Member Info for bandit1

It was Newmont not Newcrest. Really good news and nice change that this was not leaked as so many deals are. The real value here has yet to be established and that is what the FS will do. There is a very good chance that the numbers will be big based on what we have seen to date. It would not surprise me if Newcrest were first to put their money on the table and GH have said to them that they must give us their best shot and see what happens but that others may be loitering....

Strongly worded put-down, it is now down to the institutions to decide JD and Co near term fate. If you believe what the Board have said today the II’s will not support their return. Question is if they fail at this hurdle will they wait patiently in the wings to see if the company’s fortunes change and try again down the road? Sutherland is on the hook to sort the mess out so he’d better get cracking.

Bbtablet - It would be very easy for me to say, if the farm-in is announced shortly with a blue-chip partner would this mean that an offer north of 40p would be required to interest shareholders as, by that time, the price would be much higher than it is currently, The thing is, that would be speculating on, what ifs,and one could go all day but for the sake of balance .......

600T - before RRE made their possible offer their Corp Fin team will have contacted The Takeover Panel to discuss their intentions and if they had bought shares in any preceding qualifying period this would have determined the minimum price ie. 20p cash per share. As bbtablet has said their advisors will know Takeover Code rules back to front. I am hoping that IOG have been in pretty advanced in discussions re farm-out with a well funded, recognised name to allow us to progress plans with a solid partner in tow. At the same time I would like RRE to reconsider and improve their offer and as IOG is now “in-play” I think all shareholders would welcome other interests to reaffirm the quality of our assets and to establish a competitive bidding process.

600T - just for clarification, RRE have not bought the shares they were part of Cantors MM activity and Takeover code requires Cantors disclosure as they are connected to the bidder. I do not expect RRE to buy any shares in the market at this point until such time as they decide if they will make a fight of this but we’ll find out soon enough. These disclosure forms are pretty tricky to decipher at the best of times especially when a company is in an offer period and is lending securities for shorting.

OK touched a nerve there then, and specifically the ‘all knowing nerve which does not like to be challenged’ mmmmm. Most on here will know that IF Tosca delist or move over 75% and stay listed and take decisions that small fry PI’s don’t like, that’s tough. Neither you nor I know if this will happen but it may happen. You may be long gone by that time and those on here that are blindly following your every word will be left with what? Anyway, I don’t wish to clog this board up with a personal spat so will desist as you appear to be someone who will ALWAYS wish to have the last word. A final piece of advice - look up the definition of HUMILITY it may help you to engage more productively with people with similar objectives.

Bluerill - you have an unfortunate and some might say pompous writing style but no doubt you will have been told that before. You clearly have access to information from where you sit, ahead of curve which some of us don’t which is helpful to this board thus you have created a decent fan base - well done! Whilst we are both on the same side, that is to say that I also have a keen interest in the price going north I am also wary of a fund like Tosca and I am crystal clear that they will do whatever they need to do to max their position and whilst we may be carried up along the way I tend to maintain some sense of circumspection with funds like this. Over the last year There is no doubt that since I have been here over the last year you have brought some good stuff but you have also been quick to question alternative views which are often reasonably held. You are not the authority on here, you are as insignificant as the rest of us. Perhaps you might want to remember that eh?

This is how this could play out IMO. IOG will be pretty clear by now how discussions are going with the farm-in not to mention Harvey planning etc. They will also be talking with the Administrators and the company’s lawyers will remind them, not that is necessary, of the terms of the loan agreements and will seek confirmation from Smith and Williamson as to their position to avoid doubt to ensure there would be not complications in this regard. In the meantime RRE and their advisers will be contemplating their next move as they will have anticipated IOG’s rebuttal and will initiate plan B. At any time RRE can make a revised offer or indeed remove the offer completely but as I said earlier they will have anticipated a flat rejected to their derisory offer so why go to the expense of tabling one at such a low level in the first place. The IOG Board will be debating all the facts and will probably discuss what would be a fair offer at this time with or without the farm in and indeed if they decide to reject completely how they would respond to a hostile bid as that is much more serious for obvious reasons although quite rare for companies of this size. For those who have no experience of M&A, modest uplifts in bid prices do not happen from such a low base so please can we have a serious dialogue. There are many variables here and nobody, unless you are on the inside, will know how this will play our. If new posters could take some time to read up about the Thames pipeline and its value as a asset and get a feel for the company’s 2P reserves and FID etc it will both save embarrassment and save posters on here rolling their eyes. RRE looks to be in a good position and there may be common ground to be found in negotiations if it starts to get realistic in terms of value. Either way, as a shareholder here happy to walk away from this until the offer moves from opportunistic to realistic.

