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20-year trader. Perhaps you could produce some reliable evidence for your numbers which look somewhat spurious. Anyone could produce assumptions for the US market ( when launched) showing a gradual build up to millions of sales pa. If they did they would be met with the same ho hum and quite rightly too. Unfortunately we all have to wait patiently for our very shy Finance Director to do what she is paid to do which is to develop realistic forecasts of future sales based on worst, base and best case assumptions based on early sales in UK and Europe and update these as the repeat sales trends become evident. I would be concerned if she has not done this internally. Part of her role and that of JB is to interact with Brokers and institutions and shareholders to tell the story about Eroxon and what is possible within the bounds of what is allowed under forward looking statements. It is called investor relations. Good that you are adding to your holding despite your concerns about sales prospects. I am hopeful about our prospects despite limited, reliable financials being made available so in some ways understand why you are scrambling around trying to make sense of this. The market will react when the company decides to share information and not before.
These days the market appears completely disinterested in trying to establish fair value and has become so short term it is no wonder that many experienced investors have switched to trading a large chunk of their capital rather than buying and holding. Given that market makers are making so little money these days they appear obsessed with getting the next trade and prices are all over the place searching for stops and whatever volume they can get their hands on. Apart from the obvious risk of a cheap takeover there are countless decent small caps on the UK markets trading on modest multiples way below 5 and 10 year averages. Some will fail of course but most will survive and prosper and the brave will make a lot of money. I remain of the view that if our Chairman is happy to continue to buy with his own cash and he has more experience of how to value a company in his little finger than most of the market spivs have, that is a clear signal to me to join him.
Robld - Agreed, in fact some may say that you put out obtuse and unhelpful announcements which will obviously hit the share price…….and then you issue nil cost options to all the team at a 12-month low. Not that I would say that of course but most are probably thinking that. Time to move over and hire some savvy executives who understand the market, know what information to supply to the market. We are beginning to look a little amateurish. This is a real pity just at a time when the company has developed a product which has terrific potential.
Nil cost options for newcomers as a golden hello is acceptable, not for directors who have been around for a while. Come on JB you just don’t get it. This market will punish you for not setting some form of stretching targets. Furthermore, our FD needs to prove her worth and start to produce compelling financial data based on the commercial deals we are signing and start to inform the market as that is what will move the needle in the short term and stop the constant slide. I have suggested before that we probably need to bring some more experienced executives into the fold as perhaps our top team made be a little out of their depth as we move from an R&D outfit to a producer. Different skill sets and expectations. If you award yourself soft options you better deliver as shareholders will not accept average performance but that should be obvious.
The publication of an updated MRE has been the subject of much discussion, speculation and obfuscation. SD has been ‘ forced’ to delay publishing our own updated version for reasons which he has explained and it may or may not be issued before the end of this calendar year, time will tell. For my part, I am keen to understand whether there is a real chance of a proper partnership developing when Newmont are in the driving seat. I don’t know but remain hopeful so that we can continue at a pace and reach the ore body asap and start producing. If Newmont really like the asset it would be good to know…..please! I would like to see an updated MRE as it should have been produced a year ago and indeed would have IMO if the partnership was strong but also feel as others do that it would be overlooked right now until we know if Newmont want 70% of Havieron.
I am in no doubt that however SD dresses it up, our relationship with NCM during Sandeep’s time started positively then took a serious nosedive when they had an agenda which was damaging to our future existence. The partnership IMO changed significantly around the 5% option negotiation ( SD maintains diplomacy on this) and has damaged us and our share price ever since. Palmer and his team will be acutely aware of this history from the DD process and numerous discussions he and his bid team has had with NCM executives. So, if they like the asset, believe it has the makings of a Tier 1 when all the data has been published, they will want to start afresh and that will begin with an updated MRE which I would like to see published together and not just by us. That would send a positive message would it not? Palmer and his team will also know that we have some very attractive tenements including EG of course so continuing to find gold and copper in a great jurisdiction must be an attractive by-product from developing a good relationship with us.
On the other hand should Palmer decide we are not in their future plans he will develop a plan of action which will enable them to sell their 70% of Hav and Telfer to the highest bidder. We are in a good position with Wyloo’s backing but I suspect that others may show interest too. Palmer has stated publicly that he is in no rush to decide which assets he will divest and which he will keep but SD may be hoping that by emphasing the importance to us that we have more up to date information on Hav in the public domain which has been purposely held back by NCM, this may draw Palmer out in some way.
