Member Info for bandit1

Well you have to hand it to RRE, attempt to acquire the debt for £40m and you have effective control in time when you convert. This RNS confirms that RRE have had no ‘fireside chats’ with IOG and probably unlikely too. Over to you RRE so lodge a formal offer next week at a decent price or walk away for 6 months! The plot thickens but simply re-affirms that our assets are worth trying everything to get a hold of them. Hold tight folks.

I have been invested on and off in IQE for the last 2 years. I sold out around 6 months ago as the short funds started to drive the price down and the company appeared to have almost nothing to say in terms of positive PR outside of regular financial updates. This is an ongoing concern and the replacement CFO has not yet had a chance as yet to exert any real influence in terms of pro-active investor relations. Highly skilled technicians have created valuable IP but quoted companies also need need commercially astute executives to promote the company and its opportunities to existing and prospective investors. The recent financials were poor IMO and as others have highlighted, cash burn is quite high which will put pressure on the company across the year. I have always considered that IQE will be acquired for its IP as was ARM, some years ago and I hope this happens as shareholders will see some form of price recovery from the lowly levels that we see now. Sadly, I see further weakness in the price in coming weeks which will only make it more attractive for takeover. I will remain on the sidelines until I feel that the company place a greater emphasis on promoting the company, highlighting its potential and reassuring investors about future opportunities.

Trellis - we are on the same page here and I am pleased that most of the trolls have moved onto attack another small cap so we can discuss some of the real issues at play here. The blue book ( Takeover Code) is always tricky to interpret with certainty without the benefit of full information on potential dialogue between the offeror and offeree as the Code is written in a way which allows exceptions to many rules should the offeree agree to them. In this case it seems that there have been no amicable discussions between respective CEO’s nor market purchases by RRE therefore I believe that IOG will appeal to the Panel, should RRE not make a formal offer on 2nd April ( as you say at whatever price they choose) for RRE to fully respect rule 2.8 meaning they wait 6 months before another offer - period. RRE will have already received this advice from their corporate broker. So, their 20p offer was either just a last minute, opportunistic punt given the negative market reports and share price drop, or they had IOG in their sights for some time and will put in a more realistic, formal offer on 2nd April. Some on here have suggested 23p which I would not take seriously but we don’t have all the facts in front of us. Speculation on my part but if RRE are serious, their management may reach out to IOG before 2nd April to discuss possible formal terms to attempt to inform their next move. Unlikely in my view but possible. Either way I sense that you, I and most other shareholders would much prefer to read about an attractive farm-in deal allowing the potential for refinancing and full development of the company’s attractive assets. I am hoping that the exposure which the company has received over the last few months will force the hand of other interested parties to flush out the real value here which IMO is comsiderably north of our current share price.

Trellis35 - The Takeover Panel will expect RRE to ‘put up or shut up’ by 2nd April. The fact that this is a possible offer does not let RRE off the hook as they are in an offer period already by virtue of their possible offer and therefore they have to either 1) Make a formal offer under rule 2.7 2) Make an announcement under rule 2.8 explaining in a clear and unambiguous way that they do not intend to make an offer and the 6 months period commenced in which they cannot submit a new offer or possible offer. The exceptions would be if the IOG Board agree to entertain an offer from RRE in that period as they are ‘in discussions’ or indeed of a new offeror appears which creates a new offer period or if there are material changes to circumstances which the Panel agrees with. At that point a new Takeover Panel timetable would kick-in. So, the IOG Board and shareholders are protected such that possible offers cannot be casually made creating a potential false market without RRE either putting a formal offer to the IOG Board or Walking away for 6 months.

Yes you are correct Paddy I think that some are confused about this important fact.

I have to agree that this is sloppy journalism which is more of an opinion piece rather than supported by fact. Often the case these days with newsprint. I remain doubtful, based on my own research that the institutions will surprise us and vote JD & co back such would be the potential upheaval if all the Board disappear overnight. Now, it may be that the share price would actually recover in such circumstances but no-one has any way of knowing that. My own dilemma is that I have little confidence in the existing Board and I sense that post-2nd April we will be in exactly the position we are in now and therefore there is a downside risk in the short term for me which needs to be addressed. My gut tells me to sell down ahead of the vote and take a decision about coming back in when the results of the vote are known and if there are reasons to be more optimistic about reinvigorating the Superdry brand. For that reason I will not post unless/until I re-invest in the company.

