Member Info for bandit1

Onestraightguy - buys and sells fairly matched but sentiment is poor after another poor trading update so risk to downside IMO. I fully expect that the company is working hard on a fund raise now as they will be using the loan facility which they announce a few months back. Of course they could increase funding lines rather than gong to shareholders which is possible. Either way, whilst this has been worth a punt below 50p over the last 6 months as it has generally bounced back I would not be surprised to see the price dip further so I will wait on the sidelines for a few weeks longer.

As has been mentioned already any large buys are most likely to be short covering with funds happy to cover at 50p which was looking unlikely over the last month. This management team have issued countless profit warnings over the last couple of years and it continues with a frightening predictability. Not entirely sure what the cash position is now but probably not good and therefore at what point do they go cap in hand for another chunk? Recent track record tells me it will be lower than where we are now. I have consistently said that there is value in IP for a larger tech business and it would not surprise me to see someone coming in as part of a fund raise.

Whilst I appreciate that EM hypothesis can probably be used to justify the drop in the share price down to the level which Gangfeng secured their deal, I do struggle to apply this to small caps with fewer market makers, limited liquidity and volume. Sentiment and momentum can shift the valuation of small caps without any new information in the public domain so I prefer to reserve my self-justification of EMH to liquid large caps. I remain here as I am locked into a high average and despite a very average and vastly overpaid CEO who is lacking in some basic skills, I want to believe that there are better times ahead. Lithium prices, funding mistakes and investors taking cash out of the market and AIM generally are all negatives which have dragged us down and not just the pricing of the Gangfeng deal. The cash on the sidelines will come back at some point, hopefully some of this after the election and a Tory majority and funding will, I am sure, be secured with a level of dilution which we can’t be certain about today. I don’t see many who are enjoying these markets but with the prospect of low interest rates for many years to come, investors will continue to seek out returns above the average FTSE div yield so there is still hope for us who invest in AIM in 2020/21.

Yorkshire -
1) Possible
2) Possible as he has form
3) Highly unlikely as they don’t need to.
4) Unlikely as we have few II’s
5) See 4 above.
Good to see higher volume though.

Some months ago Gervaise would express surprise at the disappointing market reaction to positive news. These days he sounds as upbeat as ever with good reason yet doesn’t mention the share price. Why is that? Well, my take is that he realises that things are going gangbusters with his multiple exploration targets, he is incredibly busy and focussed on an end game which extends well beyond the next RNS or even the next year and he also knows that with the high % of PI’s on the share register and recent warrant issue there will be sellers around very corner ready to trade this.
In other words his overriding confidence in what the company owns and how it is shaping up is what will ultimately deliver value for shareholders including the management team over the medium to long term. I fully suspect that some specialist institutional investors are keeping a close eye on how GGP is developing and will also know that many PI’s will jump ship during a hiatus in comms or any negative news and that is when they will make their move IMO. Happens all the time with small caps and the impatient will rue another missed opportunity......!

Long term institutional holders content to sweep up the family shares in off-market transactions at a very attractive price. I fully expect this to creep up steadily as we move towards Jan as formal results which will be strong and outlook looks very solid indeed.

In a similar vein I have taken a decision to re-invest here today on the drop given the attractiveness of the entry point. This is a well managed business with a model extending neatly from student accommodation to BtR sector. Whilst the upside is probably capped below £3 based on current pipeline this can move forward based on additional pre-sold announcements particularly in the BtR sector which has greater headroom IMO.

Absolutely correct MikG, we could all lists dozens of jurisdictions which have issues with criminality but can thrive with the correct management skills. My concerns here which I have shared before and been shot down by those with limited experience is that we have an extremely weak CEO who is paid handsomely yet appears incapable of communicating properly to the market hence our lowly price. Every time he opens his mouth he seems to drop a clanger! I have stuffed these shares away hoping that Gangfeng take the lead here into production injecting more capital along the way and leave us minions with something. Sad but in the 2 years I have been here my confidence in Secker has reduced rapidly despite the prospects of the company being better than at any time in the last 2 years.

1+1 you are of course correct about how Rule 9 would be applied in the case that they acquire more than 30% which requires a mandatory offer at a minimum price paid for the shares in the preceding 12 months unless with the approval of The Panel etc. I do think that a lot of time is being wasted talking about the potential of a hostile offer and Newcrest driving the price down as this rarely happens when there is already a potential JV on the table and as someone else pointed out this rarely happen in the case of the latter as it is illegal with a partner on the inside and in the case of a hostile bid when the share register is full of private investors, which is the case here . Think about how difficult it is to herd cats.........and you will understand why! The share price is down because more people are selling than buying yet so many continue to be in denial that this could possibly be the case. In time this will rise again which does not particularly affect lth’s but it does concern the traders.

So many positives about GGP and Messrs Heddle and Baxter in particular. Not many as strong as those 2 on AIM and yet the price continues to disappoint. I am no fan of market makers and their tactics but they cannot be blamed for this drop IMO. Fact is that GGP has such a large PI following and so far has a modest number of institutional holders meaning that this will always drop like a stone when the short term crew decide to trade it after news. There is little that can be done about this until serious and longer term funds start to buy and hold waiting for rich returns if/when Newcrest acquire 70% of Hav and it seems certain that they will start building the mine. There is a good chance that rich returns are made here over the next few years and the short term crew rarely benefit in these returns but that does not help the lth’s at frustrating times like this. Also, Gervaise will know that in attaching warrants to previous private placings is almost guaranteed to put pressure on the share price in the months following as some who participated, are tempted to offload some of their existing holdings and I am certain that we are seeing this on top of the short term crew bailing out. Not a fan of warrants for that reason unless I have some myself of course, but a necessary evil. Far too many regular posters get carried away with cries of 5p, 10p next year which is juvenile and predictable and many of these regular posters are probably selling at the moment on the quiet but that is their prerogative.

