Member Info for bandit1

Classic case of arm wrestling with shorts doubling down hoping that the review will be negative whilst longs see value and are hoping that the review will be much less negative than the market has determined aided by II selling. Hedge funds are bold and greedy but don’t always get it right. They will be highly leveraged as they always are, and with a management team who seem media shy I suspect that the shorts are betting that silence is in some way a sign of failure. Of course, they could have inside information but I doubt that. Personally I am hoping for good news with no material impact and a lot of money can be made here.

Yes it is circa 12-months that the company has been in an Offer period which must be a distraction . If there is yet another delay to this potential transaction there will be some serious question marks of management as it would appear that the tail is wagging the dog. Not sure which Bank is advising management but they need to step up and ensure that negotiations don’t drag on into 2025!

Winstanley - CVS own less than 10%, yes, less than 10% of the market yet a long-winded and as yet incomplete, CMA investigation has seen a disproportionate impact on the company’s share price. This kind of protracted regulatory process is not helpful to UK plc which needs all the help it can get atm . I am very much in favour of a small state, light regulation and government policies which are pro-business. I fear we are beginning to see the opposite and there is plenty of evidence every day in the media. I expect that the findings of this lengthy investigation will have a reaction of ‘ is that it?’ , as they often do, but the damage has already been done to shareholder value pro tem. Having said that I feel confident that the company should be able look forward to better times ahead. In the meantime, our current government has a big challenge on its hands to prove to the pension funds and investment pools in UK and elsewhere that we are a country which investors should feel confident enough to invest in as they have left UK markets in droves or completely ignored it. Will they return any time soon is the important question?

This scandalous and laborious competition enquiry has been such a drag on the company’s share price. Classic over-regulation in UK which is impacting pro-growth companies. I suspect that some minor concessions will have to be made and then the shackles will be off! Doesn’t encourage investment in UK markets and explains why our listed companies are so undervalued. Sadly, won’t improve under our socialist government anytime soon.

Unquestionably this is frustrating and I can’t remember seeing so many consecutive Rule 2.7 announcement in my 40 years investing. Important to be aware however that The Takeover Panel at every deadline will interrogate the advisers to Equals and the Consortium to ensure that there are bona fide reasons to justify yet another delay. Why would the consortium members spend so much time invested here if they did not really want a share of the prize? If they walk away the risk to them is that someone else will come in and take the prize. There is a risk of course but also a 14% opportunity in the short term here and if the deal does not conclude, yes there will be a short term hit but this company is growing market share and revenue so longer term will either be taken out or will grow value over time. All IMHO.

I think that MA got wind of the Placing which prompted his note making BOO Aware of their fiduciary duties. BOO probably took legal advice and were told to exclude your major shareholder from a Placing when the other large shareholder Director would take a chunk to give him an advantage could have been challenged in the Courts so they had no choice!

Looks to me that the dilution would have been a little less than 10% reducing Fraser’s stake to say 24% so I think Fraser’s will stay below 30% so a mandatory Rule 9 offer will not be required yet. Let there be no doubt that The Takeover Panel will be all over.

I think it is fair to assume to MA will have a view on our new CEO. If he rates him highly he may be prepared to take a Board seat for now which will give him at the very least the inside track on asset sales within the strategic review and he can keep his powder dry. Risk of course is that our new bright and youthful boss is CEO by name only and his strings will continue to be pulled by the Chairman. After all, MK appointed him and this is the norm for companies like BOO with founder shareholders continuing to run the business like their personal fiefdom despite their modest residual holding.

Alternatively, if MA does note rate him and/or his ego has been irreparably damaged especially if he is refused a Board seat, expect a hostile bid. What we don’ t know is the extent to which the larger shareholders have had enough of the underperformance and want a fresh injection of energy, business bounce and capital strength. I know what I would prefer.

The buyer is unlikely to offer a quoted vehicle so you will receive the cash for your shares £1.35 plus a 2p dividend and you invest in something else. I bought another £40k’s worth today at an average of £1.20 which is the easiest 14% trade I am likely to make this year assuming of course it all goes to plan!

