Member Info for bandit1

I will continue to sit on my hands here until such time as Woodford’s Income fund is removed from suspension and I will watch with interest to see if there is a rush for the door at that time. If there is a queue forming to sell the fund then further share sales will have to take place to satisfy those wanting out. So, whilst I agree that on fundamentals the share price appears undervalued we all know that sentiment often overpowers fundamentals and I cannot see the benefit of investing more at these levels until Harris comes out of hiding and makes some form of comment and we see if Woodford can stem the flow from the jockeys fund when the gates are opened at some point in the future.

Well another significant drop on low volume which is about sentiment IMO and it is all getting a bit messy here. I wonder who is advising Harris to stay put on the Woodford Patient Board. Whoever it is they should have a look at the share price here. More pain to come I sense unless Harris makes some statement and when will Woodford’s start offloading the 24% of at all? Not impressed at all.

Rhodi - you have highlighted an important point which follows around so many AIM stocks which are forced to raise cash time and time again via placings and the institutions/funds with higher risk appetites step up to the plate to support them at favourable terms whilst PI’s nibble at the crumbs. The Boards of these types of companies are not usually that experienced in the machinations of the market and the executive directors are certainly not so have to dance to the tunes of those with the deepest pockets. I really like the potential here with the ED gel but LO makes me wary about investing any more. If they continue to sell into any significant rise I will stick with my existing stake but will seek to increase if we can hold a rise above 27p.

Kiwikev - thanks for your kind words but it seems like you are quite clear about your own exit targets which is all that matters in this game as you will know that you win or lose based on your own decisions. Good luck to all investors here and look forward to hearing some uplifting news from the company soon.

Kiwikev - I have been watching TCG for months and first invested in the mid -20’s in April and have bought on the dips and have almost hit my own limit having bought more this week. I am currently under water but this never concerns me as the exit is what determines success or otherwise as you know. I suppose I am a value investor, comfortable with risk but of course always seeking to avoid traps! Sometimes it is difficult to keep buying with total shorts of circa 10% or perhaps a little more given those undisclosed less than 0.5%, but I remain quietly confident that the shorts will have to start to cover their positions as soon as we hear from the company about their divestment plans. If the price of say the Nordics is good I think that this will set the tone for the short term share price and future announcements but of course the opposite is true if the price is considered below fair value. I believe that a lot of the downside risk is in the price. I have no inside information but make decisions based on experience and public information and facts. I try not to speculate but this IMO is not a Carillion or an Interserve or Debenhams and I have positioned myself based on this view. It is also true however that the hedge funds have positioned themselves aggressively on the downside and if you look at the daily trades there are lots of ALGO trades dominating every trading day in between those days without official news which can shift the price quickly in one direction or another. They have the power but do not control the facts. They will do everything in their network to get ahead of the news cycle but unless they are on the inside they are taking a big punt too. As to target price exit that will depend on what we hear from the company in terms of the divestments, if they are made, before we see any formal offer from Fosun. We cannot be sure how good the relationship between the BOD and Fosun is but must assume it is good. They will not be on the inside however in so far as the sale of the company assets is concerned and the TCG Board will want to ensure that they retain leverage and there will be very strict rules in place to ensure they maintain appropriate Chinese Walls if you pardon the pun! The TCG will be aware of Fosun’s ambitions so it will not be a one-sided discussion as some on here will lead you to believe. Fosun could offer for the equity and back to back a sale of airline assets to avoid regulatory impediments but I am getting into speculation which I prefer to avoid. So, any exit for me is fluid based on the emerging position. Suffice to say I prefer to see businesses thrive and prosper and with the combination of Chinese interest, private equity and trade interest continue investment in hotels and digital distribution, a programme of cost reduction and efficiency improvements underway and sufficient working capital headroom for the foreseeable future I believe that the outcome will be a positive one for all stakeholders!!