Wolfi - Impossible to answer this question with any accuracy IMO. Yes we have proven reserves and some would claim to be able to calculate a value based on the NPV but this would be heavily discounted due to funding required and risk of execution etc. Our market cap is now peanuts @ £25m and strategic investors would expect a lot more than 25p-30p which would be a decent premium to VWAP. At times like this there is nothing else for PI’s to do but speculate and wait for some news from CEO other than simply “our discussions with potential strategic investors continue......” I tend to focus elsewhere these days to attempt cover my dire position here.

The only reason that I have held all the way down from £1+ is that the strategic investors/ funds remain. I can only hope that if they feel that Secker is the man for the job despite their huge losses and lack of progress they still believe that this company with Secker at the helm can turn things around - mmmmmmmm! Let’s face it we don’t know what is going on and despite bleating on for month after month after month that they are ‘in discussions’ about funding nothing whatsoever happens. What a mess this has become and in my experience after all the false starts it often ends badly. So, I am close to crystallising a big loss here.............

Nothing sinister about the disclosure notices today as others have explained. As the company are officially in an offer period The Takeover Code applies to both parties and those acting in concert with them ie. advisers. FinnCap as Nomad to IOG appear to have covered a short position but not as principal but on behalf of discretionary clients hence no embarrassment but under Rule 4.6 must disclose that purchase.

Well I must admit that your access to public information on Capital’s sale transfer to Tosca is much better than my own as I can’t find that in the public domain yet so will wait for the holdings announcement which mere mortals have to rely upon. What I find puzzling however is that Capital have been reducing their stake very slowly here over the past couple of years so why, as you have said already, decide when it just starts to become interesting to offload the biggest chunk to Tosca at a poor price relative to potential from here when, as you say, they could probably have tipped them into the tender pot for a much better price, and then perhaps sell more in coming months in the market possibly at a better price (no guarantee of course). There is more to this that meets the eye in my opinion as it makes no sense to me whatsoever and fund managers do not, blindly make what on the face of it is a poor decision like this, unless there is clear justification for it as they have to defend it to their own investors. Perhaps they do not/cannot have investments in private companies and think that is where we are headed but of course that is speculation on my part. You have highlighted some of the negatives from running a delisted company but I do not expect that Hughes, if this is an option that has been considered, will be overly concerned about the remaining 25% as he has appointed OF to deal with shareholders and pays him as CEO to do that. Also with a fund in excess of $4bn to manage, Tosca’s stake in here is not particularly big in relative terms and he has bigger fish to fry and indeed a mark to market loss can be absorbed I am sure. The freedom to make decisions without looking over one’s shoulder and to pass almost all important resolutions without having to revert to shareholders is one which others controlling public companies often dream of and there are lots of examples and some on here will have experienced. My own experience of delisting has been relatively negative particularly as a private shareholder, as information flows often drop sharply and one is left to wait for the end game without being privy to what is going on in the interim and of course with little ability to sell the shares. So, I need to cogitate a little more in terms of my investment here but It is a good problem to be wrestling with.

Bluerill - thanks for clarifying. You appear to be much closer to this than most so it is good that we have someone posting facts rather than what most of us have to do which is to speculate. I am interested in the use of “we” throughout your post which rather implies a very close association wouldn’t you agree? Also, post-tender assuming that Tosca do not tender and the full 50m are removed this will take Tosca close to 75% allowing them to pass special resolutions on their own. Is this the plan in your opinion with the next move a delisting or something else?I have a fairly punchy holding here now so this is not a deramp!

Tosca bought Suntrusts shares? With 66% only another 9% before they can vote through most resolutions on their own.....

So it has taken the best part of 6 hours for them to return here after the RNS and a quiet and troll-free couple of weeks and they clearly needed some time this afternoon to mobilise the troops and try and come up with further scare stories but I guess that is what happens on here. Most of it is utter nonsense from those who have limited financial knowledge or company knowledge but will try and trade the takeover price movements. The Board and large shareholders call the shots now, not small fry PI’s but this is looking much brighter from where I am sitting. Time to sit back now until more news comes out and important not to feed those who want to spead doom and gloom.

Unsolicited, misleading, opportunistic sums it up nicely.

Got there a little quicker than I expected but with such a small free float and clear signals to the market the smart money will quickly jump onboard.

Wolfi - my views about Secker are well known on here. Why is he still the CEO? Why have our institutional backers not forced him out? Answers on a postcard please as I am totally baffled by the situation.

I would like to hear from AH asap and especially his comments about the convertible loans and whether this could be a challenge or not in the short term. the devil is in the detail as always but it may be that IOG simply rebuff the approach and not give RRE access to data room. Unlikely that they would go hostile but not impossible as that often depends on the size of the prize.

Given that the share price was 33P only 6 months ago and apart from the scare stories and, yes, delays announced the assets and potential remain so 40p is a starting point which large shareholders may consider IMO.