Member Info for bandit1

It is astonishing to read on this board how little understanding there is on the maschinations of the stock market. Yes I am happy at times to educate folks along the way but why would you invest in shares if you have little understanding of the basics of fund raising and the dilutive effects taking into consideration the asset and strategic positioning as a consequence of that fund raise. We are not raising for working capital which often disappears as salary and bonus, we are introducing a powerful strategic investor who will acquire new shares issued on 18th October and the market has priced in these new shares already which is what the market does in a nanosecond. What folks need to focus on is the ability of Secker to use these funds to help to monetise the assets along with any final tranche required to plug any funding gaps which we have yet to conclude. The absence of PR is standard as Secker is probably still reading through old geology reports and forgets that the main part of a CEO’s role is to promote and update the company and its strategic plans to the market. Our CEO does not have the skill set to do this which irritates me in case you have not noticed. There are a few AIM CEO’s that do this well which explains why AIM often gets such a bad name. This share has the potential to rise well above the 150p it reached almost 2 years ago but not sure I have the patience to see it through given the weaknesses I see in Secker.

Tudorjohn - 1) possibly 2) possibly 3) no - market priced in doesn’t have to wait until the day that shares are issued. 4) not huge volume so probably not. I will add 5) market conditions and associated political mess means that cash sitting on sidelines 6) Secker not accomplished communicator or leader and expects investors to seek him out rather than the other way around. I have been here for almost 2 years grinding my teeth and will sit here for longer believing that despite a less than stellar CEO IMO we can benefit from the quality of the assets and new bedfellow.

Well, at last we have it. Thankfully, no last minute banana skins which are always possible when doing business with China. Secker needs to raise his game now and either prove that he has the correct qualities of a CEO with a great asset, a powerful strategic investor, fully aligned with deep pockets and connections. We need to avoid the tail wagging the dog here especially with Zinnwald negotiations to ensure we get biggest bang for our buck. Let’s see what the market thinks of this today.

Expect a relief rally today then expect a period of stagnation until such time as more detail has been provided by the indigenous groups and the government. There is now a big hole in the government finances so they will have to confirm to IMF and country how they plan to plug this hole. For me I am keen to understand if the mining sector and the potential claims by indigenous people over tenements owned by foreign miners is still a very live issue. I would prefer clarity here before I invest further and I expect the market and strategic investors will be seeking some government assurances although this may take time and will be subject to change just like the fuel subsidy issue so still a lot of red flags IMO.

Yes you are correct Italian in so much that SOLG, as an explorer which has identified rich assets in a politically unstable environment, has to accept the cards which it has been dealt. Whether you are correct to say that they are making the correct decisions with the deck they have in front of them is something to be determined in the future. Would I decide to fold based on current events - possibly but not quite yet, but would I want to raise or go all in , certainly not at the moment. I still want a seat in the game however as fortunes can change at any time.

I agree that communication is relatively poor here particularly of late. Having a decent PR who answers shareholders emails is much better than some explorers but that is not enough when the company is facing a challenge like this which could be a storm in a teacup or could be a seminal moment. As a small shareholder I have always wanted to know the facts with a detailed analysis of the risks as they evolve and a statements from the CEO which contextualises the issue relative to the companies assets ie. are they impacted specifically or not, to what extent and what if anything the company can do in terms of influencing key people, bodies, industry groups or barring any details are they simply at the mercy of events? So, with little other than a ‘forced’ announcement which refers obliquely to media ‘reports’ when as others have highlighted the actual events have been broadcast around the globe, is amateur PR in my book. Treat shareholders as mature, intelligent, well researched people and you may find a measured rather than a knee jerk reaction in terms of share price. I only have a relatively small position and have been waiting on the sidelines but still feel that I need greater clarity of the evolving country and sector specific threat to invest more.