I prefer not to guess about when a company may make an announcement particularly when assets may be sold as it is pointless and you will most likely call it wrong. I prefer to assume that it could be at any time that is why I position myself that way. I am mainly a long investor and I bought in here on the way down as I think that there is money to be made when the business is re-positioned either under current ownership or with Fosun at the helm but with the TCG brand intact. The Nordics business could be sold at any time and the European Landing slots could be neatly packaged up and sold at any time. They have been talking to prospective buyers for some weeks if not months and that is in the public domain and not speculation. It could be tomorrow, next week or July . I look forward to reading the official releases from the company rather than speculation from newbies on here. I must have filtered more than 12 trolls over the last week and my troll alert has been screaming at me to sit up and take notice. This usually happens when the troll teams are working hard for their masters who have a lot at stake. These trolls come in all shapes and sizes. You can however detect their subtle or not so subtle attempts to save genuine shareholders from themselves if you have been around the block a few times and we had quite a few on here this week trying hard to ascribe a value to the business but conveniently missing out key variables and using assumptions which an 18-year old accounts assistant would not use. I refuse to engage as that is what they want. I know how to ascribe value as I have been involved in many transactions and let me assure you that the base case models will be adjusted time and time again based on what value different buyers see in the 22 million customers. The prospective buyers have access to detailed data rooms not an excel spreadsheets with a few columns in it. So, when my troll alert is at these levels I increase my exposure unless I hear facts to make me change my position.

So, as many of us expected this will swing wildly up and down until such time as official news is released by the company and clarity will start to emerge as to the size and shape of the company going forward. Anyone watching CNBC this morning will have picked up on the discussion about the fact that China has 1billion plus consumers many of whom are beginning to show an interest in travel around the world as their wealth increases. Fosun want to capitalise on this opportunity. Am I content to see the price drop back to pre-talks level, of course not but I am content to buy at these levels again as I have no intention of running for the exit whilst the company and their bankers are deep in negotiations with multiple parties about multiple parts of the business. I do recognise that some will exit as they watch large daily swings and that is their prerogative but others expect this to happen as there are lot of powerful players with deep pockets and a lot invested in achieving their particular agenda. Not for the faint hearted at the moment but I will patiently wait for the real transformative news and continue to ignore the noise.

I invested here in late March in mid- 30’s p after the RNS re Tudorza FDA approval with some optimism. Sadly the Woodford Income Fund debacle has caused severe collateral damage all over the markets even in places where the fundamentals and prospects look good like here!. I remain concerned that Woodford will have to drip feed sales of big blocks of stock for some weeks here if he is struggling to offload some of his unquoted securities. He may transfer off market to other funds but we will only find out after the event. Woodford is now finished IMO and his funds will shrink fairly quickly which is tough for those who remained loyal to him and are now out of the money. Opportunity to acquire more if it drops further but we need new institutions to take up the slack.

Yes indeed it was floydymagic who was on the ball earlier and who helpfully posted that the 2023 Bonds were up 38.5% on the day - yes that is 38.5% on the day albeit from a low level. . Now, some would say that the Bonds are rising on the back of renewed optimism that the company will survive and that the divestments of selected assets will bear fruit. Others no doubt will find a reason why this big rise for the Bonds is a bad thing but I just ignore these dullards - you know who you are by now don’t you?

Been out all day just had a chance to look in and I have so many filtered now that there is a sea of green on each page. As expected there are quite a few new footsoldiers working hard for their masters or perhaps themselves, in their own little way to attempt to drive the price down. They may be feeling good today with their efforts. They are not invested here but spend an inordinate amount of time bashing a share - funny that eh? I have got so many other positive things going on to enrich my life and it almost makes me feel pity if that is what some folks spend their life doing - I bet that these pitiful creatures are a hoot at parties! Best not to engage directly with them as that is exactly what they want you to do. I ignore them. Fact is that the share is currently priced for failure which IMO presents a fantastic opportunity which I and many others have grasped as we know that have a raft of well regarded and cash rich entities bidding for TCG assets in competition with each other as they clearly understand that these assets are valuable and those bidding will have to recognise that value in their bids or will be shown the door. Some wags even conveniently ignore goodwill ( as it suits their agenda) in the form of many millions of loyal and satisfied customers who will maintain that loyalty into the future whether Fosun buy the Tour operator or not and our friends Fosun themselves will also have to attribute a decent value to goodwill if they are to successfully acquire the other 82% of equity which they currently do not own. So, in coming weeks and months there will be ups and downs that is certain but at some point, yet to be determined, news will come out with a vengeance which will allow large reductions in debt and a radical reshaping of the business with or without Fosun. I am excited to wait for this news as are many other real investors here and in the meantime will happily ignore those dullards who strive to talk down the recovery prospects of another fine brand.

