Yes I agree that based on fundamentals, we are significantly undervalued but many will know that confidence in management or lack thereof and indeed history often gets in the way. No need to repeat recent history other than to say that there have been some extremely tense times here and whilst our current management team can be applauded in the way in which they attracted CalE as a partner, we have not reached a point, as yet, in the project delivery cycle IMO which really shows how this project will be monetised. The banana skins of the past will haunt the company until such time as AH and the team show a clear commercial route by which they will generate revenues. When will Smith and Williamson cash out? This is also an unknown and whilst they have signaled that they see fair value somewhere north of here, this potential overhang is another factor in keeping the share price at current levels IMO. LO are in a strong position and we need their continued support as they have the power to move the price should they decide to book some profit. I have been in here for a couple of years and will not consider an exit as long as I think that CalE are fully engaged and we hit forthcoming milestones allowing us to attract new commercial partners and hopefully generate income from our pipeline. There is a short term buy-out opportunity given the gap between fair and current market value otherwise I remain patient albeit as frustrated as others on here.
I lost confidence and respect for Dunkerton when he continued to invest time and energy in his ‘Remain’ obsession in the weeks leading up to the GE which said it all about where his real focus was directed. Perhaps another hit on the share price today will wake him up.
So, LO acquired the large block recently from Burggraben, and not Spreadex as someone speculated, but the effect is the same. IMO, LO are positioning themselves in anticipation that at some point ( could take a little time) an offeror will make a move and the first call they make could be to LO and the second call to Smith and Williamson or vice versus. This would be a relatively easy deal to sew up with only a small % of remaining shareholders left to sweep up to reach 75%.
There are a significant number of hugely ignorant posters on here who know almost nothing about how the markets work. I have filtered most of them hopefully. There will probably be an RNS before the markets open tomorrow describing the outcome of the book build. Do you seriously think they would announce this transaction without committed buyers? LSE is becoming a cesspit for beer and curry traders living in their squalid bedsits who will say almost anything without much thought and post them on here with limited oversight hoping it may help their £2 a point spread bet. Now, the market makers will of course do whatever they can to try to make a turn tomorrow but ultimately the share price will find its level based on trading activity in the short term. Now, if you are here for more than a few days you may be a little irritated that this transaction has been chosen at this time but as others have said the good news is that institutions will sweep up these shares at a decent price meaning that there will be less for these beer and curry traders to get their grubby hands on. Furthermore, I would hope that the BOD start to buy shares back at a much keener pace than we have seen so far especially if we see a drop tomorrow. What a bunch of jokers on here!
I agree as sadly this is typical of regional press with low-grade journalism. The digital press makes a mockery of old school business journalism which simply recycles days-old news. I do not expect the share price here to recover any time soon. Look at BUR whose management have comprehensively rebutted Muddy Waters claims many months ago yet the price is stuck in a fairly tight range significantly lower than the short attack levels. When multiples are fairly rich it takes a brave instititution to commit even more or indeed invest a new chunk whilst a dark cloud hangs over the company. I loathe these type of attacks which are carefully constructed and orchestrated with many connected parties involved but Of course they will all deny that they are connected. Fact is the price takes a big hit and it will take some considerable to recover. History tells us this and Muddy Waters and their crew know that.
There have never been any significant short positions on GGP but some like to comment speculating on the beer and curry spreadbetters. What I see here and expect to see in coming weeks is the serious investors wading in. They are waiting for those who want to take 10% and 20% profit and will sweep them up gladly. This is what this share needs as too many shares in fickle hands at the moment. This will change in 2020 I have no doubt.
I am also pretty irritated by these additional awards but as we all know, this is what happens all the time on AIM. My NY resolution is to start to reduce my exposure to AIM stocks if and when they spike as Boards can pretty much do what they want and get away with it. I get the need to align senior management but as I have said previously, the BOD have a heck of a lot to prove to shareholders ( so far they have destroyed rather than create value) and layering more options onto existing options when the share price is at this level is a somewhat of a slap in the face. So, our ‘yet to prove himself CEO’ only has to see the share price double from here and remember, just over a year ago we saw an average price of over 30p from June - October 2018, and he will earn £0.75m pre-tax just on this latest block of options with a 1p strike. As others have said, this may also enrich them in the event of a takeover option subject to the vesting conditions which we are not privy to. Time to step up to the plate chaps and prove to is that you are worthy of these almost nil cost give away options.
Malinky - no idea how long you have been invested here but if you have read,in detail, the rebuttals following the MW short attack and understand the specific accounting issues under challenge, you would know that the BUR board have responded extremely professionally and comprehensively to the claims made by Carson Block. IMO, the NM board response was much less convincing. I am much more interested in the Petersen litigation and whether there have been any ‘creative’ methods to establish fair value and the litigation which is underway against the alleged manipulators. Establishing clarity on these will determine my own strategy here.