The worst outcome IMO is if Palmer continues to do or say nothing for an extended period. Somehow I feel however that when he is ‘signing the cheques’ each month on the mine development he will want to allocate capital to those projects he will retain.
It is at times like these that our highly respected and connected Board members need to justify their position and get in front of Palmer and his top team and show them what could be possible g
With the 2 clowns running the show here I very much doubt that some people woke up on a Monday morning and thought, I think I will risk a punt on OMI regardless of the lowly price. Why would you? I suspect that there will be an RNS shortly with little to shout about on one of our vanity projects that with keep the clowns in paid employment for another 2 years ahead of the final equity raise at a pittance. Like many others I have written off a big investment here and don’t expect much, if anything, in return. In some ways I would rather lose the lot that see our 2 clowns make any more money here.
Well the only surprise with this announcement for me is that it was not made many months ago. As always OF tries very hard to create highly complex transactions and fails to pull them off. I wonder if Toscafund have said enough is enough. It would not surprise me if OF disappears in the not too distant future either. Another reverse another AIM document and meantime the cheerleaders ( you know who you are) will find a positive, forever in denial. I feel sorry for those small shareholders who did not exit when they had a chance as this has all the hallmarks of being taken private, a point I made a few years ago only to be shouted down by the rose tinted crew with an agenda. Another AIM failure to add to the long list.
Everyonesawinner - yes indeed the poor market makers are struggling just look at Winterfloods results recently in which they winge about low volume and that they are struggling to make ends meet. They will try every trick in the book by searching for stops to selling between market makers by dropping the bid to fill orders to dropping the bid to allow mates cover shorts. And for balance in a rising market with the opposite sentiment that we see in the current climate they do they have another toolkit to acquire volume to make ends meet. I could go on and yet we still get wags on these boards, with no market knowledge, saying that there is no manipulation ( cough cough) so don’t think anyone will be feeling sorry for the poor market makers. I spent many years in the markets and know exactly what goes on and a lot of it is not pretty so having belief in your investment by DYOR is the only way to avoid the noise and the games. Usually we see the UT below mid as shorters use direct market access at auction to sell at the most recent lows so this is a rare treat today!
Yes it does seem that there are countless attractive small caps which are struggling despite promising potential. Combination of very poor sentiment, limited PI interest and low volume and the odd seller. Not convinced that there is a lot of selling and certainly not LO who would have to report moving through each threshold. They know what they are sitting on here and by taking a punt in the early days they will fully expect to reap the rewards in years to come whether that is some form of corporate action or the generation of steadily increasing profits over a few years which will transform the share price. Important to ride out the storm to make money in these markets. Market makers are struggling to make money ( see Winterfloods results) which tells the story. The Futura is bright!
At last some positive news here. The acquisition will in time prove its worth I am sure. Like so many other small caps there is not much cheer and at times like this and you need patience and liquidity to be able to wait for better economic times which will come around again - it always does.
Yes granular detail on sales is important but it not the only thing that matters as we have new launches around the world, updates on Haleon’s plans for the US and a launch timetable for the world’s biggest market would be nice. The news this morning is terrific but just part of the overall puzzle which should put a floor on the share price if one follows logic but this is AIM. New traders will be buying this am no doubt along with some longer term holders seeing how cheap this is a 45p. A series of regular commercial updates would be good to allow some positive momentum to develop rather than this stop start pattern.
Krull - it is frustrating if you are stopped out but one assumes that you placed the stop at that level for a reason and that you had a clear strategy. I have never placed a stop on an AIM share as the market makers and their cohorts make their money by collecting shares ‘cheaply’ and when they have enough the price will be walked back up. That is why traders love AIM as they know what is going on and take advantage of it. I have been in the markets for a very long time and know that professional teams working together know how to ‘play the game’. When you have a company that has great prospects like FUM on the cusp of something exciting, there is quite an incentive to drive the stock down after news in the hope that you can collect cheaply before the next news. I use these ‘events’ as an opportunity to buy more and just did to add to my investment and will continue to do so. Play them at their own game if you have the liquidity to do so. Haleon thinks that FUM will do very well in the US apparently and you might think that they know their market a lot better than any spiv.