Capital Group have been divesting most of their AIM holdings over the last year or so, it seems based on a strategic decision to avoid Micro caps whose shares are at the mercy of significant manipulation as we all know. I know of another big US fund who have been selling down micro cap stocks. So, the regulators have failed to deal with the obvious issues which we see daily on AIm stocks with rumours spread on social media supported by teams of trolls bashing a share then moving onto another which has, say, low volume and liquidity. The good news here is that the damage is hopefully behind us and let’s move back towards the levels of early 2018 of £1.50!!

It is pleasing to see that S&W are working closely with IOG so as to ensure that there is no adverse impact from LOG Administration. Our share price took a big hit over the last few months aided by the trolls who appeared here implying that this would be the end of us. Now that this has been clarified today I would like to think that the market will correct the price as this element of doubt has been removed and the positive wording in this RNS about farm-in etc gives a very clear signal that we are not far away now from news which should enable the company to put this episode firmly behind them. Having said that I would expect MM’s to play some games today as they always do.......Hold tight and watch any stops you may have in place.

SailorNL - Just for clarification and whilst we wait patiently until a more interestimg RNS is issued, costs involved in reporting RNS’s relating to daily transactions are almost not worth thinking or talking about. They are produced by junior compliance staff within the entities transacting in the shares of IOG. As I mentioned on here previously as IOG are in an offer period ( RRE have only made a possible offer but the obligations on them and related parties are the same as it they had tabled a formal offer) they are produced and costs are incurred by the company whose responsibility it is to produce them ie. Nomad’s MM or broker in concert with RRE or IOG. During hostile bids or dawn raids these regulatory reporting requirements are very important for the offeree company and advisors but much less so at the moment. I don’t believe that RRE have bought any IOG shares for their own account which I believe 600T also mentioned earlier.

No evidence whatsoever of significant shorting here but perhaps you can provide evidence to prove me wrong! If you are talking about a few spread bets which is paultry, most traders with IG as an example are long. I am afraid that a lot of stuff posted on here at the moment is not worth reading but this is what happens with a share like this which offers so much potential but is heavily traded. This needs more longer term investors to reduce volatility but will come in time especially if Newcrest re-affirm what GGP have discovered at Hav so far and if we see good results from other prospects. Yes there are sellers here and there will be others telling MM’s how much they want to buy and at what price. Best to follow your own instincts based on public information, experience and extent of risk you see in the projects and what you are comfortable with. Following others whether they are rampers or derampers can often end in tears as people will often say anything to suit their position. I remain comfortable despite the modest reaction to the farm-in but it helps that my investment horizon is years not weeks.

Good stuff wolfi and also positive to see that they have 2 existing plants in Sonora currently in development to be operational in the near term producing zinc and copper. A stake in a major lithium project in the region would fit nicely in terms of sharing certain logistics but seems that they have yet to get over the line in whatever negotiation they are in the middle of ie. as a cornerstone investor or bidder.

Well I hope that II’s do read these comments and I suspect that they may well read them especially if they are sitting on the fence pondering what way they will vote and/or have doubts about the current team which, frankly, they must have some doubts. JD and co will have tried very hard to influence the large institutions but of course this is a numbers game now. They ( perhaps only JD ) have committed to a 2-year lock-in in respect of their shareholding’s if they succeed in their quest to return to the company but if they fail in their quest will they sell down I wonder.......? Not seeking a response to this question but I would dearly like to know!

Aligator - very well reasoned post and I share your interpretation of the appointment. My own background is M&A, and I am certain that the rebuttal to the RRE ‘possible offer’ was made from a position of strength/confidence not of weakness as some of the trolls have suggested. I remain interested in RRE’s intentions but would prefer to read about a farm-in announcement with a well-funded, well-connected, recognised partner before the end of the month. If RRE remain interested perhaps the Boards can have a meaningful discussion about potential for a tie-up at that time.

Great find wolfi and I tend to agree with others this is a negotiating tactic by the Mexicans which has made me a little more engaged than I have been here over the last year. My £1 average means that I am not getting too excited just yet though! Grupo Mexico in the largest mining group in Mexico and one of the largest copper producers worldwide and will be very well connected with significant resources etc. So one would expect that they will be favourite here. I do hope that Secker has an experienced team from Citi carrying out the negotiations here as I would prefer that he provides the technical input and leaves others to do the financial negotiations. Those who have jumped on board at this level could be handsomely rewarded and good luck to you.

