Member Info for bandit1

A placing @ 24% discount and warrants at 4.4p is exactly what I expect from an extremely weak management team to raise a measly £500k. As folks will know the dynamic duo will burn through this quicker than you can say ‘ out of their depth’. All those who have been buying these past few weeks in anticipation of an announcement of a new JV may reflect upon the fact that we have a couple of clowns running the show here who create 3 vanity projects to keep themselves busy then run of cash requiring a raise a rock bottom. Well done they deserve some cheap options as a reward for ongoing failure.

We have an increasingly active Algo which was responsible for the sharp jump yesterday and the sharp drop today. I wonder who is behind this. Certainly shows increasing interest in this stock with a lot of news in the pipeline.

81Lucky - you are of course correct in what you say. An ex-US President once said that there were few things more important in life than good communication. In my own experience the best CEO’s are often also the best communicators. Some wags will say that small shareholders should not expect a running commentary on the business and of course we should not, however it is crucial to engage your shareholders and to inform them of relevant developments which will build loyalty, trust and belief. Hopefully our new IR will ensure that we raise our game as this will IMO also help to raise our share price as we have a terrific story to tell and should not be bashful.

Arturo - I invest in companies which have potential and I am active as much as I can be in highlighting what I consider to be weaknesses. I have been around the block a few times and engaged with many talented people along the way. I believe in shareholder democracy. Don’t fall into the trap of assuming that all management teams know what they are doing all of the time - some do and are very capable ( Shaun Day of Greatland Gold) others have a less rounded skill set and need help. Private shareholders can and should highlight weaknesses and it is for the company to decide if they act. Perhaps you have a less participative approach to investing but each to their own. By the way I worked in 2 FTSE-30 companies along the way so thanks for asking. Do you invest in other companies or is just FUM ?

Yes I think that is possible Ahananda. I have written twice to Barder about upping their game re Investor relations and people may have caught Barder in the short piece today saying that they have also just appointed a new IR firm which I was pleased to hear.

Oakhurst1 - no you are wrong. Having spent 2 years in a previous life working at The Takeover Panel I know the Blue book. You are mixing up a whitewash transaction of a private company in Administration with a potential offeror of a listed company. If he buys through 30% he will be compelled to make a Rule 9 offer period.

Of course when I say 29.9% is his lot I mean his lot before making a Rule 9 bid by virtue of moving past this level.

Interesting theory PDS. One thing that I am certain about is that MA will not be allowed to creep through 30%. He is a modern day corporate raider and the Takeover Panel will be acutely aware that he is building a large stake here and he will not receive a waiver, so 29.99% is his lot. With Frasers he bought the business ( unlisted) from the Administrator so his ability to take control was in very different circumstances.

What interests me here is that the shorts are keeping the share price pegged down which is suiting MA to acquire easily at a very attractive price however it is unlikely that both Ashley and the short hedge funds can both win ( accepting that the hedge funds are well in the money) but will have banked these gains. Is Ashley believing that BOO may struggle to survive and may follow the same fate as Frasers? In those circumstances one could potentially see a similar outcome with less scrutiny from the Takeover Panel but if BOO manages to survive this challenging period and the share price recovers, he will have recovered some of his losses on Debenhams so he has value opportunities in both scenarios. Indeed there are parallels with ASOS where his downside is somewhat protected. Very shrewd and opportunistic but my personal preference as a shareholder here is to see BOO recover and the shorts run for hills as I would much rather see UK listed companies prosper ( we are having a very hard time in all sectors atm) as opposed to a Chinese company taking control of our fast-fashion marketplace.

I for one hope that Barder does not get seduced into selling at this early point in the company's development. If Haleon are interested they will be keen to buy before the business ramps up in Europe, US, South America and Middle East. There is insufficient sales data to assess fair value yet which would suit an offeror.. Lombard Odier will be the ones who will decide if the value is attractive as they will give the nod along with irrevocable undertakings that they would be happy with the offer price. At that point the BOD would then recommend to all shareholders. So, as I have said before LO hold the cards and will protect us small fry shareholders from a cheap shot.

At last we have some useful information upon which to assess the potential here. By far the most important line is that Eroxon has captured an initial market share in Uk/ Europe of 20% which is astonishing. I was expecting less than 10%. Now, there will always be an initial spike whilst those customers who have been using other products try out Eroxon. The crucial point is whether they will switch after using it once or twice. It will take time for this to wash through so more granular data across the year will inform us more.