In Newcrest’s annual report issued last week p63 they reference Ecuador’s large scale mining jurisdiction as “ evolving amid a broader debate on the benefits and impact of mining. Current and potential future legal challenges seeking to restrict mining activities in Ecuador present a risk to the mining industry.” Now, I accept that this maybe considered as standard risk management parlance but Newcrest, with other sizeable investments in Ecuador will want to be more comfortable with the political situation there before investing more shareholder funds IMO. Not sure they will be jumping in and buying more when the restriction is lifted, even at this price. It would be a brave CEO to recommend this to the BOD at this time when there are many other irons in the fire. Not scaremongering, just presenting comments from published material from respected sources with my opinion which is what these boards are all about.

.....is NOT smart shareholder comms.

Reports that the president of the indigenous federation Jaime Vargas in an interview stated that the demonstrations are not simply about cuts in fuel subsidies but “ Our fight is about the defence of our territories, and that measures to appease the IMF have led to increased oil and mining development on indigenous land.... and that he will not speak to government unless it agrees to reverse austerity and stop selling concessions to oil and mining companies on their land”. Unable to post link but demonstrations seems to be connected to regional mining referendum which battle the indigenous people lost. Of course deals may be done in due course but I am a little miffed that Mather would issue an RNS issuing options before a somewhat ‘forced’ RNS about the troubles which have been running now for 8 days. Read into that what you may but it even the boldest PR person would say that is smart shareholder comms.

Punit - like it or not politics are THE issue here as they are for commercial entities anywhere in the world. What do politicians do - they create policies and turn these policies into law. I am sure that you know that just look at what the Marxists plan to do in the U.K. if they ever get into power again. As a starter for 10 they plan to re nationalize the Post Office and some of the Utilities. Who knows what price they will pay for the shares - hope we never get to that point god forbid! We have no idea as yet if there will be a change in government in Ecuador or indeed if there was it would be adverse for FDI but that is why the price is going south. Mather can do nothing to stop it but needs to work hard on funding as this could drag on for some time.

Baking - I am sure that political risks were front and centre of the analysis undertaken by IMF, BHP and Newcrest and even some PI’s. Trouble is these days with extremely big mining projects they take a long time from exploration to extraction as you know, require a heck of a lot of cash at various stages of development and when economic cycles or political risks take a turn for the worse as is almost inevitable on projects of this scale, there will always be pain along the way. Usually PI’s will be hit hardest and unless you have been here since the early days you will be feeling it.

I have been in for a year or so and sold down a big chunk after the regional mining referendum debacle which highlighted the country and political risks to me in a heartbeat so feel fortunate to have done so. I have been waiting to reinvest but watching the mess at SXX with much less country and political risk ( there is certainly some with Brexit and failed parliament) has reminded me of the fragility of these companies. With will not blow over in a few days IMO so will keep close to see if there is merit in investing more here. Can’t call it until the dust settles.

Understandably emotions are running high today as major media channels are leading with the Quito demonstrations. Moreno may have hot-footed it to the coast but is defiant and states that he will maintain his anti-corruption and austerity policies. Risk is that he is forced out and there is a return to Correa-era, harder left politics although I believe that Correa has been banned through legislation of seeking a third term in office. Worst case IMO is that Moreno is unseated and pro-mining policies are kicked into long grass. Best case is that this blows over in a week or two and Mather resets his short term objectives, raises short term funds to avoid a delay in timetable and reaches some clarity with strategic shareholders who will have been watching developments very closely.

I have said many times before and I will say again, we have an inexperienced CEO who due to his technical knowledge is running this business as is often the case with small caps. He displays few leadership skills and I sense that Gangfeng can sense this. Who knows if the delay in the 3rd stage of a bizarre 3-stage approval process that our CEO didn’t even know about is due to communist red tape or some kind of oneupmanship and I suspect that we will never know. I for one am looking for a change at the top here going forward otherwise this blip will only be repeated with other blips as Gangfeng get their teeth into this and they will run Secker ragged IMO. I will try hard to stick around until some kind of value can be realised here but it is hard work is it not?

Share price halving in 5 months is bleeding in my book. What we do agree on is the longer term prospects but limited updates from Mather does not help. In the short term do you think that the CEO’s of BHP or Newcrest will recommend to their BOD’s additional exposure at this time, probably not, will other investment capital be announced in the short term probably not. Investors have different time horizons for different reasons. Day trading, short term holding up to a year, medium term and long term Buffett type strategies. I used to criticize day traders and short term holders but realised pretty quickly that they serve a useful purpose PROVIDED that they do not spout misstruths etc etc. if you invest long term, good for you but important IMO to respect other folks strategies whether by circumstance or design as being nimble in these markets and reacting to events as they arise is often an intelligent thing to do.