Thanks for sharing McLean. The SBB has been underwhelming so far but much more positive times are indeed ahead of us. I have grown a few beards here but continue to believe that fundamental values of cash in hand and future riches will ensure that the share price pushes out of the current range. When it does these days of £25k ho hum will be long forgotten.
This is typical of so many pharmas or high tech companies with senior management who are technicians/ scientist types with limited commercial/technical expertise. They find themselves in the position as CEO but do not possess the skills. I abhor placings at huge discounts for working capital and whilst some of the monies will progress through further trials the only real winner here is Lombard Odier who have been playing this management team like a fiddle for the past couple of years. I will hang onto my investment to see if the so-called industry experts were right( we know who you are) but will not even contemplate averaging down as the BOD do not deserve any more money from me - indeed to be fair, they don’t need it as LO have them wrapped up like a kipper! Warrants at 40p looks fanciful to me at the moment. Ho hum!
Viticoltore - thanks and I agree that there is likely to be some corporate activity here at some point. Lets see if LO and others maintain the majority of their holdings. Modest director buys but always helps a little in my book.
Who will win this battle? As much as I dislike Carson Block’s smug and brutal approach to making money he has achieved a lot of success and he has a lot of support from other funds who hang onto his coat tails. The BOD here are taking a fairly relaxed approach to the claims he is making so far. Is that enough and will he simply go away? I suspect not so they may have to put some effort in to show with forensic analysis to reassure the market.
Still scratching my head on this. So, with LO, Administrator of LOG between them holding half of the equity give or take on a fully diluted basis. Add to that others such as Richard Griffiths and Burggraben and you have potentially 60%+ of the equity sown up. So, the question on my mind is whether the farm-out deal is the poison pill which protects IOG from a predator or is there sufficient value from the share of retained earnings to interest a competitor? I could make a case that that CalE are sufficiently relaxed otherwise they would have bought in at the equity level or feel that they have such a good deal that they are relaxed about ownership. I suppose with a share price at this level my musings are a way of trying to figure out how long I may need to hold this before I can expect a decent return. Thoughts?
Well, last week I said that the BOD have much to prove and that they would probably attempt to balance any Harvey disappointment with other ‘positive’ news which is exactly what they done so no surprise there. On the upside, CalE have not turned down the opportunity to extend the option and we also know that the Administrator of LOG will have received an independent valuation of IOG assets which are allowing him some time to attempt to maximise the price for their 29.9% holding. I am certain that this block will be sold to either CalE or another competitor as a prelude to a deal. In the meantime some more grinding of teeth and the need to forget about IOG for a while as this could a little time to recover to 30p + hey ho!
I have been invested in BUR which was subject of the last major short attack by Muddy Waters. They issued a fierce and detailed rebuttal yet the market largely ignored the rebuttal. This is not a strong defence. Expect a volatile day today.
Carson Block was on CNBC live last week responding to Bogart’s interview a week earlier. He confirmed his short position and I agree that below 0.5% is not aggressive but his ‘followers’ may be joining the ‘concert’ party if you get my drift. All IMO.
ALGO’s dominate most markets nowadays with up to 80% of volume of many markets. Regulators are like rabbits in the headlines and as always will be late to the party with a warm bottle of Riesling. I am invested in a number of companies where ALGO’s know they can dominate pricing and when it gets a little more difficult they will move onto the next target. All that we insignificant PI’s can do is either to attempt to imitate the ALGO’s which is beyond my pay grade or believe in the fundamentals and stay patient which is what I will do.
So, Ken has been effusing about the surprising results from D. Not doubt the Board will be equally astonished at how cheap the shares now are. If their enthusiasm is genuine then why don’t they buy a big chunk of shares at these prices. I am waiting for the RNS!
IMO Bogart really needs to give the market an update on progress with the alleged market manipulation litigation. Is it progressing and if so, who are the defendants etc ? If this gets kicked into the long grass it will put further pressure on the share price. Also, if there are continued doubts in the market based on what Block is asserting vis a vis the Petersen asset and if some of it was bought by a fund linked to BUR which enabled a mark to market price which helped to boost earnings this may have to explained explained to the market. The Woodford overhang hang may be bought as a block but which fund would do so if they had lingering doubts about the current position. Lots of questions and head scratching for me.
My personal view is that FID may never happen as BLVN are not in control of the process. I sense that folks will sell out here now as we may see a bounce in the markets post election and there are countless opportunities elsewhere and can’t see why you would leave funds in here with no certainty of a positive outcome. COC have c****d up!