Like some others who have been here for some time and are in a position to wait for the rich returns, I could not care less about the price today, tomorrow or next month and will wait for the completion of Stage 2 if it happens which is when the price will really move. In between announcements this will move up and down until Newcrest advance positive drilling results to the point that suggest beyond reasonable doubt that they will mine.

My lowly opinion of Secker is well known on here. Am I surprised? Not a bit as this is the norm on AIM. Sadly I am locked-in at a much higher average and can afford to wait so will just have to take it on the chin and wait for Gangfeng to drive Sonora to production as I am certain that Secker is incapable of doing so. Another promising company with attractive assets run by second rate wannabe’s IMO.

I think that Jambo is just being realistic as there is always the tendency to believe that this will fly on the next RNS and we know it never does or at least not yet. I have a significant investment here like many others as I believe that the Paterson region is going to be THE place to mine over the next few decade based on a multitude of promising prospects which are coming thick and fast. They can’t all be wrong can they?

We are supported here by an excellent CEO and there are not that many on AIM as we can all testify I am sure. His financial background equips him very well in direct negotiations and be in no doubt that Newcrest will not pay a cent more than they have to for anything which is partly why there are so successful. That it is not say that they want to shaft every small explorer but they will drive a hard bargain and what else would you expect if you were a NEwcrest shareholder. That is why I would also dearly like to see decent results from at least one of our other attractive licences to give us more leverage in negotiations and potentially more cash in the bank to avoid being a one hit wonder albeit a very good one.

Earthling - undoubtedly yes in answer to your first question and equally a resounding no in answer to your second question IMO. Guarantees from governments and especially in countries like Ecuador with a judiciary and political structure unlike the ones we recognise in UK are worthless. Yes , they can be ‘persuaded’ in a multitude of different ways to support a sector or a project for as long as they have control of power. As you know at the drop of a hat, a new government can enact new laws to suit their own agenda and whilst this may be counter-intuitive to clear thinking commercial minds this happens all the time. The decision to invest has been made by SOLG, NEwcrest, BHP and most PI’s recognizing that there can be no certainty but that on balance, social and economic imperatives are hopefully sufficient to ultimately produce a supportive government policy for the mining sector even with a change in political persuasion . I am invested on that basis at a level which I can afford to lose.

When I originally invested here around 2 years or so ago it was on the back of a strategy to invest in CEO’s who have a record of success. What I did not appreciate, and to be candid, what I failed to discern as part of my research was how little Cross appears to care about small shareholders. We all know that institutions and large private shareholders have ready access to Directors and are much better informed about the plans and intention of the BOD and therefore it is incumbent upon the CEO/Chmn to make an effort to keep small shareholders onside. To do otherwise is to show utter contempt towards small PI’s which is exactly what I see from Cross and it is why I sold out last April at almost double the price we see today.
Now, it seems that at least a small number of investors who post on here are content to be fed on scraps by their own admission and whilst that is their choice let me tell you all that it is often a quick-fire way to lose hard earned money in my experience.
The penny finally appear to be dropping for some of the hardcore on here and when I look at the 5-year chart I do have some sympathy for them as it looks a little like a ski slope in the Cairngorms not far from where I spend a lot of time. So, unlike some who may have modest short spread bets on and who may be mischievous in their posts I have no desire to short but I do have a genuine problem with people like Cross in public companies who feel that they can run roughshod over small PI’s as if he was King of the Castle.........and of course he believes that he is and therefore can do what he wants. This in my experience often ends badly.

Thanks for clarifying.

What has been confusing here is that Woodford Equity Income Fund and the listed Woodford Patient Capital Trust Plc have both held BUR shares. The details from BUR only describe a significant holding from ‘Woodford Investment management’. Now, it may well be that the investment trust hold a stake lower than 5% but have not been able to find out. Suffice to say that I am not concerned about the Trust as there is no pressure on them to sell shares including BUR. Blackrock on the other hand are selling the listed holdings immediately of WEIF to turn into cash or near cash so that they are ready to start paying out those who invested in the fund from January 2020. All a bit of a kerfuffle and no real way of knowing if this will put downward pressure here. All will be revealed in the fullness of time.

No it does not answer the question about overhang. We have no idea whether the holding will be retained, sold or transferred to another II unless of course you know otherwise.

Remains to be seen whether this is smart move or not. My initial reaction is that is a small amount but no doubt there has been considerable analysis undertaken on daily trading volume and the company via their broker can decide the extent to which they participate. Hoping that this shifts momentum to the upside in anticipation of further returns or some corporate transaction at a higher level than this. Staying patient for much bigger returns to come.

MrC - you are showing your age with that observation and I agree that there is a slight resemblance but the good sergeant was quite eloquent as I recall and did not cough and splutter every few words! I remain hopeful here but not confident. I sincerely hope that our CEO, who takes home a £300,000 salary plus perks including free share options for running a company with a market cap of £40m and change pulls his socks up because on any measure he is overpaid IMO.

Another positive update from BUR BOD underpinning their financial interpretation by another group of experts. The unknown over the next few months is whether the Woodford overhang will impact price recovery and indeed whether positive updates on alleged manipulation will be provided which could give the share price a welcome boost. Keep the faith.