Manchego/Bluelight - yes I agree that the short funds need to try to control the price increase rise when it seems to be going against them on a day like this. Many times I have seen short funds take out new short positions at the same time as closing older positions they took out weeks or months previously. Short tracker may give us more detail in coming days and weeks as to how they are playing this. I would really like to know how difficult it has been for them today to buy back stock as they are doing well to keep the price at this level IMO. I am ready for another day of scare stories tomorrow and the next day until we read official news from the company. Yes, it may take a while but negotiations have probably been going on for some time now so they may surprise us with news to boost the price as others may have an eye on the business and Fosun may not get their own way. All speculation but those LONG are in a much stronger position those hoping for failure and looking for an exit.

You must be feeling rather nervous with that position - no? Lots of pretty desperate folks posting on here today who either have a little spreadbet short outstanding or are working for short funds. There is a LONG way to go here. There are circa 20m purchases here today so far so the short hedge funds have not closed out more than say 10% of their positions so will be working around the clock with their networks to drag up every story imaginable to encourage folks to sell to them as they are staring into a big loss if this recovers in the way many hope it does. Fosun are sitting on a big paper loss but will look beyond this and look to play the LONG game in acquiring a great brand at a fair price. Of course they won’t overpay but ignore those who expect the equity to be sold for a song as they understand the value as they own 18% of the equity! They will be negotiating to buy TCG after the airlines have been divested but the announcements may take place at the same time or perhaps a little later, the truth is nobody knows yet, including the Board. There will be no mandatory offer under Rule 9 of the Takeover Code so let’s put that to bed. So, we all know that sale announcements will be made at some point over the next few weeks and therefore expect all the trolls to be working overtime. Too many names to mention but I have just filtered half a dozen of the obvious ones to avoid wasting precious time reading their nonsense. I am not in the £1 camp as a LONG investor but if we can push ahead to 40p-50p on the asset sales and a slimmed down Fosun-owned business this will be a good platform to grow the share price with reduced debt and a re-focussed strategy. Hang onto your shares folks I believe it will be worthwhile!

I estimate that there are around 150m shares in total out on loan from institutions to the hedgies. They have been very bold and have barely reduced their positions of late preferring to keep the pressure on the company. At some point, and most of us would dearly like to see this start in earnest on Monday, there will be a scramble by the shorts to cover their positions. This will not be that easy for them if the market makers are light of stock and PI’s hang onto theirs. This has the potential to move north very quickly indeed based on a painful short squeeze and what we really need is a serious of announcements from the company this coming week advising of agreed transactions to sell Nordics and long haul at a decent price pushing the share price up before agreeing a deal with Fosun at an additional 30%-40% premium to the price at that time. This could move us up towards mid-40’s in short order and IMO is realistic and not fantasy as some will presumably suggest. Exciting to be long and TCG looks to have a promising future albeit with a potential foreign owner with much deeper pockets and in a position to keep the brand alive.

Dessie - thanks for posting this link. When I watch Secker in interview I cannot help but think that he could make a lottery win appear disappointing! Yes that may appear harsh to some but the market still thinks that too. He appears to be a very solid technician but the company needs some inspiring PR to bring to life 2 extremely valuable assets in Sonora and Zinnwald with a Major about to sign on the dotted line to support and expedite the completion of Sonora and the potential that Gangfeng may partner at Zinnwald too. I have been here for 18 months and have been critical of Secker and his inexperience in failing to secure funding but will remain until the market eventually attributes proper value to the assets. That may begin when the Chinese formalise their intentions but I wish that the Board would put some effort/enthusiasm into shouting about what they have here in spades - ironically, it is usually the other way around with AIM CEO,s!

Been in here for a couple of years and decided it is time to sell out at a loss and move on to other opportunities. Took a while to sell my shares in chunks. My mistake was not to do so earlier around the time of the special dividend but always easy to see that after the event! I hope for lth’s that FID does actually happen here at some point but the Russians appear to be calling the shots and our BOD simply have to wait for them to decide what the next move is.