The global size of the ED market is circa $3bn but importantly it is growing at a CAGR of 8.5% which is fast and makes room for new entrants without the margins collapsing due to intense competition so hopefully keeping margins at a decent level. Our GP margin of 58% looks good but not enough information on the commercials deals and operating costs to extrapolate although the full $4m for Haleon is recognised in 2024 which should make it a profitable year rather than simply break-even which we were told at the interims last year aka ‘ Gerald Ratner moment’.

It has been 6 months since Haleon were announced as leading the US launch and distribution so no doubt that they have been estimating how much stock may be required to ramp up ahead of a formal launch based on initial sales data from UK/Europe. Perhaps a soft launch in certain US states initially.

Decent reaction today but a long way to go before the markets wakes up to potential. Just need to hire some big hitters to make sure we don’t allow this opportunity to get away from us as we are now in the big league which requires the right people to optimise the potential.

If we had an active and dynamic management team they would be all over these sort of issues or at least they would be directing their distribution partners accordingly. Now perhaps behind the scenes they are, but with almost no communication from them and all interaction with a third party PR we are treated as mushrooms. If I had more confidence in their abilities I would be wondering if they were working on some sort of corporate action given the radio silence but my instinct tells me that they don’t have the requisite experience to operate at this level to monetise the product. I hope I am wrong and time will tell.

I have said a number of times until I am blue in the face, we have a media shy management team who I feel are out of their depth especially the CFO. Our new NED is just that a non-executive Director who will attend 12 Board meetings a year and will have the odd interaction with Barder and our CFO. Yes we have a management-lite model so we outsource PR but you get what you pay for as anyone who has been in a competitive commercial role knows.

We sit and wait for morsels to be tossed in our direction. I can only assume that Lombard Odier have access to more information than us lowly PI’s, although this is illegal if it is deemed price sensitive and not shared with ALL shareholders and is acted upon! I can only assume it is not price sensitive and not acted upon!!! I do know from experience that large shareholders calls are always answered by the CEO and much more details is provided - the way things have always been I’m afraid. Sitting with my much reduced investment until such time as I see an injection of talent into FUM and that will encourage me to invest more.

Discoman - perhaps but I am not entirely convinced. Reason is that Lombard Odier have by far the largest holding here mid-20’s % from memory so any bidder would have to convince them to vote for the offer whilst trying to convince PI’s. LO backed FUM a few years ago and will expect a much higher return now that the heavy lifting has been done ( FDA approval, patent extended etc). So, a modest offer of say, 50p which would be cited as a decent premium on the VWAP blah blah would IMO fall a long way short of their expectations having taken a big risk at the outset. With a weak management team who appear media shy and out of their depth I am hoping that LO will flex their muscles at some point and coerce the FUM BOD into hiring some serious commercial talent. We are bumbling along here in the dark which does not inspire confidence and IMO that is why the share price is also bumbling along. Bring in some experienced executives who are financially astute and media savvy and give them a pile of free options and then you will see the share price take off.

Martinelick - simple question for you. Do you think a public company CFO should be a qualified Chartered Accountant? I only discovered that she was not after I invested and as 90% or more listed CFO’s are properly qualified CA’s I assumed incorrectly, which is my bad and I have managed my investment risk accordingly. My own experience of listed companies is that most Board's would consider it to be non-negotiable requirement. The CFO is accountable for all things financial and her role is to brief the CEO and Board on all things financial including what to say but I assume that you know that. Furthermore, I suspect that many institutions in doing their due diligence will red flag this issue in assessing management capabilities so it may be a challenge to attract more institutions rather ironically! . It as a fairly common issue when a small cap in the scientific or pharma space grows rapidly after a successful discovery and needs to backfill with more experienced executives to successfully monetize the new product . We are no different IMO and our new NED is a start but we need to do more.

Indeed this early extension is good news although there is so little information in the public domain we are all ‘mushrooms in the dark’. I have exchanged correspondence with Barder since the ‘Gerald Ratner’ moment suggesting that he should hire a properly qualified CA to replace Hildreth and that the inexperience in communicating financial forecasts to the market is damaging the share price.