It is nuts that this has not moved closer to 135p. Now a cash offer of 135p with an additional 2p dividend yet you can still buy more at 121p which I have just done. Yes there have been delay upon delay but it would be very unusual for this deal not to close at 135p + 2p. Markets have lost it.

Instititional shareholders will determine next steps here. They will be acutely aware of the value destruction seen over the past few years. They will need little persuasion to see a major shift here and if MK continues to rebuff the discussions it will be all about how much they will accept for their shares to vote for a hostile. Let’s be honest that our Chairman is no captain of industry and MA could eat him for lunch and unquestionably he has the firepower to do so. The shorts will be contemplating how they can cover without causing a spike but that may be easier said than done. Time is ripe for a break-up IMO.

Jackbal- don’t forget setting up 3 new vanity projects to justify sitting on their backsides for a year doing and achieving nothing. Oh and guess what, 2 of these vanity projects have been canned despite the fanfair. I do think that there is an increasing nervousness from some of the more optimistic shareholders expecting that things will be different when we assume 100% control. Problem is that when the talent is just not there it is so difficult to get out of the death spiral which we are now in. I have a modest ( for me) holding remaining, hoping to exit if there is a spike however I do think that most others who have lost all confidence in our 2 employees will do the same so any spike will probably be short lived. I do hope that Pepas drill results come in late November or early December and are as good as the initial holes as I think this will be the last roll of the dice because how on earth will our simple broker with their begging bowl be able to keep finding the VIP’s talked about when they must wonder if their discounted shares and warrants will ever be monetised.

Bhargav - I am afraid that I am not as upbeat as you after this webinar which gave us very little albeit they are in a very tricky position now. Of course they dodged the question about buying shares as they don’t want to otherwise they would. Hiding behind insider rules is nonsense as majors have deals going on 24/7 yet the directors can transact. I can’t be the only one who wonders how a one man and his dog operation can keep it together with Brad in W. Australia and Louie somewhere in S America with the odd trip to keep the locals honest. With MMA calling the shots we had experts on the ground 24/7. There is no doubt that there is potential here but does anyone have any confidence that these 2 have the ability to keep raising money at 2-3p until they find a partner? Brad playing hard to get makes me laugh. So, we will have to raise again in January probably. Best outcome is that they can announce good drill results in December ahead of the AGM which gets them off the hook pro tem . The price moves up to 3-4p and they raise more at 3p until Brad accepts that a partner is necessary. Worst case is that we don’t drill or the results are not as expected and we drop to 1.5p. 2 other things to the person who doesn’t think they need to have skin in the game, you should not be investing in small caps as the the spiral of doom with equity raises at ever lower prices is totally painless if you have no equity but that is obvious. And…..Brad needs to take a trip to Nigeria…..for what? He appears to live on another planet. Focus 100% of your time on Apta and Pepas and find a partner or you will be toast.

Disappointing yes but unexpected no! Our CEO and CFO are probably in the bottom quartile of executives for a quoted company with a £100m market cap IMO. When you have weak and media shy management who have underperformed consistently it is difficult to find buyers and after a while long term holder bail-out, out of frustration. The signals have been blatantly obvious for a year or more after the initial Haleon RNS with a 12-month lead time. Smarter investors have taken their capital elsewhere. Yet another small cap with good potential but lacking the management skills to monetise.

Rampy CEO talk now that would be a novelty! One would argue that if you had been invested here as long as many on here have, you would understand exactly the point I am making. The role of a CEO, amongst other things, is to promote the company they are leading to create interest, excitement and optimism and in the end, hopefully, shareholder value assuming that results are delivered. Small caps usually have a large retail base so pretty important to create some form of buzz especially when you have a product like Eroxon to shout about. Call it rampy if you want, I call it part of the job description.

I agree Discoman. I have come across few CEO’s who are as media shy and as dour as Barder and when you watch his performances you sense he is hating every minute of them. Most sharp and engaging CEO’s would have waxed lyrical about how this important milestone was the start of an exciting period of growth for the company on the cusp of Eroxon being rolled out into the world’s biggest and richest consumer market blah blah. This is sadly what you get with weak management. Barder would find a negative if he won the lottery……..’ money corrupts people, woe is me’, and folks wonder why no-one wants to buy the shares! Best outcome here is a sale to Haleon but I just hope that our Chairman, whoever he is, appoints a decent Investment Bank to ensure we get a fair price.