Quady - we are all grown-ups on these chat rooms even though some have more experience than others, so to state that you are ‘disgusted’ suggests to me perhaps that you should not lower yourself to use these chat rooms. This one is reasonably civilised, others are far from that just take your pick from dozens we all use. SOLG is bleeding at the moment due to a multitude of factors which are well known. They operate in Ecuador which is under-developed politically, socially and economically. It makes positive noises about mining policy but as we have seen here over last 6 months, banana skins can appear at any time as they did with the regional mining referendum and the riots over fuel subsidies causing the government to move to a ‘safer’ part of the country. What sort of message does that provide to foreign direct investors? Not good in my book on any measure - what will be the next banana skin when this one has gone as populism takes hold? So, to minimize clear investment risks and to denounce those for highlighting them could also be described by some as ‘disgusting’ but in my book that would be over-egging the pudding!

SOTB - thanks for your reply. GA - well reasoned post especially the part which highlights that options to develop opportunities will continue to require Cross to dip into cash reserves. We know that O@G sector is under the cosh so investors at this difficult time need something to hang their hat on and stick with their belief in the company and prospects. Not rocket science but regular updates explaining how the different elements of their strategy are progressing and the funds required to monetise these assets with expected ROI is what most CEO’s would do. To do otherwise means either that he has nothing uplifting to say, has not developed detailed plans as yet or he does not feel the need. Of course, and for balance there could be price sensitive reasons but most will sit on the sidelines until such time and we hear again from the great one probable on Platypus or GPA.

Yes it seems that the herd have moved on from BUR so for longer term investors it is certainly a game of patience. So much cash on the sidelines as investors move out of risk assets anticipating the worst in terms of global slowdown. Most central bankers will not allow a recession these days and simply release more cash into the system to keep it going. Not sure if that is the correct approach but politics get in the way but as a quick shock may actually be better to clear the air and would encourage cash back into risk assets. All of this means that when this moves again it could move rapidly and at any time we could learn of the latest litigation to compel the LSE to unmask those who allegedly manipulated the share price. I can wait.

I share the concerns of many about a Fraser’s comments if they are accurate. I have lost a significant sum here on paper like many others but realise that it was my bad. As soon as a CEO starts blaming people that is a red flag to me. Yes, he has struggled to convince investors due to market pressures but that is his responsibility as CEO so must take the blame himself not try to deflect to others which is human nature but a positive display of human nature IMO. Yes he is under intense pressure but so are the many retail shareholders deep under water too. HIs PR should have stopped him, as he has lost credibility and it does indicate that he is thinking clearly IMO. Focus on contingencies 100%, finding strategic partners and other funding options. Please stop blaming others for your own failings as it never ends well.

SOTB thought I would look in for 30 secs and you are relentless in your support. Just to remind you, NeilH and Buzzlightyear that you said in April, so only 6 months ago, that this will break through £1. Now 34p and change, on the bid. What is it that the market is missing here? Perhaps the market has had enough of Cross and consider that the Midas touch has left him? What do you think? I see little prospect in the short term of a shift in momentum but no doubt you will put me right and convince those who continue to add/hold, that the market just does not understand Cross. Truth is, as I have been saying for 6 months or more, IMO the market is saying that they are confused and unconvinced about his stewardship of the company so the share price drip, drips down. Obvious to some but less obvious for those with blind faith. Needs to be said.

Not one for conspiracy theories but it would not be totally absurd, would it, to consider that the many entities who use questionable tactics to manipulate share prices, day in day out, are pretty miffed about BUR standing up for itself and its shareholders? As a response those entities which make a healthy living from spreading fear and doubt using whatever tactics they can, are doing their best to keep their foot on BUR’s windpipe. How very dare they threaten the goose that lays the golden egg! We have a BOD used to a fight thankfully so volatility is here to stay for some time but IMO value will out.