I was pleased to see the new NED hire which is better than nothing but still falls short for me. On the rise last week I decided to sell down 50% of my substantial holding until I see a change in FD and/or a properly detailed set of financial forecasts supported by granular ‘actual’ data that allows me to put a fair value on the company. Broker forecasts should be ignored as they rarely can be trusted. Perhaps if we are lucky we will hear more in March/ April about the US launch by Haleon ie. specifics and not vague statements. A strong and experienced CEO/CFO combine are adept at communicating the right information at the right time. Our duo don’t have that experience so let’s hope the new NED gives them the direction that we are currently lacking. So much potential here but not enough talent to optimise it IMO.

I must confess that I did not see a £2m short bet being taken out last week AFTER we dropped so much from the 11.5p we reached on 4th Dec. Yes the MRE was published on 21 Dec so perhaps this Hong Kong based hedge fund was waiting to see the numbers and have reacted to the fact that no reserves were published. Not convinced by this as it was unlikely to be much better than what was published given that GGP were leading and would be naturally cautious. The reserves will be published in the fullness of time when NEM engage with the process. Perhaps they are working with other actors whose interest it is to see our share price continually depressed such that the churn from PI’s to Institutions is accelerated due to the fact that we are within 12 months of first production. We have seen some of that churn recently but there is a long way to go. Perhaps a cheap buy-out is the objective. Again not convinced as still far too many shares in PI hands so it would be a big risk and unlikely to succeed.

All conjecture but I would be surprised if Wyloo or those in their wide network of contacts in Asia didn’t know this fund. If they did not before, they will know them now and will be keen to understand this MO at this crucial time ahead of any strategic pronouncements from NEM as to their intentions with their 70% stake in Havieron. Some may say I am reading too much into this and that it could just be a punt on forcing the price back down to 6p to collect £0.5m but I would argue that the timing leaves them open to news at any time from NEM or indeed news on our many tenements so smart folk would take the punt after a sharp rise not a sharp drop! I really want to ask Shaun for his take on it but understandably it would be an unfair question and he would not be able to comment.

My best guess is that this fund are working with others with a clear objective to keep the price suppressed as we have seen for some time now. In many ways if you can handle the subterfuge and frustration it makes may even more determined to tough this out for a lucrative pay day over the next year or two. There are so many twists and turns here but this is what happens when you discover an ore body which is worth fighting for.

A Rule 9 mandatory offer is required when a ‘potential offeror’ buys through 30%. The Panel will be consulted by the advisers to the party who triggers the 30% threshold if that has been achieved as a result of the total shares in issue reducing. In practice the Panel executive will ask the advisers if their client has an intention to make an offer in the foreseeable future and have the powers to hold them to whatever they say ie. if they say they have no intention to make an offer and buy more they could get their knuckles rapped and be forced to sell down. As a non-statutory body The Takeover Panel have extraordinary powers. In this case with some of the shares, Royde may not be able to control voting rights entirely so adding to the complexity. The main test here is intent. If the Panel had any inkling that Royde was intending to creep up to a significant level above 30% to acquire the shares in the market ‘cheaply’ ahead of a formal offer at a significant premium, they would act. I can say this with some certainty having been involved with cases in my youth. Pleased that someone is buying shares here as the market still does not appreciate the potential with TIG.

As we wait for another deal to present itself from our Irish Walter Mitty I do wonder if the company will receive some heavy handed litigation from creditors who have been waiting patiently for payment for many months. Perhaps Tosca will have to extend another $5m just to keep the wolves at bay? This is IMO is the most immediate challenge facing OF whilst he dreams up a new deal to rescue what is left of this debacle.

Tosca received a waiver from the Takeover Panel in 2015 when they participated in a Placing which increased their stake from low-20’s to low 40’s. Ordinarily moving through 30% would require a Rule 9 mandatory offer to be made but the waiver precluded that. Nothing to do with AIM rules but Takeover Code rules. Since then we all know that they have continue to build their stake with participation in various raises. I do wonder if they are ruing their unstinting belief in OF. Thought we would have had the RNS today but must be tomorrow now or after close of play.

On 3rd January 2024 we reach the 6-month anniversary of the most latest suspension. Has OF ran out of blarney with the AIM regulators or will they be amenable to an extension? With a missing pile of cash still unaccounted for and with no proper explanation from the company to update the minority of insignificant PI’s and no Accounts etc it does not look good from where I am sitting but I am sure there will those who think it is just dandy!