respect for Dunkerton when he continued to invest time and energy in his ‘Remain’ obsession in the weeks leading up to the GE which said it all about where his real focus was directed. Perhaps another hit on the share price today will wake him up.
So, LO acquired the large block recently from Burggraben, and not Spreadex as someone speculated, but the effect is the same. IMO, LO are positioning themselves in anticipation that at some point ( could take a little time) an offeror will make a move and the first call they make could be to LO and the second call to Smith and Williamson or vice versus. This would be a relatively easy deal to sew up with only a small % of remaining shareholders left to sweep up to reach 75%.
I agree as sadly this is typical of regional press with low-grade journalism. The digital press makes a mockery of old school business journalism which simply recycles days-old news. I do not expect the share price here to recover any time soon. Look at BUR whose management have comprehensively rebutted Muddy Waters claims many months ago yet the price is stuck in a fairly tight range significantly lower than the short attack levels. When multiples are fairly rich it takes a brave instititution to commit even more or indeed invest a new chunk whilst a dark cloud hangs over the company. I loathe these type of attacks which are carefully constructed and orchestrated with many connected parties involved but Of course they will all deny that they are connected. Fact is the price takes a big hit and it will take some considerable to recover. History tells us this and Muddy Waters and their crew know that.
I am also pretty irritated by these additional awards but as we all know, this is what happens all the time on AIM. My NY resolution is to start to reduce my exposure to AIM stocks if and when they spike as Boards can pretty much do what they want and get away with it. I get the need to align senior management but as I have said previously, the BOD have a heck of a lot to prove to shareholders ( so far they have destroyed rather than create value) and layering more options onto existing options when the share price is at this level is a somewhat of a slap in the face. So, our ‘yet to prove himself CEO’ only has to see the share price double from here and remember, just over a year ago we saw an average price of over 30p from June - October 2018, and he will earn £0.75m pre-tax just on this latest block of options with a 1p strike. As others have said, this may also enrich them in the event of a takeover option subject to the vesting conditions which we are not privy to. Time to step up to the plate chaps and prove to is that you are worthy of these almost nil cost give away options.
Malinky - no idea how long you have been invested here but if you have read,in detail, the rebuttals following the MW short attack and understand the specific accounting issues under challenge, you would know that the BUR board have responded extremely professionally and comprehensively to the claims made by Carson Block. IMO, the NM board response was much less convincing. I am much more interested in the Petersen litigation and whether there have been any ‘creative’ methods to establish fair value and the litigation which is underway against the alleged manipulators. Establishing clarity on these will determine my own strategy here.
Thanks for sharing McLean. The SBB has been underwhelming so far but much more positive times are indeed ahead of us. I have grown a few beards here but continue to believe that fundamental values of cash in hand and future riches will ensure that the share price pushes out of the current range. When it does these days of £25k ho hum will be long forgotten.
This is typical of so many pharmas or high tech companies with senior management who are technicians/ scientist types with limited commercial/technical expertise. They find themselves in the position as CEO but do not possess the skills. I abhor placings at huge discounts for working capital and whilst some of the monies will progress through further trials the only real winner here is Lombard Odier who have been playing this management team like a fiddle for the past couple of years. I will hang onto my investment to see if the so-called industry experts were right( we know who you are) but will not even contemplate averaging down as the BOD do not deserve any more money from me - indeed to be fair, they don’t need it as LO have them wrapped up like a kipper! Warrants at 40p looks fanciful to me at the moment. Ho hum!
Viticoltore - thanks and I agree that there is likely to be some corporate activity here at some point. Lets see if LO and others maintain the majority of their holdings. Modest director buys but always helps a little in my book.
Who will win this battle? As much as I dislike Carson Block’s smug and brutal approach to making money he has achieved a lot of success and he has a lot of support from other funds who hang onto his coat tails. The BOD here are taking a fairly relaxed approach to the claims he is making so far. Is that enough and will he simply go away? I suspect not so they may have to put some effort in to show with forensic analysis to reassure the market.
Still scratching my head on this. So, with LO, Administrator of LOG between them holding half of the equity give or take on a fully diluted basis. Add to that others such as Richard Griffiths and Burggraben and you have potentially 60%+ of the equity sown up. So, the question on my mind is whether the farm-out deal is the poison pill which protects IOG from a predator or is there sufficient value from the share of retained earnings to interest a competitor? I could make a case that that CalE are sufficiently relaxed otherwise they would have bought in at the equity level or feel that they have such a good deal that they are relaxed about ownership. I suppose with a share price at this level my musings are a way of trying to figure out how long I may need to hold this before I can expect a decent return. Thoughts?
Well, last week I said that the BOD have much to prove and that they would probably attempt to balance any Harvey disappointment with other ‘positive’ news which is exactly what they done so no surprise there. On the upside, CalE have not turned down the opportunity to extend the option and we also know that the Administrator of LOG will have received an independent valuation of IOG assets which are allowing him some time to attempt to maximise the price for their 29.9% holding. I am certain that this block will be sold to either CalE or another competitor as a prelude to a deal. In the meantime some more grinding of teeth and the need to forget about IOG for a while as this could a little time to recover to 30p + hey ho!
I have been invested in BUR which was subject of the last major short attack by Muddy Waters. They issued a fierce and detailed rebuttal yet the market largely ignored the rebuttal. This is not a strong defence. Expect a volatile day today.
Carson Block was on CNBC live last week responding to Bogart’s interview a week earlier. He confirmed his short position and I agree that below 0.5% is not aggressive but his ‘followers’ may be joining the ‘concert’ party if you get my drift. All IMO.