Well, I think that SD has been saving up his announcements to release this week ahead of the THM. And, cynically, he will hope that this takes the heat out of the RNS yesterday with very soft performance targets which disappointed me. This is good news however and many of us lth’s have been keen to see progress here as we have historical data to guide us suggesting that we could see a high probability of some exciting drill results on a 100% owned tenement in the near term. One thing for sure is that if you award yourselves big incentive opportunities you need to step up and deliver. Let’s hope they can start to do this.
Apart from Lombard Odier ( 28.5%) there are no other institutions with significant holdings so the PI base is large. This is why LO will have a big say in any future approach as their votes are essential for a successful deal to get over the line. As always with small caps there will be people who trade this for 10% gains but for those who have been around the market for some time will tell you, the real gains are made, assuming that you have the liquidity, by picking stocks which are unloved/ under the radar and holding them until the ‘market’ wakes up to the potential. The UK market is unloved almost across the board with a small tech sector and challenging economic and political backdrop atm. FUM is under the radar and I would like to see some new and experienced commercial people join the company to support the management team as they grow. The BofE were very slow to react to inflation despite the signs being obvious to a 16-economics pupil and our lack of energy security has forced us to buy expensive energy etc etc. This has affecting all UK listed companies.
This will be sorted out in due course and money will return to UK stocks and those which have a product which is somewhat differentiated and is promoted skillfully, will do very well. This is still early days and the ‘ show me, don’t tell me’ attitude in the markets and the regular sales for the 10% crew when it rises above 50p is enough to keep it down, for now. I have a longer term horizon and a price target of 150p which could be achieved in a couple of years based on a good US launch. Just imagine if we are selling 5m units p.a. in a few years time which is quite possible and the share price will be multiples of where we are today if we continue to exist as an independent, which IMO is very unlikely.
Terrific proactive interview and I do like the fact that JB is now ‘ shouting from the rooftops’ as the blood, sweat and tears of Pharma development and the associated risks are in the rear view mirror for Med 3000/ Eroxon. I was previously critical of JB’s downbeat demeanor but I am delighted that he now feels he can, publicly, bask in the glory of revenue generation and a very healthy cash position so we have no concerns about dilution into the future. Whether new innovations such as promoting for the female market are likely, time will tell but the management team are not sitting around twiddling their thumbs with numerous new commercial deals and a US launch to think about in coming months. Must be good fun going to work atm and in time the market will catch-up but for now we can sit back and look forward to what I hope will be regular updates on the commercials deals, patent extension when agreed and the US launch timescales etc. Finally, I sense that they were cautious in giving forward guidance ( excluding US which is significant) which IMO is eminently sensible as the real money to be made as a shareholder will not be this week or next week but after a year or two of increasing revenue and the establishment of Eroxon as a worthy competitor to Viagra and Cialis and an innovator in the growing sexual health markets across the world. In the meantime if someone wants to buy us then they will have to sweet talk Lombard Odier and I suspect that they are as excited as we are about the potential here so in the event that we do attract interest they will drive a hard bargain, that, I have no doubt. The Futura is bright!
Well I am a much happier man this morning after reading this RNS. The savage drop from 9p to 6p based on the piece in the Aus rag and the increase in trolls on here made me, like so many other lth’s very frustrated indeed. Many PI’s ( including myself) have written to SD expressing deep concerns about a raise just to appease new Aus funds (at a rock bottom price) and whilst a raise to finance a revenue generating asset purchase may have been acceptable, that does not appear to have been on the cards or perhaps shelved. I think the GGP BOD read the mood music and could not risk putting a new proposal out for a vote and not receiving the required support but these are just my own musings.
It is also crystal clear to me that the relationship with Newcrest has deteriorated badly hence the hook up with Rio. Newmont will shortly have the opportunity to either put things back on a proper collaborative footing or divest the assets ( Telfer and 70% Hav) which provides us with a terrific opportunity. In Newmont new shoes, if they really like Hav and the prospects in the region they may want to get closer to GGP and not push us away into the hands of other majors, time will tell. I do hope that our experienced Board will have had conversations with senior executives at Newmont in their network so that the decision makers are aware of the developments which took place over the last 12 months under SB’s tenure as I am in the camp which would prefer that we take things steadily from new MRE, FS, DTM then we would fund our 30% share of ongoing costs to start producing from generating free cash flow. In short order we could comfortably pay down debt, fund exploration on other jointly and 100% owned assets over the next year or two and list on ASX from a position of strength rather than weakness.
