Member Info for bandit1

I am delighted with these results. As Shipscook1 pointed out, oil has stabilised after dropping when trading resumed last night. It may take a few days to settle down but the share price will most certainly recover some lost ground over this week and on a final OPEC++ decision to make significant production cuts returning $40 bbl we will start moving up to £15 in good order IMO,

If Putin is fronting this, expect Novak to be the sacrificial lamb. This is how these things work in Russia and other countries with all powerful leaders. Russia appear yet again to be at fault IMO as they have resisted recent production cuts with their typical one dimensional tough-man approach to every negotiation and have pushed MBS too far a few weeks ago. Putin has his back against the wall with Russian populous increasingly unhappy about the way he is handling matters. He will want a deal for economic and internal political reasons leaving Novak’s reputation tarnished but who cares. As to what price this opens tomorrow am, this does not really concern me too much apart from an opportunistic trade if the markets look right as my main investment position is long and I feel very comfortable with that until the oil and general market stabilises. For the record I do expect a drop by the MM’s on open and across the day in lieu of any public statements so may seek short term opportunities along the way. An exciting share to be invested in at these levels as the downside is modest but the upside is very significant all IMO.

IMO the apparent value distortion here can be fully justified by the poor way in which Cross runs this company. The share price pre-virus and pre MBS/Putin arm wrestle was the market reflecting that all the way down from £1 not too long ago. This will obviously bounce if a production cut is agreed ( rising tide floats all boats) but as for giving poor and loyal shareholders any sort of return on their investment if you have been in for a few years I just cannot see it. When there are alternative opportunities in the sector like Rockrose ( RRE) with cash on balance sheet excluding decom costs reflecting a share value of £20 + yet RRE closed Friday at less than £8 you can see why new money will not come here any time soon. All IMO and full disclosure I have just taken a chunky stake in RRE.

In reading the detail I have invested more here today this morning. Remote working for litigation lawyers is a breeze and it seems that there is some good news on the way with case successes. Cash is not a problem so looks to me that this share price should build from here. I remain irritated that no progress has been made on the potential action against spoofing and layering and getting the names from LSE but that may come in the fullness of time. A great opportunity to buy-in as the financial results will be presented in a different way providing greater transparency and hopefully this will begin to build confidence again in a market leader. As Bogart reminds us, Covid-19 and the draconian steps taken around the world has impacted Society in a multitude of negative ways and some will seek redress when this pandemic runs its course. Bur is in an ideal position to benefit from this IMO.

Ammu - either the market has got this one completely wrong or there are problems that some know about but no-one on here does! I am a fairly new shareholder but hold a decent position in IOG and started acquiring here around £12 all the way down to almost £5 and I am very happy indeed with my position here. At some point this year ( impossible to tell when) the price of oil will rebound sharply as MBS and Putin finish their arm wrestling contest and someone mediates a face-saving compromise between them. When this happens this will power forward towards £15 and beyond dependent on any corporate activity announced along the way. Markets are all over the place and valuation metrics have been thrown in the bin. So many great opportunities to acquire solid assets at basement prices in most sectors you just need to have free cash to invest and a little courage.

Yes indeed some light relief amongst the doom and gloom! Hockey is teasing us with his comments about Harvey and Redwell hinting that the further technical work may produce better than expected results post the initial estimates and that CalE may become involved at least that is what the optimist may interpret. Even though the option expired a new deal can be struck with an injection of more cash into IOG. The pessimist will already be in the Tesco queue waiting to be more loo rolls......

After RRE’s failed attempt last year to acquire IOG for 20p I did some research and put it on my watchlist as I liked what I saw. I decided to buy a chunk on Monday as they have dropped like a stone along with so many others despite sitting on a cash pile of circa £270m and no debt. The CEO was interviewed today by Malcy and there are some very useful hints in the piece about potential new targets. They want to acquire gas assets to complement their oil portfolio and they like the Southern North Sea! They could buy us at a 100% premium for cash if the wanted to. Probably not tomorrow or next month but when the dust settles from Covid-19 hysteria and the Putin/MBS arm wrestle Austin will see what looks attractive. I expect he wants their paper back up at £20 first to reflect the cash on their balance sheet but one never knows. CalE will be aware of this so perhaps they may act beforehand to give us a much needed boost.

https://www.malcysblog.com/2020/03/core-finance-interview-andrew-austin-executive-chairman-of-rockrose-energy/

Supply chain issues in the East on top of a tired brand, a founder who has returned to a mess which will take a lot of sorting out, and most likely a founder who no longer has the appetite, dedication, energy and flair to turn the Brand around. Often when someone returns to a company, football club etc having achieved success there in the past it rarely goes as well as before. Every time I look at this company on my watchlist I cannot convince myself of any reason to jump back in. This was one of my most successful shares 10 years ago. Tempting as it is to see value at these levels, if a brand has lost its appeal whilst competition have upped their game and are more in tune with current menswear trends and their customer base, what will stop the rot? I’m afraid I am struggling to find an answer.

A very specific date of 27th Feb was given as the date by which time CalE will decide whether they should exercise their option on Redwell-Harvey farm-in. Will they do this and announce soon? Notwithstanding the market volatility I would like AH to keep shareholders informed in good time given historical tardiness.

I should have added that CalE have only 10 days to decide whether they take up the Harvey option and pay another £20m. This could be instructive either way.