Sharetrader - your post at 0722 must be one of the most desperate posts I have read on any chat room for some considerable time and there is a lot of trash to wade through. You attempt to justify why it is OK that our not so dynamic duo have so little real money invested here despite the so called amazing prospects and now that they have 100% back again you never know perhaps they may even buy another £50’s worth. You have posted another 13 times today which smacks of panic in my eyes. I would question why you invest at all if you struggle to understand the significance of their lack of conviction towards a company that has paid them handsomely for a number of years now for achieving so little.

The reason it is important is this - serious backers will avoid putting their real money in here as the top 2 will not put their hand in their pocket - why should they? These TP backed Placings will not work for ever. So, we will either see death by a hundred placings with warrants galore at an ever reducing level or if shareholders are very lucky they will secure a JV partner who will pony up some dollars due to the promising drill results which brought me here in the first place. Even if this does happen they will strike a very hard bargain as our negotiating position is weak so the upside here in my eyes is extremely limited and the rarified levels seen here previously are unlikely to see the light of day.

I sense that you are starting to find out as others have, what it is like to have to rely upon Castro aka The Invisible Man and Brad the Geo to deliver shareholder value. Looks grim so I just pop in for a couple of minutes each day for a bit of light relief.

Oh what a surprise! The minimum of details yet again which is the norm as it shields them from criticism in the future. How much will the drills cost, when do they start, what is the true monthly burn rate, why have they failed to support the Placing by putting their hands in their pockets to show commitment and belief, blah blah? As others have said there are new warrants at even lower levels following this latest give away which now means that the share price will be going nowhere any time soon. For those who understand how these placings work with a broker like TP, they will attempt to con……vince their private clients to take up a slug but they will have to hold onto quite a lot if they cannot convince these so called VIP’s to commit to owning more of these at 2.78p. With our not so dynamic duo having so little skin in the game I find it hard to believe that shrew investors would be prepared to take on too many of these if at all so traders will be flipping as fast as you can say Dolphin. Oh well another non-event explorer to steer well clear off IMO.

Sharetrader - thanks for providing your thoughts but not sure you really much of a clue. Patience wears thin after many years here and a serious lack of trust in management is a major red flag. I suspect that you have been here for merely months and bought in hoping for an announcement which would have created a spike and you would be long gone. Sadly for you and like so many others investing here over the years, you are probably now locked in as it drops into the 2’s again in anticipation of an imminent raise.

Of course most explorers have to raise. I have been doing doing this longer than you have had hot dinners so am fully aware of the ebbs and flows and thankfully do very well out of it meaning that I don’t have to sit around waiting for ever for weak management to try and get their act together. Taking losses is part of the game but staying locked in to potentially lose all capital is a mugs game. I have over 20 positions at any one time and have learnt to cut and run otherwise the smell from bad eggs can linger for too long.

The markets are littered with micro cap explorers who fail to monetise and it is usually due to poor management. We had a great opportunity with 2 majors who did the heavy lifting for a while but sadly no more, so how will we cope on our own? Real talent will always find investors to back them so let’s see what our ‘not so dynamic duo’ can do now with gold at all time highs.

If the raise takes place at around 2.5p which won’t be far off the mark, I will consider trading this one to recover my losses but best IMO to be careful, our management team do not have a great track record of success as they will tell you themselves so probably best to back those that do have a track record to shout about with any serious amount of money eh?

Anyway, off out for a game of golf in the sunshine in beautiful Algarve. What will be, will be!

ISPY - yes you are correct up to a point. I sold a rather large holding at a loss earlier this year and will consider my next move following the raise RNS. If it is a decent amount with clarity on the use of the funds ie. Which tenements will be drilled and how long the results will take and will our self declared ‘poor’management team put a few quid in to assume a little more risk, that may encourage me back in to attempt to recover some losses. The poor liquidity here can be an issue however so moving large amounts will always cause a stir. Longer term however it really is tough to have any conviction when those who you are relying upon to bring home the bacon have little to shout home about by their own admission. For many this is more about clinging on for hope rather than believing this is going to the moon!!