Well some people call it manipulation, others call it simple supply and demand forces, and there a multitude of other reasons offered for daily movements like this. I know for sure that MM’s have been collecting stock today and yes before some wag comes on to argue that they don’t hold positions, yes they do! They know that this company has now largely derisked in the short to medium term with this superb news. They also know, as GH has confirmed, that new drilling plans are underway and will be announced at some point soon. So, they will accumulate to satisfy the large orders which they anticipate or have been coming in from existing/new investors based on this recent, brilliant news. People like Sprott or institutions rarely buy in the market do they? At various times during the day I had trouble buying any serious amount so gave up at one point. On each occasion I could have sold my full holding which is several millions and growing so it is obvious to anyone with half an understanding of the markets what is going on. It is irritating when this happens but you learn to understand what Is going on and accept it for what it is of you want to participate in high growth stocks like GGP. Also, AIM is a cesspit I know but until regulation changes we are stuck with it. I know that some large funds won’t touch a small cap listed on AIM with a bargepole and who could blame them and if we see more and more funds take a decision to exit their holdings the more chance there is that the incompetent folks who try to run this market will sit up and listen. Until then it is best for ones health to try and take the swings and roundabouts in your stride and wait for the market to settle down to more fairly reflect potential. In my opinion that is not anywhere close to where we are tonight!

GG - to my knowledge there is no obligation on the offeree. in an offer period to 'open its books' to an offeror if they don't want to. The reason for this is one of common sense. The Takeover Panel which administers public offers is a unique body in that its rules are non-statutory which enables it to make quick decisions on deals in accordance with the blue book (Takeover Code) and therefore avoid getting bogged down in legal disputes. .As you know it is often the case that competitors in the same sector will make an offer and could illicit valuable information which they may be able to use to their advantage if the bid subsequently fails so, directors have to be sure that this will not disadvantage them. At some point they will open their books but only certain information will be included in the data room until the bid reaches a certain point, There are important rules in the blue book which deal with information to be given to competing bidders but we are not there at least yet. The first move needs to be made by our directors when a formal offer is made and they must explain whether they accept or reject any offer. As small shareholders we can watch from the sidelines , as once again it is the large shareholders who can exert pressure if they feel a good offer is being rejected. After that, the bid process will commence in accordance with the Code. So, hostile bids are often made blind, save from publicly available information. Much better if there is a good rapport between both management teams but a low-ball initial approach can often get things off on the wrong footing! Hope this helps.

Paddy - If Telfer is not delivering as it once did, Newcrest will want to expedite further exploration and development here so the degree of urgency by them will be telling in my view. What GH must be excited about is the fact that GGP now has an opportunity to become a producer in it's own right and if the warrants kick-in which is pretty much guaranteed in my view and we see an early toll stream and if the other prospects looks exciting and other deals are done, GGP may start to consider monetising their assets from a stronger financial position. I accept a lot of IF's here but these opportunities do not come along very often and depends on the extent of GH's ambition. That is the unknown here IMO.

Paddy - GGP still own the asset fully during the farm-in and will control the communications and results and I suspect that the Newcrest executive responsible for this investment will report to GH as well as reporting lines within Newcrest. When it becomes a JV the control will be determined by how much Newcrest has invested ie. over 50% they will control this project with relevant committees in place with reps from both sides as normal.

PaddyGall - like many others I am not a fan of DL based on history . That is a guess which may or may not be proved right but the opportunity of course is that, as Newcrest undertake the drilling campaign on Hav and results become known they will decide how quickly they spend their budget based on what they uncover and one would expect that timescales will start to come out over the next year so I prefer not to get ahead of myself. As others have said the fact that no pilot plant or indeed full plant is necessary certainly fast-tracks production. A lot of steps in between to pique our interest I think.

So, the traders will make their turn and good luck to them but those that do not need their capital, have a fair amount invested and are in a position to hold or buy more will be much more relaxed following this announcement today. I am already thinking about the next announcement which, hopefully, will explain the next round of drilling. Will the drills booked previously with DDH1 for Hav now move to Black Hills and Paterson Range East and when will we hear about this. Focus of GH now will be to prove up other prospects and a rising share price will help to fund an aggressive drilling campaign especially if warrants kick-in. So much to look forward to here.