LO will not be buying on behalf of others ( concert party) if that would mean they breach 30% as that would require a Rule 9 mandatory offer under The Takeover Code. They are smart and ruthless operators and as I have said previously are sweeping up shares hence there is no drop on the bid over months despite steady selling. I believe they are convinced that there is so much value in IOG not reflected in price this is a punt worth taking. They are sitting on a very healthy profit already based on their participation in ‘fire sale’ raises and are waiting for the company to get their act together and either do some form of deal with CalE or wait for others to agitate for true value to show its face here. Smith and Williamson are doing the same as far as I can see but of course everyone could be wrong. Just need to wait for news now.

Pennylots - I share your concerns. I invested following the initial MW report and read about the alleged spoofing and layering which took place over only a few hours causing untold damage to the share price not to mention undermine confidence. Even to a blind man this was off the scale in manipulation IMO. So, here we are months on from this, IMO, blatant market abuse and the company have to battle through the Courts with The Stock Exchange just to get to the point that they can hopefully identify the perpetrators yet even if they succeed that will only be the start of further litigation with no certainty of success or recompense as those responsible may be private individuals and not wealthy hedge funds. Yes, they may be banned from working in financial markets but that would be little comfort to the company and shareholders. So, it pains me to say this but the FCA are almost ignored by experienced market manipulators as they know how difficult it will be for anyone to succeed with action which will be worthwhile. Problem is that MW and the merry band of followers will continue to do what they do and as we have seen with NMC they will occasionally find breaches of corporate governance which will be ‘justification’ for them to defend against challenges by the regulators as ‘the market vigilantes’ in their own eyes. What a mess our market system is becoming. If the leading financial litigation entity falls short in this instance we are all doomed!!!!

Just back from a family skiing to trip to Chamonix in France. Every day we walked past a Superdry store and we rarely saw anyone in the store. Their competitors both ski/outdoor and global brands such as Columbia, Patagonia, Peak performance, North Face, Quicksilver, Ralph Lauren appeared to be busier across the week. The SDRY store was full of stock and in chatting with the assistant is seemed that they were struggling to compete and most probably the wrong store in the wrong location! It sure if this was a new store but JD needs to decide what sort of brand they are. My daughters are both in early 20’s and they baulked when I asked them if they ever go inside a SDRY store. Their response was an emphatic no so I am really struggling to see how Dunkerton can find the target market sweet spot again. My guess is that is cannot and they have had their best times.

Someone is trying hard to drop this further, I wonder why that is? We could do with an announcement here to clear out the trolls and naysayers once and for all.

Yes Alligator a £19m and change investment for LO which is a fair stake on a small cap even for them. I remain of the view that they see an opportunity of a buy-out here and know that any suitor will sew up over 50% of the equity by convincing just 2 shareholders to accept their offer which could be mid-20’s given the dire performance. I am still here for the same reasons hoping that either CalE or another player in the sector will acquire this company. It would put many of us out of our misery at least!

Well I will keep adding as the general market malaise and pressure on fossil fuels by political tree huggers provides the opportunity to buy at these bargain basement levels. By my calcs we could have $65m cash on the balance sheet today if payments have been made on time with further payments of $55m in 2020. Costs should be no more than $5m. We should receive an update on the recent FSO arrival this quarter and AT ANY TIME the company may surprise us with a more generous return of cash that the recent SBB. When will our share of OML18 start to return cash? We simply do not know but if you can afford to sit on your hands for a little while longer this could deliver terrific returns.

I bought some more of these today mcco breaking some of my own rules about % of my portfolio in small caps however with a growing cash pile and an improving outlook on potential revenue flows not to mention a return of cash through another tender offer or div, which I sense is not far away, I really cannot see much downside from here.

Yes I agree that based on fundamentals, we are significantly undervalued but many will know that confidence in management or lack thereof and indeed history often gets in the way. No need to repeat recent history other than to say that there have been some extremely tense times here and whilst our current management team can be applauded in the way in which they attracted CalE as a partner, we have not reached a point, as yet, in the project delivery cycle IMO which really shows how this project will be monetised. The banana skins of the past will haunt the company until such time as AH and the team show a clear commercial route by which they will generate revenues. When will Smith and Williamson cash out? This is also an unknown and whilst they have signaled that they see fair value somewhere north of here, this potential overhang is another factor in keeping the share price at current levels IMO. LO are in a strong position and we need their continued support as they have the power to move the price should they decide to book some profit. I have been in here for a couple of years and will not consider an exit as long as I think that CalE are fully engaged and we hit forthcoming milestones allowing us to attract new commercial partners and hopefully generate income from our pipeline. There is a short term buy-out opportunity given the gap between fair and current market value otherwise I remain patient albeit as frustrated as others on here.

I lost confidence and respect for Dunkerton when he continued to invest time and energy in his ‘Remain’ obsession in the weeks leading up to the GE which said it all about where his real focus was directed. Perhaps another hit on the share price today will wake him up.

So, LO acquired the large block recently from Burggraben, and not Spreadex as someone speculated, but the effect is the same. IMO, LO are positioning themselves in anticipation that at some point ( could take a little time) an offeror will make a move and the first call they make could be to LO and the second call to Smith and Williamson or vice versus. This would be a relatively easy deal to sew up with only a small % of remaining shareholders left to sweep up to reach 75%.