There is no need to be concerned about the myriad of folks who place small spreadbets @ £5 a point in the hope that they may be able to pay for the beers and a curry at the weekend. Everyone has to start somewhere. I have an issue with the spivs who work for the large funds on an arms length basis of course, who spend their time on these bulletin boards spouting mistruths about a company to support their ‘ anonymous’ master. Trouble is the regulators are completely and utterly incapable of dealing with this cancer so we have to deal with it or invest in premium bonds. I advise folks to learn about how these markets work and whilst these small fry folks are like an irritating fly you want to swat, they disappear after a few days until others return with a new agenda. Good luck to those traders/investors who want TCG to survive and prosper, after all they offer a valuable service to the public and employ lots of people.

AK gold yes there is certainly merit in that but what must be a concern to all lth’s including myself, is that illegal artisan miners can, with modest support, bring an action/ call for a referendum which can have such a detrimental impact on a company/companies which have so much to offer the country in terms of inward investment and jobs. A useful reminder to those of us who invest in this sector that there are some jurisdictions which are a much safer bet than others eg. Australia and Canada when contemplating the risks involved in making that investment decision. I am certain that this will be resolved satisfactorily but is perhaps a reminder to Mather and others in the sector to up their PR/lobbying efforts somewhat with those in power!

I don’t believe in miracles myself particularly not in the financial markets but each to their own and if it helps to convince you when is the right time to sell or buy for that matter, who is to say that is any better or worse then the next person’s toolkit. What is clear to me here from looking at facts is that the short hedge funds are using their algo trades to keep this down but I have no doubt that they are battling against some long funds and PI’s so they are not getting it all their own way. Whitebox are flying the flag for the short funds and have borrowed circa 50million TCG shares from pension funds and other organisations to short the hell out of this stock. For those unfamiliar with ALGO trading, the name Whitebox is synonymous with trading platforms incorporating specific strategies relating to high frequency trades to assist the fund with their position on a stock. They are clearly betting that TCG will not secure enough attractive bids for those parts of the business on the block to be able to re-establish the business in its core market of hotel management and tour operations. One think I am sure about is that the TCG Board and investment Bank advisors will be acutely award of what is going on with their share price and will not be sitting on their hands as they contemplate the bids on the table. These transactions are very complicated and the prospective buyers will be driving a hard bargain there in no doubt yet I remain quietly confident that there is a future for the company so will stay patient pro team with an eye on what the short funds are doing here. Some wag said earlier in the week that the movement in price is down to insiders but impossible to know with so much volatility so either believe that there is a future or sell out on the next spike. Good luck to those in the long camp.

No the BOD do not have to put out an announcement. Lots of ALGO trades and trolls tells you that the short funds are having another push to bash the price before the sale of a number of valuable assets which will reduce debt significantly and allow the company to invest in the assets it decides to retain. Citi have egg all over their face after the last piece and may be trying hard to make it happen or save some face! The shorts and trolls are so predictable on shares like this. You either believe or you sell which one are you?

I no longer post much on here as the sycophants took over some time ago and have made it quite dull and I am quite content to hold my position until Newcrest start to prove-up what we, and more to the point, they, believe is in the ground. I couldn’t resist making a comment about the obsession some appear to have with a large private shareholder who, as far as I can see, has no experience of mining yet has informed a public forum (under his own name) how much he has invested in here over many months as he built a position. Now, how many people use their own name, build a stake, suck some sycophants in based on regular, albeit brief comments in support of his action - to create some sort of following one assumes, sell a big chunk at the same time as creating the impression that he intends to hold for a longer period and a much richer price? This is evidenced by posts as others have demonstrated, and not hearsay. Well is that smart or is that deceptive? I will leave others to make that call. Suffice to say, those investors who are independent of thought and experienced in this game will simply chalk it down to yet another example of what newbies and possible sycophants need to watch out for. So, instead of asking that same poster what their intentions are when it is clear to most that any response is not worth the keyboard effort to type it, why don’t you just quietly do your own research and believe what YOU think rather than what someone else tells you to think? Good luck to all honest and straightforward investors in GGP as I feel confident that we will see a good return if we stay patient here. Rant over.