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I put in all my sell orders at 620 & they cleared at 08:45
...and before someone jumps on me, I'm not saying there will be further offers. I think waiting for my 620 rather than taking 600-610 now is a fair offset for a potential much bigger gain - but I don't claim to know anything, I just form a strategy and let it play out.
We don't know what other parties might or might have been in discussions when TB were interested before, or since.
The fact that nobody else made a firm bid then is irrelevant - that was then and this is now. Things change in 12-18 months. The US market certainly has. I bought Crowdstrike at $109 at a similar time to the original TB interest and sold 80% of my holding recently at over $300. What is Darktrace worth over there now?
HKK - No point you buying back at 601 though, not enough gain to 620. As Sheltie says there's not a chance of another bid coming in. The End, never, FACT, or whatever else you want to write at the end of a sentence to make the opinion sound convincing. Bit like walking away as you have the last word in a debate/arguement with the other half, a weak attempt at not having to entertain their views when you've got no facts to back up your own.
I'll hold thanks.
Crazy I can buy back at 601
There are still a few scenarios at play here as they stated Q3/Q4 until its possibly gets done, thus;
1. Alternative offers come through push over 620
2. It fails vote and SP drops 25-35% like 2022
3. It goes to vote and is approved at 620
I sold my entire holding this morning at 620 because if scenario 3 comes to play (high probability) then I've got my cash now vs leaving as dead wood until Q4. It also allows me to jump back in should scenario 2 happen (possible but less likely but could happen). Scenario 1 is the only one I potentially loose on but this is least likely.
Still think this is worth 700-1100 fair value but matching Crowdstrike much more, but as Dark have even said; they are not realising true value listed in UK vs US competitors so I think they have an appetite for scenario 3 to get on US markets where they will get the love and valuation they deserve ...
HKK, yes, this offer could very well set off some higher bids.
Prof - Why would it be bad for PIs in your view though?
"UNDERVALUED ON THE MARKET
Panmure Gordon analyst Harvey Robinson said the price did not reflect any significant synergies, and it could trigger interest from a trade buyer such as Palo Alto."
The SoundMan
I came out of the co some while back.
TI saw the reference to potential interest from Palo Alto online in one of the articles I was reading, believe it was Reauters
It is mentioned here
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/DARK/thoma-bravo-to-buy-uks-darktrace-for-about-532-billion-4beyzn1ebhci2zl.html
Should also be noted that not all ThomaBravo deals go through
I don't believe any new bidder would be bad news for PIs. The floor is 620.
Unless The Professor knows something I don't of course but as he's not a regular DARK contributor (or investor probably) I suspect it was a bit random, although I'd be happy to hear him expand on his statement.
Please excuse my ignorance - why would a bid from Palo Alto be bad news for private investors. Thank you
There is mention of Palo Alto as a potential bidder. Really bad news for pi
Poppy , maybe given a secret good deal by Bravo (plus others too)
the ML issue no longer a risk for the Directors
Bravo is good at software buyouts
How long does another Bidder have to offer ?
I’ve been a holder since IPO and obviously I’ve done well out of darktrace but I’m disappointed today I was hoping to see this price go above 10 pounds in 2 or 3 years time I do wonder why this wasn’t listed in USA when it went to a PLC I’m sure it would be worth more then TB our offering now if it had gone on the Nasdaq
It's a tried and tested model. Buy low in the UK, run it privately for 2 or 3 years and then re-list in the US. They'll probably triple their money.
I don't think RIs have any hope of stopping this but if you've sold hoping the sale will fall over and you can then buy back cheaper you can forget it.
This is a one way bet now. You hold or buy ay 608 and either get your stake money +2-3% in 3-6 months or you get a much better return if another Company enters the bidding. That's why certain types of Investor jump in after the initial furore of the takeover announcement has died down.
"Its move private will be seen as a major blow to the London Stock Exchange, where it listed in 2021. The company was seen as a welcome dynamic addition to a market often characterized as less appealing to technology firms than those in the U.S. or Asia, and stacked with “old economy” players, such as miners and oil and gas companies.
Darktrace specifically referenced its belief that it is undervalued in the U.K. as a reason for the sale. In a statement, it said its board believes the firm’s operational and financial “achievements” are not reflected in its valuation and that shares are trading “at a significant discount to its global peer group.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/26/uk-tech-darling-darktrace-rallies-after-agreeing-5point32-billion-sale-to-private-equity-firm-thoma-bravo.html
They are a huge Investment Fund that has a significant portfolio of companies.
Net is they see it is very undervalued on the LSE & based on ARR, growth etc they can realise a higher forward value from their growth that alas will never be realised as a UK plc
How does Thomas Bravo hope to make money from taking over Dark?
1. Improve the management?
2. Offer better finance?
3. Gain synergy with another company they own?
4. Current SP is much too low?
I doubt the reason is any of 1-3. Instead from their thorough research of the company and its environment, they must believe that the SP is much too low.
Personally, I shall trust their judgement , which is based on a much deeper understanding than my own. I do not see how Bravo will improve DT and expect DT to thrive on its own, so I shall not sell and will oppose the takeover.