Let’s see what happens next as it is difficult to calls things accurately here but the updated MRE is coming before year end and probably after the takeover of NCM so let that be the catalyst for a recovery in our fortunes after a bruising couple of years.
Whether it was Wyloo who instigated this option or the BOD themselves or perhaps the new Aus investors were playing hardball for a heavily discounted placing given market conditions, we will probably never know but I am certain that this is the right decision for existing shareholders at this time
Folks here need to be a little circumspect about what this geezer BelgianBert posts on here. I have filtered him today. In April he produced totally random sales figures suggesting a target of £1.50 then he declared his strategy of selling on the FDA news. In June he spouted another target of £1.20 based on random sales figures. Today he suggests that the company is worth only £7m based on even more random sales and margin numbers plucked out of thin air. Now, we can all produce number out of thin air, assume modest operating costs, apply an industry multiple and come up with a totally meaningless figure. More knowledgable investors will attribute some IP value, will forecast potential market share %’s in the markets we are about to enter over a period of years and produce a range of scenarios just like the brokers have done and importantly what our Belgian friend has failed to do. Funny that. Best to ignore folks as his musings are not worth reading. And yes, you have guessed it he is probably not invested atm and is waiting to get in as low as possible and will post nonsense hoping to help his cause. Sad but this goes on every day and hopefully most can see it a mile off. Hence I have filtered so don’t have to read his reply.
During my corporate life I was involved in a number of JV’s including negotiating the contracts and sitting on committees thereafter. What I observe from our JV with Newcrest is that SD appears totally detached from any of the important decisions and appears to have to react to them when he sees the public announcement. Now if this is the case this is obviously not how the vast majority of JV’s work or should work in practice as ideally it should be a true partnership with regular discussion and debate with the stronger partner having the final say on points of difference in accordance with the JV agreement usually aligned with the larger holding. There would often be an agreed communication strategy even when they were differences to show a united front. We have seen none of this. SD talks about his desire for alignment but it is clear to all that this is not happening! So, I can only conclude that SD has tried but failed to influence Newcrest since his arrival but will not allow his failure and potential frustration, to show in public. This is clearly highly professional and controlled behaviour with a long game in mind but it can appear that he is not being tough enough to shareholders looking in from the outside with the minimum of information as to what is going on behind the scenes.
He has surrounded himself with very capable and experienced corporate people so is not short of wisdom to navigate which has been a highly complex set of challenges. No-one on here can be sure if he is playing the right game here ( time will tell) and indeed he has almost no control of the major decisions so we have no choice, if we are true lth’s, to trust that our Board are doing the best for us as shareholders however frustrating that feels at the moment. There will be key decisions for all shareholders to take in the coming months which we can hopefully vote on and that is the time to exercise your right if you feel that the proposals presented are not in your best interests. I will certainly expect all historical data on drill results to published in an updated MRE before I back any major decision. To do otherwise would be nonsensical so I expect the Board to do the right thing and allow the markets to properly recognize what the company has achieved over the past 18 months. Perhaps we are waiting for the vote, perhaps not, but to consciously withhold historic drilling data which the market uses to attribute value to explorers like GGP, stinks.
One thing I am certain about is that SD will never allow himself to be locked into another JV agreement with a partner ( choose your partner carefully) who gives him almost no wriggle room and leaves him scraping around trying to make the best out of a difficult situation.
I do think this will end well as the Havieron asset and land holdings are just too attractive and we have a lot of intellectual property on our side but what shape this will take, no-one knows. Keep the faith.
Only Fanning would find people like this to deal with. You couldn’t design a more obtuse website if you tried. Next there will be a new potential lender with ESG credentials to balance the core business of oil production, Bill and Ben the flower pot men! You could not make this stuff up. Tosca has belt and braces just in case this all goes Pete Tong. And meanwhile the share is still suspended with no prospect of a return from suspension any time soon. Tick tock……..